What districts would have Dems won back if not for gerrymandering?

[Miles]

How bout OH-06? Would Athens County have been enough to give Wilson a win?

[Miles]

I am just assuming the GOP controlled legislature states didn't change anything from 2000 maps. Of course NC-2 was very gerrymandered, a fair NC map would probably have a Wake County based district that takes up most if not all of the county. And I have to keep GOP in PA-12 b/c that seat was being eliminated regardless, although the Democrats would have chopped up Pittsburgh.

At the risk of turning this into another NC redistricting thread, this is my fair map of NC:




The Democrats lose CD2 but get another D-leaning seat in the Triad.

[Miles]

Well, without any gerrymandering, the NC Democrats would have gained back 3 or 4 seats.

[Miles]

I hate to defend krazen and his excessive liberal-bashing, but the PA Democratic map was pretty pitiful.

[Miles]

Those districts are beautiful.

Thanks!

If you'd like, we did a whole thread on that least summer. I came up with a court-drawn map in that thread too, but I recently went back and made a few tweaks (which resulted in the map I posted here).

As I see you're new, welcome!

[Miles]

Districts 7 and 8 are at least vulnerable to Democrats in bad election years for Republicans.

These are the numbers from the 2012 Lt. Governor race (which was 50/50); this provides a better picture of the non-Presidential fundamentals of the state.



CD7 is a perfect bellwether for the state, as Forest carried it by 351 votes out of 314K cast. Coleman would have also flipped CD8.

Coleman vs Obama:



With  the exception of the Raleigh district, Coleman did noticeably better in the eastern half of the state while running a point or two behind Obama in the urban districts.

[Miles]

snip

The 1st Congressional District includes almost all of Cincinnati, except for its affluent eastern edge



The 2000 version carved nearly 60k people out of a city of 330k. Thus only about 82% of Cincinatti was in that version of the 1st district.

As usual, Krazen is correct. In some ways, the House is the only bastion of fair repiublican treatment with the Senate and Presidency being gerrymadered for the Democrats.

[Miles]

I would think that Mr. Phips's inaccurate post about the history of OH-01 would merit your purple haired girl and not this other guy's accurate one.

Oh, I forgot, pop culture references are over your head.  Sorry!

[Miles]

My fair LA:



Bringing CD2 into Lafayette makes CD6 more compact and competitive. Romney actually performed worse than McCain, winning it 56/42 instead of 58/41.

CD4 would be better for Republicans, at 60/38 Romney.

CD3 is more of a fair fight, at least on the R side. It splites 55/45 in favor of Boustany instead of 75/25, as with the actual map.