How do high median income (>200k/year) communities swing?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm talking about places like the Upper East Side in NY, Darien CT, McLean in NOVA, The Villages in Houston, Buckhead GA, some pockets of Silicon Valley, ect.

There are reasons to believe they could swing either way. In both 2016 and 2020, these communities generally swung left with the most notable exceptions being some wealthy enclaves in Florida.

These communities skew very college educated and older; if we see an increase in educational polarization and a decrease in age polarization as some polls suggests, one may expect these communities to swing to Biden again.

However, a lot of people have argued that 2020 was the pinnacle of Dem support in these places and many who held their nose and voted for Biden in 2020 are unhappy and won't vote for him again in 2024.

What do ya'll think?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it depends on how educated they are and how much they hate Trump versus being tepid about Biden.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Darien is the home of the $18 Big Mac meal. It is definitely swinging R.

[Dan the Roman]

D relative to 2012 and earlier. R relative to 2020 and even 2022.

Jan 6(which has faded a bit and also been culturally transformed in certain finance/tech circles) and Dobbs(which dosent effect them) versus Campus unrest/blaming Democrats for the fiasco which modern college admissions has transformed into for their kids or will in the future/perception of drift/a strong desire not to be on the same side with leftwing urbanites for which student loans and opposing protests are a good proxy

On net a lot pushing them in that direction.

But they will still be much more Democratic than Pre-Trump and very high turnout for Biden. Just less extreme

There has been a cultural shift. But it's muted by Trump. Haley would have caused the bottom to fall out as these communities reasserrted their self identity by reverting to near 2004 margins as "punishment" for having been forced to vote Democratic during the Trump years.

[SnowLabrador]

Mine's probably swinging left. People here HATE Trump. But even if nobody in Massachusetts voted for Trump, he'd still be favored for this election, which is one reason we must end the Electoral College.

[kwabbit]

They'll probably swing left again. However, really high income places did not swing that much from 2016 to 2020, it was really the generic middle to upper middle class suburb that swung a lot. None of the third party options seem appealing to them. If the Libertarian ticket had someone high profile then I could see a big vote, but Kennedy is overtly appealing to lower SES demographics. Someone like John Anderson would get 20% though.

[Skill and Chance]

I could really see this going either way.  Your generic doctor/lawyer couple around $200-300K is probably swinging left, but $1M+ earners are pretty clearly swinging right. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know anyone in my law circles that are flipping votes to Trump, but most of us are beginning to accept Trump will be win the election. Pretty sad times.

[ProgressiveModerate]

They'll probably swing left again. However, really high income places did not swing that much from 2016 to 2020, it was really the generic middle to upper middle class suburb that swung a lot. None of the third party options seem appealing to them. If the Libertarian ticket had someone high profile then I could see a big vote, but Kennedy is overtly appealing to lower SES demographics. Someone like John Anderson would get 20% though.

I think one difference between high income suburbs and upper-middle income suburbs is that higher-income suburbs generally have very slow growth and turnover in addition to high turnout - the 2016 electorate and 2020 electorates in these types of places were likely very similar. You also have strict zoning in these communities which means very few if any new homes were added since 2016.

In these upper-middle-class suburbs (think much of Collin County TX for instance), you have much higher turnover. Additionally, we saw big jumps in turnout, we see rapidly increasing number of homes being built, and census numbers suggests these types of places are rapidly getting more diverse while the wealthiest communities remain very white. So it's reasonable to assume the 2020 electorate was very different and likely more Dem favorable than the 2016 electorate in these middle/upper-middle class type suburbs.

[lfromnj]

Probably somewhat left but a Jewish rightward swing could dent it somewhat.