🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

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https://twitter.com/lientje1967/status/1552629628732416000

Death threats for the leader of BBB. They've decided to be more calm with upcoming media visits.

Protests currently still ongoing, and escalating.



Government approval rating is tanking (actually already started on low approval).

Some analysis i found and that i agree with:

This government was already unpopular when it started as it was a continuation of the previous Rutte III govt that collapsed over a big scandal. And then the country was without a functioning govt for a year.

Since then, D66 has lost voters to its left who think the govt is too economically right-wing and unambitious on the environment

VVD and CDA have lost many voters to their right (mostly BBB) who are unhappy over the govt's nitrogen pollution and (for the VVD) migration policies

So the govt is in a difficult place, especially on nitrogen pollution:

D66 is vulnerable to their voters who want MORE action to cut agriculture so homes can be built and nature saved

VVD/CDA are vulnerable as their voters want LESS action and are more supportive of the farmers

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BBB won 58.8% of the vote in rural Tubbergen, Overijssel. Complete bloodbath for every other party. CDA lost three quarters of their vote in their former stronghold, down to 11% from 42%.

Turnout increased by 16% (up from 60 to 76)

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The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

Low electoral threshold and at large lists, and less party financing than elsewhere.

Belgium has a high electoral threshold (and for local / regionalized lists), meaning you need to get proportionally higher percentage of votes in each region to get a seat. The financing for parties is much higher meaning it is harder to make a breakthrough.

Simply said, the system in the Netherlands is much more friendly for new parties to have an electoral breaktrough given the democracy is more direct.

The system can be called hyperproportional, for example the USA has 2 major parties but has virtually no proportional electoral process, but winner takes it all system (exc for presidential primaries).

This leads to a political culture where a vote for a different party isn't necessarily a wasted vote, meaning people are more open to vote for minor parties.

BBB had some visibility due to winning 1 seat last time in parliamentary elections. The person elected made good use of that seat in the nitrogen debate, meaning she got a lot of visibility for only having 1 seat, increasing name recognition etc.

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Hope to god Wilders never gets to be pm just a disaster all around that would be

Nonetheless, the Netherlands should have a five-percent threshold like Germany to make government formation much easier. It's kind of weird a party only needs around 0.6% of the vote to win a seat.

Undemocratic.

Electoral thresholds are idiotic.

If you care about the stuff you're stating, don't lose elections and listen to people. That's the last you do.

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Question for those who know more about Dutch politics, but image in English speaking world is Netherlands is a fairly progressive country yet seems in almost every election, far more vote for right leaning parties than left leaning even though right wing quite diverse.  What is reason for that and is Netherlands really that progressive or is that more an image some have from just visiting Amsterdam which is quite progressive?

I get cross country comparisons bad idea but seems right in Netherlands gets more than right does in Australia, Canada, UK & US even though US has image of being a fairly right leaning country while other three mixed but generally seen by outsiders as more conservative than Netherlands.  So is image of country false, or is right different than Anglosphere thus bad comparison?

It's because the Netherlands being progressive is kinda a myth. Its even to the right of belgium. Maybe flemish voters are more right wing but the systems are more right wing.

Sure in terms of economical issues, they're far to the left of the USA. But the point is, everyone in Europe and everyone in the world is, aside of maybe Israel.

Even the far right supports universal healthcare. It's consensus. It's commonly accepted. No-one questions that. It's not even a political issue.

Universal healthcare is like slavery here. The debate is settled.

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They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

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Timmermans is such a jerk and idiot though, i would not have voted for him. Neither on D66 who seems totally clueless esp. in his speech. Weakest speech of the evening. The interview with the VVD chairwoman was also very embarrassing, and probably the only good thing D66 chair did was criticizing VVD but really if you yourself win 10 seats and call yourself happy with that as D66, that's probably the silliest thing i've heard the entire evening.

I don't think I could see myself ever supporting those two. I like Jesse Klaver but Timmermans is stupid. I would have voted PvdD.

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I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

That is my question but seems in many countries with things bad, people for whatever reason like to go after those weaker than them not stronger thus why right wing populists succeeding and left failing.  A lot of it is emotional not well thought out.

If you don't throw money to voters you are just left with a social agenda.

So then how come we aren't seeing Bernie Sanders type parties going anywhere in Europe?  While that is not my type of politics, at least that style of populism I understand more than right wing type.

Because what Bernie Sanders advocate for in the USA is the status quo in Europe.

