2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored

[Smash255]

I could see the Democratic Presidential candidate getting 45%-47% of the vote in North Carolina in 2008.

How do you explain neither Clinton nor Obama making it out of the primary?

Kerry received a little under 44% of the vote in a year the GOP won nationally by about 2.5%.  Considering how NC is trending and the fact that the GOP is unlikely to win by 2.5% nationally on the Pres level (or win at all) I would say its very likely the Dems including Clinton or Obama would get 45% easy in NC

[Smash255]

NC trended about 3 and a half points compared to the national average between 2000 and 2004 toward the Democrats.  Its not moving like Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado or Virginia, but their is some Democratic movement in the state, in part due to all the northeast (NY especially) transplants who have moved down to Charlotte and Raleigh.   A 50/50 election would likely give the GOP about a 7 point or so victory (obviously less if its Edwards).  That would  give he Dems 46% (assuming no real strong 3rd party challenge).  Dems win by a few points nationally and its likely a bit higher than that.

[Smash255]

If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Yeah, it went down .01 percent, but he got about 300,000 more votes than he did in 2000.  Maybe Johnny helped bring him down that notch, but his slight drop doesn't mean anything. North Carolina isn't trending, all I know is I don't like Dole, and I hope she loses.

Saying that a candidate got x more votes than he did in a previous election is meaningless.  I hear this all the time: "George W. Bush got more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of America."  Well yes, he did.  Know who got the second most votes?  John Kerry, his opponent.  It's called population growth.

 I'm just stating the facts. It was mentioned that he got a lower percentage in 2004 than in 2000, and I mentioned that it was only .01 percent less, but he got more votes. I understand population growth, but his drop in 2004 is anything major.

 I don't like being associated with the right wing loons who always drool over the 2004 election "ZOMG! BUSH GOT MORE VOTES THAN REAGAN!1! HE'S PWND KERRY WORSE THAN MONDALE11!!"

However, his margin of victory dropped when his national margin increased.  In 04 NC was more than 13 points more GOP than the national average, in 2004 it was less than 10.  So its more than just a .01 trend because you really have to look at how it compares to the national margin.  Its not the hard trend you see in NH, VT or even VA but its still a bit of a trend which is very liekly to continue with all those from the northeast moving down to the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte areas