Japan Oct 22 2017

[Dereich]

"Leaked" LDP poll from 10/7-10/9.  LDP polls usually underestimate LDP as to lower expectations so  one should view this poll as a floor for LDP

LDP  239
KP     34
NPD     1
JRP    25
HP   100 
CDP   29
SDP     2
JCP    22 
Ind    13  (most likely something like 3 pro-LDP 10 anti-LDP )

Looks like the surprise here is how strong JRP is.  25 seats for JRP means they will sweep Osaka or get to around 10% of the PR vote.  Either one would be a victory for JRP.

Is there any chance this is being "leaked" to prop up JRP? A three way split in the opposition could be even more advantageous than a two way split.

[Dereich]

Will any of the HP candidates who won defect not to CDP but instead to LDP? It's not like such a thing would be unprecedented with the LDP's existing "if you win, you're LDP" policy for independents and the fact that many of the HP/DP right were LDP rebels in the first place.

I can't imagine the DP right will be happy to humiliatingly fall into line with a bunch of people they just tried to throw under the bus by teaming up with Koike.

[Dereich]

This is probably a really stupid question but I can't find an answer to it anywhere. 

Why was this election considered good for Abe if his party ended up losing seats? 

Simple. For 90% of the campaign, Abe was expected to lose (much?) more.

This, plus Abe ended up hobbling a rising star (Koike) instead of giving her time to assemble a party that could mount a credible challenge to the LDP in the future.