ECRI again sticking to its guns - double's down again on its recession call

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/24/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

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those who know my history on this forum know I've been a follower of this firm for well over 10 years...it's going to be very interesting to me to see if ECRI retains their unmatched record for calling turns of the business cycle.

In September 2011, they predicted a new US Recession, starting sometime between 2011Q4 and 2012Q2...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

their director made the TV rounds today, you can follow some of their arguments using the following video links:

Velocity of money dropping
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5051

US Growth slowing, not picking up
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5049

US Growth at 21 month low
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5047

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Velocity of Money...

help me find some charts showing velocity of money

http://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Velocity-Of-Money-chart/M1/

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

couple of more charts showing velocity of money:

M1 velocity
http://ycharts.com/indicators/velocity_of_m1_money_stock

M2 velocity
http://ycharts.com/indicators/velocity_of_m2_money_stock

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This chart is hardly a homerun for the case that M1 velocity is a leading indicator of recessions.

you missed their point:  velocity has fallen off a cliff, and the only thing holding the house of cards up is massive money pumping by the Fed.