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They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

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They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

I think you underestimate how many people on the right support Israel. And it is not just about Denk. It is about the slogan, the protests. Denk is just as irrelevant as PvdD

It's not like people who hate DENK in 2023 didn't hate DENK in 2021 and they got far more coverage in the past. So an anti-DENK vote would have more made sense back than.

In fact the pro-Palestine positions would have more appeal than pro-Erdogan sentiment across the spectrum. Perhaps not really on the right that always used them as a scapegoat. But on the left where more people would support the Palestinian cause.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

They interview someone from DENK and the party's supporters use it as an opportunity to have Palestinian flags take up 66% or more of the screen behind the interviewee. That's certainly on-brand lol

Makes sense, most of their vote base is immigrants and mostly islam believers. It's also the right position, i would not vote for them because I don't think i would feel welcome there as a white. And because it's socially conservative and too pro-Erdogan.

The played right into Wilders' cards. From the river to the sea.....

I don't think that had much impact. DENK is basically irrelevant. And I think you underestimate how many ppl are supportive of Palestine.

I mean i wouldn't vote for DENK ever and i'm clearly supportive of Palestine.

I think you underestimate how many people on the right support Israel. And it is not just about Denk. It is about the slogan, the protests. Denk is just as irrelevant as PvdD

It's not like people who hate DENK in 2023 didn't hate DENK in 2021 and they got far more coverage in the past. So an anti-DENK vote would have more made sense back than.

In fact the pro-Palestine positions would have more appeal than pro-Erdogan sentiment across the spectrum. Perhaps not really on the right that always used them as a scapegoat. But on the left where more people would support the Palestinian cause.

No. You are mistaken. Denk had a softer tone of voice for a while, but with its new leader they opted for a more aggressive strategy. It does not help them and it does not help their community. Like i said it is not just about Denk, it is about the (anisemitic) protests which simp0ly are not popular.

At the end i don't think people and I disagree with you.

Sure, not everyone will like those protests that's true but it's not just 2% of the population that supports Palestine.

If that truly was the case, PVV wouldn't win 35 seats I mean we have more than 2% muslims to start with already.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?

slow die-off of people, SGP are mostly people who vote for that their entire life.

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SGP: more difficult to work with D66 than with PVV
The SGP thinks that it is now first up to the major parties to see whether they can form a cabinet together and that the PVV should take the lead. SGP leader Stoffer said that he does not rule out any party from working with in a coalition. He sees a much greater barrier for the SGP to collaborate with D66 than with the PVV.

Stoffer is "grateful" for the three seats that the SGP will obtain in the forecast (as many as the current number of seats): "We have a loyal support base and they have appreciated our clear Christian sound and the sound for ordinary people in the Netherlands."

Lol

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Van der Plas is interested in a coalition with the PVV
BBB leader Caroline van der Plas would like to be in a coalition with the VVD, NSC and PVV, "provided Geert moves along a bit". She said this at a party meeting in Deventer.

According to Van der Plas, PVV leader Geert Wilders has promised that he would become more lenient. "It is important whether he will really do that." She points to, among other things, plans to ban the Koran and a nexit, PVV plans that, as far as the BBB is concerned, are "impossible and unfeasible".

For the rest, Van der Plas says she is not worried about the formation. "NSC, VVD and BBB are not that far apart," said the BBB leader.

Although the BBB is not numerically necessary for a majority in the House of Representatives - PVV, VVD and NSC together have sufficient seats - the party leader thinks that they will still be contacted, because the BBB has many seats in the Senate. "All the balls are in Geert's hands."

I wonder whether "all the balls are in Geert's hands" is correct english lol.

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Turkish media: enemy of Islam
Media in Turkey write that the Netherlands voted for "an enemy of Islam" who has frequently spoken disparagingly about Turkey and the Turks. Various media refer to a speech by Wilders in which he states that "those who vote for Erdogan should go back to their country".

A news site also shows a video in which Wilders once briefly addressed the Turks in English: "I have a message for the Turks, you are not Europeans and you never will be."

The PVV's election win has also not gone unnoticed by media from Morocco. The French-Moroccan news site le360.ma quotes Wilders' less-less statement from 2014. And the Moroccan news site Médias24 writes that although Wilders is conciliatory, he is still anti-Moroccan.

The site refers to the PVV party programme, which is against Islamic schools, the Koran and mosques, among other things.

Yeah, Netherlands will be an enemy of Turkey now.

