2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[lfromnj]

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/05/04/the-6th-district-food-chain-how-crypto-swallowed-the-race-for-a-new-congressional-seat/

By the way a bunch of rich crypto bros hopped into the new open Oregon seat.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/05/04/the-6th-district-food-chain-how-crypto-swallowed-the-race-for-a-new-congressional-seat/

By the way a bunch of rich crypto bros hopped into the new open Oregon seat.

Fairly standard platform for a PhD in Chemical Engineering

In November, Intel engineer Matt West first upended how this race might run with a pledge to spend whatever it would take to get through the primary. West, who owns between $1 million and $5 million in cryptocurrency, according to official disclosure forms, has put $400,000 into his own candidacy and raised another $400,000. He’s running on a left-wing platform: He’s a Democratic Socialists of America member and supports Medicare for All.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs need to relax it's not voting time yet it's 6 months out and Biden is at 45/50 he didn't win 60/40 and it a polarized nation D's can still win this Environment

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I am becoming increasingly convinced there will be a recession this year. I think that will severely damage democrats and maybe make this 2006 2.0.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah sure and we have 3.5 percent unemployment everywhere you go there is a help wanted sign

[wbrocks67]

GOP only up 1 in an internal?

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1523670309697515520

[kwabbit]

I am becoming increasingly convinced there will be a recession this year. I think that will severely damage democrats and maybe make this 2006 2.0.

Then Red Avs won’t be able to post about job numbers. It is pick your poison. Either inflation is going to remain high or the only economic ‘achievement’ of the Biden presidency will be gone as unemployment rises. With the cautiousness of the Fed, we’ll probably get some of both.

I don’t think it’ll change the circumstance of the election too much though. Americans already view the economy as bad. Becoming a different kind of bad won’t change the economic outlook. We’re already in a situation where economic conditions affect the assessment of the economy for about half of partisans. 2019 for example was a great economy and all Republicans and half of Democrats thought so. 2022 is a bad economy and all Republicans and half of Democrats think so. It would take a lot of GenMacArthur to think the economy is bad. If 9% inflation doesn’t deter his type, rising unemployment won’t either especially if he can tout lowering inflation.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am becoming increasingly convinced there will be a recession this year. I think that will severely damage democrats and maybe make this 2006 2.0.

Then Red Avs won’t be able to post about job numbers. It is pick your poison. Either inflation is going to remain high or the only economic ‘achievement’ of the Biden presidency will be gone as unemployment rises. With the cautiousness of the Fed, we’ll probably get some of both.

I don’t think it’ll change the circumstance of the election too much though. Americans already view the economy as bad. Becoming a different kind of bad won’t change the economic outlook. We’re already in a situation where economic conditions affect the assessment of the economy for about half of partisans. 2019 for example was a great economy and all Republicans and half of Democrats thought so. 2022 is a bad economy and all Republicans and half of Democrats think so. It would take a lot of GenMacArthur to think the economy is bad. If 9% inflation doesn’t deter his type, rising unemployment won’t either especially if he can tout lowering inflation.

You do realize Trump netted seats in the S in 2018 and the H , 2020 at the same Approvals as Biden 44/54 it's very hypocritical of Rs to call Biden out and he has the same Approvals as Trump and Trump was impeached, I find it very Hilarious that Rs call Biden out on his Approvals and Trump was never at 50 we still have to vote and there are zero state by state polls WI, MI and PA the big three that matters the most

LETS ME SAY THIS AGAIN POLLS DONT MATTER UNTIL WE VOTE

[Matty]

GOP only up 1 in an internal?

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1523670309697515520

Doesn’t square with CNN and FOX having them up 7

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’d really like a poll asking voters how much they care about abortion rights, and if they care enough for it to affect their vote in November. I understand that abortion rights are important to the activist wing of the Democratic Party but how much do older voters (who are overwhelmingly more likely to vote) actually care about whether abortion is legal in their state or not?

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1522670972909805569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

That’s not necessarily what I meant. It is possible to give an opinion on a certain topic when given a menu of options on a poll without actually personally caring much about it. For example, I couldn’t care less whether or not pangolins go extinct but if asked on a poll, I would say I support efforts to maintain their habitat & environments. That does not mean I would necessarily be motivated to vote for a candidate who believes the same as me or even list it as a top ten in terms of my political priorities.

Abortion is already functionally illegal in places like Texas but just how many women think about abortions as a serious issue that affects their daily lives? How many women even ever get abortions? The point I am trying to make is that I do not think this will be as big of an issue as Democrats think it will be in rallying midterm voters. If the GOP somehow came after contraception/birth control, though? Or if they targeted pornography? *That* certainly would.

One in four women are expected to get an abortion before the age of 45. That's a lot.

https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2017/abortion-common-experience-us-women-despite-dramatic-declines-rates

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1523707506215763969

never heard of this firm, but another one for the pile

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news it looks like Abortion does matter CCM and Hassan are gonna win based on abortion

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1524488060079116288

Seems like Democrats might get a real recruit against Salazar.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1524488060079116288

Seems like Democrats might get a real recruit against Salazar.

Still 2022 is prolly the wrong year. She really doesn't have to outperform Biden with minorities by much though as the district is only Trump + 1, however, there will be a defacto rightwards shifts in a lot of the educated whiter parts of the district which FL-27 actually has quite a bit of.

[Matty]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

[SnowLabrador]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Yeah, Roe being overturned isn't going to save Democrats. This country is doomed.

