British Local Elections, May 2024

[IceAgeComing]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

The official reason was that SV was 'overcomplicated and confusing' but ultimately its because at that point the Tories believed it would benefit them - Labour losing votes to the Lib Dems and Greens that they previously would have gotten back through preferences; while the Tories would have gotten less from the Lib Dems and then the small number of right wing independent. With the rise of Reform that balance shifts I think; especially factoring in other Mayoral/PCC elections where Reform might pose more of a risk.

Its worth noting that SV was far from perfect and almost relied on a core two party system to work as intended: in London since 2004 it allowed voters to vote for a minority party knowing that ultimately they could back their preference of the big two. However in the 2000 election it sort of posed issues for people that weren't Labour/Tory/Livingstone voters - a smart voter in those elections had some clear options (Livingstone voters probably preference Labour, the Tories I would suspect would have went for Norris over Livingstone but who knows; Labour probably more split than people think) but if you were a Lib Dem/minor party voter then you still had to think tactically about that second preference in order to make sure it counted. To give a more relevant modern example: imagine a place where the Greens are locally strong, Labour have a decent core vote and so they are roughly even and more voter blocks preference each other and the Conservatives can probably get 45% in a good year: under FPTP they win on split votes; under SV I suspect they win as Lib Dem and other votes scatter to the wrong candidate; while under AV you would see a more accurate reflection as anti-Tory Lib Dems could rank the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour in any order and their vote would naturally flow to the biggest anti-Tory candidate. Traditional AV is better in every way; it makes more sense ('rank candidates in the order of your preference, as many as you would like'); it allows voters more choice and in more complex elections it gives voters a firm ability to influence the final result no matter what.

[IceAgeComing]

Out of pure curiousity I looked up the Tees Valley polls from 2021 - only had two; both had Houchen in the low 60s and he ended up getting 73% so perhaps an indication that you should hold polling with a pinch of salt - especially because the two 2021 polls were Opinium and Yougov who have a decent reputation. Also interesting to note that the biggest percentage increase in the Tory vote in that election was in Hartlepool which is where they had the famous by-election that they gained - turnout was also at its highest there which might have a small impact on the overall position. Although as I've said before I don't think 2021 is the election to look at here: I'd go back to 2017 where Houchen just won (in I believe an upset in a very good Conservative year).

Anecdotal evidence is a bit useless: in the bits of Darlington I live around and frequent I've seen more Labour posters/boards up in and around houses than Houchen ones; I've also seen Labour canvassing and not the Tories (although my ward is fairly safe Labour which might explain why - although a decent minority of Tories that I think would be big enough to canvass) although only a few times: it really has not felt like a close election from that base. Although my previous experience of that was the mid-2010s elections in Scotland where the SNP ran some impressively large operations all over the place and the Tories were motivated so perhaps not that representative!

[IceAgeComing]

Voted today in Darlington (Labour in both Mayoral and PCC election - both elections just the three main parties which is a first for me by virtue of only ever voting before in Scotland where the SNP always stood; and in a 80% Labour bit of London where the Greens were the second party). The turnout report was that things were 'surprisingly steady' - I had to queue for a whole 30 seconds when I went in and I'd say there were five or six people around when I voted (at approx. 5:30pm).

Have zero idea what this means - my ward is generally a safe Labour ward (voted 60/30 Labour in 2023; even in the 2019 council elections Labour won by 6% and that was because turnout was incredibly low rather than the Tories actually doing well) so if my polling station is representative that probably is good for Labour - but also you wonder if Houchen would benefit from a higher turnout if it is his voters coming out while the Labour guy won't have any sort of personal vote. If the UK was more modern in its election processes and actually reported ward/polling place figures I'd actually have an answer to this by this time tomorrow; but instead I'll have to make assumptions on the overall figures.

[IceAgeComing]

Swings I've seen from London are approx. 5% from Conservatives to Labour - so polls will be out again but showing the right result. The caveat is that I don't think we've had outer London boroughs in yet; especially the areas where you might expect an anti-Khan backlash if one exists.

West Midlands appears to be very close - a lot better for Labour than they were expectation managing yesterday.