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I feel like the western world is crumbling under poison of right-wing populism. That said, PVV got 23% of the vote. That's not really a mandate or landslide.

It's because people are sick of the liberal ideology that only serves the elites.

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The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

Also if the only thing you care about after a PVV victory is Ukraine...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Another change last minute

PVV projected at 38 seats (1 up compared to a few hours ago)

GL/PvdA down to 24.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

16% straight from the socialist party to PVV

SP isn't communist. I would've not voted for them.

Besides PVV has quite a left-wing platform on economical issues, like for instance on healthcare. At least more so than VVD.

The average voter from a left wing party is to the right of the party establishment on immigration. That's common knowledge. And strategic voting took place from minor parties to major parties.

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PVV took 33% in Oldambt, parts of which were a CPN stronghold back in the old days.

Netherlands doesn't have a relevant communist party in 30 years.

I don't know why so many people start bringing narratives of "communists" going to PVV. Communism is a dead ideology, esp. in the Netherlands.

The far-right just had a landslide victory, and people in this thread start hyperfocusing on "obscure communists that vote PVV" and "right-communism".

Y'all don't even live in the Netherlands or understand the language, yet you think you know it better... to write your own narrative.

One more time, and i'll just post in this thread in dutch.

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Niemand in de Nederlandse media heeft het woord "communisme" gebruikt, dus geen idee waar jullie daar allemaal mee plots vandaan komen. Maar gezien jullie het toch beter weten, gaan we gewoon door in het Nederlands. Wil je weten wat ik zeg, doe dan gewoon de moeite om de taal te leren. Het is niet te veel gevraagd. Het is blijkbaar wat de Nederlander ook verwacht van de immigranten gezien hun keuze. Als je toch zo buitengewoon veel interesse hebt in nederlandse politiek, om plots te beginnen over "rechtse communisten", een term die ik letterlijk nog nooit ergens ben tegengekomen voor het lezen van deze thread, dan denk ik dat je ook wel de taal moet kunnen spreken.

Alsook, DavidB. de titel van de thread moet veranderd worden naar Nov 23. We zijn al een jaartje verder. Ja, het gaat rap, ik weet het.

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Yes I think Wilders should be PM now. The dutch people have voted. There is no stopping it. It would be foolish and only backfire. He won the election. He should head the government now.

If he messes up, the votes will be going back. If he doesn't, well good for the Dutch than, i suppose.

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Niemand in de Nederlandse media heeft het woord "communisme" gebruikt, dus geen idee waar jullie daar allemaal mee plots vandaan komen. Maar gezien jullie het toch beter weten, gaan we gewoon door in het Nederlands. Wil je weten wat ik zeg, doe dan gewoon de moeite om de taal te leren. Het is niet te veel gevraagd. Het is blijkbaar wat de Nederlander ook verwacht van de immigranten gezien hun keuze. Als je toch zo buitengewoon veel interesse hebt in nederlandse politiek, om plots te beginnen over "rechtse communisten", een term die ik letterlijk nog nooit ergens ben tegengekomen voor het lezen van deze thread, dan denk ik dat je ook wel de taal moet kunnen spreken.

Alsook, DavidB. de titel van de thread moet veranderd worden naar Nov 23. We zijn al een jaartje verder. Ja, het gaat rap, ik weet het.

Doe normaal

Dat zou iedereen in deze thread wel mogen doen.

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The majority of their vote loss then goes unexplained - and I'll help them out. 25% of 2021 PvdD voters didn't vote at all. 8% voted for the PVV (a party with which the PvdD had overlap in terms of base in the past - but I doubt these switchers are now ever coming back). 8% voted for NSC. 2% voted for BBB, 2% for FVD and 1% for JA21. This means almost half of the PvdD's votes in 2021 did not go to a left-wing party in 2023.

Since when is 8+8+2+2+1 = 50?

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"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

Is it? Some Dutch far right parties and the SP are not far off Juche Thought or National Bolshevism.

Can you elaborate on what you think dutch juche is?

Marijnissen and subsequent spawn are basically Jucheists. Family business, kidnapping Belgians for ransom, aesthetics over doctrinaire Marxism...it's all there.

Baudet has éléments of Jucheism too. He'd be the type to come up with the paintbrush to complement the hammer and sickle in another life where he is an intellectual Marxist.

I can testify. I've been kidnapped by them. It's why i'm a communist and support Rashida Tlaib. You know, something about Stockholm Syndrome.