House Districts where the General Election matters

[traininthedistance]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07.  

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

I think the Republican district that should get most blown up in an even-handed map is actually Runyan's.  Burlington and Ocean should be anchoring two separate districts, as they are separated by:

* the Pinelands (the built-up areas of both counties are near the water)
* metro areas (Burlington and Mercer are part of the Philly metro, Ocean is in the NYC metro)
* political makeup (Burlington is D, Ocean is R).

A non-gerrymandered map all but requires that the bulk of Burlington and Mercer form NJ-3, and the fact that this would throw Runyan, Smith, *and* Holt together (and leave a nice, empty, logical Middlesex district in its wake) be damned.

This map, which I posted a very long time ago, remains what I firmly believe to be the sanest possible NJ configuration.  Lance, Smith, Holt, Pallone, and Runyan would all have reason to be upset with it.  (Holt and whichever of Smith/Runyan was willing to move to Ocean County would be bothered the least, of course.)

Okay, I suppose Lance would have an excellent chance of beating Garrett in the primary, come to think of it.

[traininthedistance]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07.  

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

I think the Republican district that should get most blown up in an even-handed map is actually Runyan's.  Burlington and Ocean should be anchoring two separate districts, as they are separated by:

* the Pinelands (the built-up areas of both counties are near the water)
* metro areas (Burlington and Mercer are part of the Philly metro, Ocean is in the NYC metro)
* political makeup (Burlington is D, Ocean is R).

A non-gerrymandered map all but requires that the bulk of Burlington and Mercer form NJ-3, and the fact that this would throw Runyan, Smith, *and* Holt together (and leave a nice, empty, logical Middlesex district in its wake) be damned.

This map, which I posted a very long time ago, remains what I firmly believe to be the sanest possible NJ configuration.  Lance, Smith, Holt, Pallone, and Runyan would all have reason to be upset with it.  (Holt and whichever of Smith/Runyan was willing to move to Ocean County would be bothered the least, of course.)

Okay, I suppose Lance would have an excellent chance of beating Garrett in the primary, come to think of it.

This map is prime example of drawing a D gerrymandering while spewing utter nonsense about fairness. The heavy D parts of Mercer are in the New York metro and there is far more frequent mass transit to New York than there is to Philadelphia from Mercer County. Also note of course the arbitrary selection of the Republican parts of Ocean County into the 4th rather than the 6th.

Runyan of course won the Burlington portion of his seat.


Roughly speaking, the incredibly obvious place to cut the metros is I-195. North Mercer has a large amount of folks who associate with areas in Middlesex and Somerset Counties up Rt 1 and not Evesham way to the south.

Actually, the obvious place to cut the metros is the old East Jersey/West Jersey dividing line, which just so conveniently happens to be the line between Burlington and Ocean.  It sure doesn't make any sense for towns like Toms River and Brick to be in a Philly metro district, when they get their media and their settlement patterns from New York instead.  Despite the fact they're south of I-195.

I will grant that Princeton is more aligned with NYC than Philadelphia- however, Trenton is more aligned with Philadelphia.  Still better than crossing the Pinelands.

Also, of course, all of Ocean County is in the 4th here, I assume you meant Monmouth.  And that boundary was drawn for the sake of clean lines, rather than cutting out R areas- if I was trying to cut out the heaviest R areas, I'd have snaked up to Holmdel or taken in the panhandle rather than grabbing Freehold, which is more moderate.  Now, if you were trying to enact an R gerrymander while trying to keep to fair principles, I could envision the Ocean County district snaking up the coast as well.  It would be uglier than what I have, but certainly more defensible than the Pinelands crossing.

EDIT: The Yankees-Phillies map here is a good illustration of what I'm trying to say, and why I-195 is a far, far, far worse line than the Burlington-Ocean boundary.

[traininthedistance]

This map is prime example of drawing a D gerrymandering while spewing utter nonsense about fairness.

Forgot to point out earlier that no D gerrymander would draw anything like my original NJ-6.  If it was more favorable to Dems than the old map, that's because the old map was functionally an R gerrymander, especially in South Jersey.

Everything from Lacey on South in Ocean County has a far larger portion of Eagles fans than Princeton, Lawrence, West Windsor, East Windsor, all of which are stocked with Giants fans. You would at least have a barely defensible point about Brick being an NYC town if you didn't put those towns in the 3rd district. Placing heavily liberal NYC towns in a South Jersey district is no more defensible than placing conservative NYC towns in a South Jersey district, especially when there is Eagles territory or split territory like Jackson, Plumstead available.

Lacey is definitely NYC exurb territory.  I've been there, I used to know people who commuted an hour-plus up the GSP from there.

I'll grant that you have a point about LBI and the towns south of Lacey, where it does start to switch over.

Even Trenton Mass Transit has more frequent commuter trips north to Newark/NYC than South. New York Sports franchises have acquired minor league franchises in Trenton over the last decade. This is 2012, not 1992. The NYC metro has built up and pushed south, and the Mercer County population growth is primarily in the NYC leaning areas.

While the NJT line has more frequent service to Trenton than SEPTA, that's less a function of Trenton being a NYC-affiliated hub and more a function of the relative levels of service all throughout the two agencies, and elsewhere on the line.  The Northeast Corridor is quite possibly the busiest commuter line in the nation largely on the back of Princeton Junction, Metropark, and Newark, whereas SEPTA doesn't go more than half-hourly for any line, ever.

And you're also forgetting about SEPTA's line to West Trenton (in Ewing), as well as the RiverLINE from Trenton (which has three stops) to Camden.  I've taken the RiverLINE a lot and it's a good reminder that the western portion of Mercer, at least, does fit in well with Burlington. (I'll concede this is far less true for Princeton, West Windsor, and East Windsor.)

As for the Trenton Devils, well of course a "New Jersey" team that has historically had a fanbase in the northern part of the state is going to try and expand their following further south, in an effort to brand themselves as the team for all of New Jersey.

I wouldn't lump any of Somerset with Middlesex, especially the northern part that includes Woodbridge and New Brunswick. Really, the only town in Somerset that really fits in well with that district is Franklin Twp. It doesn't pass the "communities of interest" smell test.

The southern part of Somerset doesn't really belong with the areas north of the Raritan, either: Montgomery Twp., at least, is basically a Princeton satellite.  Though they do fit better with southern Middlesex, sure.  That area is more "Central Jersey" and oriented toward Princeton and New Brunswick, whereas northern Somerset is more "North Jersey" and of a piece with Morris instead.  Dividing Somerset as I did is excellent CoI, though I'll grant maybe it was attached to the wrong half of Middlesex.

So... I think you can in fact make a  case that east Mercer should point north, and the southern tip of Ocean should be in a more unambiguously South Jersey district.  That district, of course, should be LoBiondo's.  Going up the coast that way is infinitely better than the Pines crossing.  So, we rotate things and come up with NJ, Mark II:



It sacrifices the beauty of putting Ocean all in one district, but besides that I'll grant it's somewhat better on the CoI/metro area front.