British Local Elections, May 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have underperformed - often very badly - in local elections in Walsall since the 1990s as the local party's image has been poor since a series of incidents involving a man with the nickname 'Citizen Dave' and there has also been constant problems with splint groups (often involving people associated with sad individual). It sounds like a parody, but unfortunately isn't. There have recently been image problems of a different nature: Sean Coughlan, who was the group leader for years and led the council between 2016 and 2018, was convicted on a sex offence charge in 2022. As to the present mess, it isn't a great secret to say that there would have been some sort of blow-up soon even without another war in the Middle East: I'm not sure whether a formal complaint had yet been lodged, but serious accusations (including footage) of rather grim sectarian behaviour from the then group leader and at least one other councillor had been doing the rounds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The very odd wording ought to raise a few eyebrows. I suspect there are multiple factors at play and, reading between the lines and noting some of the specific words used, would be surprised if selection issues (whether shortlisting, deselections etc.) are that far from the picture. It's a fairly small group and I suspect most (all?) know each other very well: there can often be resentment at outsiders (even if it's just Region) having a poke about when that's the case. There's also the possibility of this being, perhaps in part, fallout from the Rochdale fiasco: the disendorsed Labour candidate was (is) a county councillor for one of the Nelson divisions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think everywhere where they have a full slate or close to one they were close to that last year as well? Which is not a great sign for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Low turnout elections (in areas that are rather working class and rather white, turnout in local elections can sometimes be considerably lower than half seen at a GE) in which most people are motivated by things like bin collections ought to be good territory for fringe parties, full stop.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

This is Arfon CLP erasure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we must have polling for these contests, can it perhaps be by firms that actually have reasonable (I'm not even demanding 'good') reputations?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More in Common's output has never been much good, and the internals of some of these look, how do we say, 'clown car'. They may be right (these contests are rather odd affairs) but if they are it will generally be by accident. Again, it's striking that the only firms polling these elections are not very credible ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One curiosity is that for all of these polls they have applied a very heavy turnout weight, but have not weighted for SES in any form at all and have not weighted based on geographical sub-regions of some kind either. Leaving any other issues aside, there are a few obvious problems that could arise from that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These have been a very low-profile set of locals for the most part, which reflects the need for everyone to conserve resources and keep their powder dry for the main event.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It’s strange when you think about it that Street is re-standing; he’s had two terms, was clearly livid about HS2 and faces working largely with a Labour Government.

I think the relatively powerless nature of these posts - they're basically transport commissioners with a few other things added on depending on the area in question - encourages this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The pollworkers at the village hall looked rather startled to see a small group of people walking in. Today has not been busy, they say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have serious doubts. That would be a massive blow to Labour and would mean every single poll was completely off.  If i was a Labour MP I would call on Starmer to resign if that came to fruition.

If Khan were to lose (which remains unlikely, though the general feeling within the Labour Party throughout has been that the result is likely to be closer than it 'ought' to be as much of Labour's local elections vote does not like Khan) then it would be on no one but himself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

why would it be on him?

Because he is the incumbent of eight years and is running on his record, much of which is controversial? And unlike most local elections, this is a post with a significant amount of media attention.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This possibly might be the latest time on a local elections night that precisely nil results have been declared. I expect the first might be one of the many by-elections taking place, as was the case, IIRC, last year.

This is because all of these half-joke 'Commissioner' and 'Mayor' posts clog up time as all ballots must be sorted through and verified separately for the different elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

big surprise for Reform there.

UKIP won the word in 2019.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There seems to be some dispute as to the exact figures for the Greens in Sunderland St Anne's (it's late and fingers slip on keyboards) not that it makes any fundamental difference. Very poor result in defence, it hardly needs to be pointed out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of these Con figures in Sun'lun are absolutely abysmal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have made another gain in Sunderland.

Others are beginning to note on twitter that the Reform numbers are still ways down on Brexit Party numbers in the past, but their strength in various wards correlates.

There are correlations a long way back with other parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ooof, those Ryhope numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something people who are not British (or who have not followed these things before) should note is that local factors are very important in shaping some results, even if national patterns are what they are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Conservative who nearly took the Gosforth ward in Newcastle off the LibDems last year has pulled it off this year, in a rather rare (thus far) bright spot for them. This is a very middle class, very affluent, ward, on some metrics the most prosperous in the entire North East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's definitely what happened in South Tyneside, and could in later Southeast councils. Question is...why. it's not on the council's misbehaving list as Teale likes to call it. The greens were not the beneficiaries. It think it was mentioned somewhere that local labour were just very complacent in 2023, maybe a repeat?

There have been long-running issues for a time, but there has been a rather nasty bin strike there and I think it is still ongoing. Voters tend to get cross when rubbish piles up in the streets and so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where is Rushmoor?

Northern Hampshire. Aldershot and Farnborough. Aldershot is a famous army town and Farnborough is associated with aviation and related military research (if not to the extent that it used to be).