[ElectionsGuy]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/05/12/ben-diamond-suspends-bid-for-pinellas-congressional-seat-citing-desantis-map/

Democratic candidate with 800k on hand drops out

[OSR stands with Israel]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

[Xing]

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

[MT Treasurer]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Yeah, Roe being overturned isn't going to save Democrats.

Abortion has never been a winning issue for Democrats and Roe has been a contentious topic in every presidential race I can remember, so not sure what is supposed to be surprising about that?

When the Obama 2012 campaign made it an issue, they only did it through careful and select targeting directed at segments of the electorate already favorably disposed to them (e.g. only on certain radio stations), not in a way that would have attracted the attention of the entire electorate or antagonized other voters.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Yeah, Roe being overturned isn't going to save Democrats.

Abortion has never been a winning issue for Democrats and Roe has been a contentious topic in every presidential race I can remember, so not sure what is supposed to be surprising about that?

When the Obama 2012 campaign made it an issue, they only did it through careful and select targeting directed at segments of the electorate already favorably disposed to them (e.g. only on certain radio stations), not in a way that would have attracted the attention of the entire electorate or antagonized other voters.

I can’t imagine it’s helping with Hispanics that MSNBC types are talking about abortion “joyfully”. The best thing for R’s is to overturn it in the middle of inflation and move on. Dems will look more and more out of touch if they keep talking about it in the midst of other issues

[MT Treasurer]

I can’t imagine it’s helping with Hispanics that MSNBC types are talking about abortion “joyfully”. The best thing for R’s is to overturn it in the middle of inflation and move on. Dems will look more and more out of touch if they keep talking about it in the midst of other issues

Yes, people forget that there’s always two sides to the "extremism" playbook, especially when it comes to social and cultural issues. Yes, it would be lunacy to run on banning contraception or whatever, but virtually no Republican is actually doing that — on the other hand, most Democrats have made it abundantly clear that they support no restrictions on abortion whatsoever, so we’re not talking about two 'extreme' positions that are equally represented in political discourse/media/political campaigns. At the end of the day, "leaving it up to the voters of our state to decide this painful issue" is a far less 'extremist' position to take than having to defend one's support for late-term abortions up to/close to the moment of birth.

I have little doubt that Democrats will try to turn this into the dominant issue solely because their internal polling shows a majority of swing state/national voters identifying as 'pro-choice' or whatever — if there’s anything Democrats are good at, it’s losing winnable elections by playing into the GOP's hands on cultural issues. It’s been a while since it was this easy to run against the party in power.

[ElectionsGuy]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

Everybody seems to think this now but I don't think that's actually accurate. Why is it that during the summer of 2020, Biden and Democrats had their largest polling leads, and Trump had his lowest approval? It's understandable to think this in retrospect to explain how badly wrong the expectations were. But at the time that defunding the police was becoming trendy, it wasn't exactly helping Republicans, and everybody here thought the general unease in the country would hurt Trump (it did) even if some of their antics backfired.

Btw, I'm not totally sold on the idea that it won't help Democrats at all. It will probably juice their turnout a bit. But it won't fix their core issues, which have to with Biden and the economy.

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

Well yeah, these last few months haven't exactly been great for the left. And that's why the reaction has been what it's been. When you're not used to losing, it hurts. From the end of the 2016 election all the way to late 2021, the left has broadly won the culture and the political battles, and ideologically captured nearly every institution in American life, with the only exception being the Supreme Court?

How much you want to bet, as soon as this decision actually comes down, if it even comes down the way everybody's assuming it will, that big corporations everywhere will put out statements condemning the court decision, claiming it's an attack on women's rights, and providing financial cover for abortion expenses? We still haven't found the leaker apparently, which speaks volumes.

[Xing]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

Everybody seems to think this now but I don't think that's actually accurate. Why is it that during the summer of 2020, Biden and Democrats had their largest polling leads, and Trump had his lowest approval? It's understandable to think this in retrospect to explain how badly wrong the expectations were. But at the time that defunding the police was becoming trendy, it wasn't exactly helping Republicans, and everybody here thought the general unease in the country would hurt Trump (it did) even if some of their antics backfired.

Btw, I'm not totally sold on the idea that it won't help Democrats at all. It will probably juice their turnout a bit. But it won't fix their core issues, which have to with Biden and the economy.

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

Well yeah, these last few months haven't exactly been great for the left. And that's why the reaction has been what it's been. When you're not used to losing, it hurts. From the end of the 2016 election all the way to late 2021, the left has broadly won the culture and the political battles, and ideologically captured nearly every institution in American life, with the only exception being the Supreme Court?

How much you want to bet, as soon as this decision actually comes down, if it even comes down the way everybody's assuming it will, that big corporations everywhere will put out statements condemning the court decision, claiming it's an attack on women's rights, and providing financial cover for abortion expenses? We still haven't found the leaker apparently, which speaks volumes.

The Democratic Party won some victories in 2018 and to an extent in 2020, though to say that the left is in control of any institution is to either greatly misunderstand what the left is, or move the goalposts very far to the right. Institutions are somewhat favorable to corporate Democrats (so long as they vow not to fundamentally change the status quo much), but are probably more hostile to the actual left than they are to Trump, with the 2016 and 2020 primaries being prime examples of this. And much of Biden's presidency has been anything but victorious for the left. He was already an enormous compromise for us, and even his watered down agenda has been all but derailed.

If the networks do this, it is for ratings, not because they truly "support" the left. They love a good conflict more than anything, and if Democrats were to, say, strengthen gun control, we'd never hear the end about how much they were tearing America apart and showing that they don't care about "real Americans."

As a left-winger, I am so unused to winning that it almost feels weird when my ideology actually scores something resembling a victory.