Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup's weekly approval page hasn't updated yet, but 538 says the new numbers are:

Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Idk how many times I have to say this but Trump's negative number is NOT the ceiling it is for most candidates. On Election Day 2016 he had a 61% disapproval rating in Wisconsin, but won almost 20% of those who disapproved of him.

It is not valid to cite disapprovals as baked in voters against Trump. There are literally millions of people who openly hate him but would vote for him given almost any excuse or flaw in a Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he will win 20% of those who disapprove of him again in any state, but he may well win 5-10%. And if you give him the undecided voters in such a generous manner (I think you shouldn't, depending on the opposition), then he wins easily when taking that plus third party votes into account based on your map.

Again, however, the key is to win over voters who are undecided on Trump or even who marginally approve of him, while holding almost everyone who disapproves of him. You can't limit yourself just to those who dislike him and tack on a few token undecided voters and expect to get anything beyond a Hillary coalition.

Your point is well reasoned, but I don't agree with the premise.  I think a lot of the reason Trump won many voters despite an unfavorable view of him was (1) he was running against an unpopular candidate, and (2) many voters were willing to take a chance on Trump, who had zero track record in government, despite an unfavorable view; they thought that he would (or at least might) do well in office.  There was nothing to demonstrate that this wasn't going to happen.

But now he has established a track record, and probably not one that impresses most voters who chose him despite viewing him unfavorably.  (Those who did view him favorably probably love his track record, but they're not the group in question here.)  In other words, I believe that disapproval of Trump as an incumbent will be much harder for him to overcome than an unfavorable impression when he had no track record.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tarrance Group (R), Feb 17-22, 1018 LV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it kind of disgusting that people are actively claiming Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster of 2016, therefore they have the most accurate approval tracker now. Not only were they consistently R friendly in 2016, but they only moved closer to the average during the last two weeks of the campaign so they wouldn't look stupid. Now even Rasmussens Twitter account is claiming they were amongst the most accurate, it's pretty gross.

I've also wondered if they might have changed their methodology recently.  Looking at their daily results, there's almost a discontinuity between the results through Feb 1 and the numbers afterward.  This isn't impossible, but it seems unlikely in a poll that uses a rolling average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

South Carolina: Winthrop University, Feb 17-25

Approve 42  (no change from last Spring)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1500 adults (change from last week)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 22-26, 1860 adults

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

They've now started breaking it down into strongly and somewhat approve/disapprove, which I don't recall seeing before.  Currently:

Strongly approve: 21
Strongly disapprove: 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Feb 22-28, 31777 adults including 28452 RV

Among adults:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Ipsos is getting really bad with the harsh swings weekly. The results look great, though. Reaction to "Guns first, then due process"?

Well, the last one was only a slight change from the one before (40/54->41/54).  This could be an outlier.  Let's see if other polls show a similar trend.  If so, then I would agree that the due process gaffe is likely a big factor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Limo has successfully ruined the fun of this thread. Im not sure what his goal is but If it was to get me to quit this forum, it's working.

Put him on ignore and enable the super-ignore feature.  It's done wonders for my Atlas enjoyment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe that Trump's -15 in Monmouth is his worst margin in that poll except for the one taken in December, when he was in a slump in most polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

What a bunch of bullsiht. I love how Rasmussen deflated Obama's numbers, inflates Trumps, and now claims that Trump has a higher approval than Obama did at this point in his presidency. And LimoLiberal and these other doofuses eat it up. Sad!

Something is obviously going on with their polling since they're so out of step with the rest, but his numbers seem to be normalizing. He's gone from 50 to 49 to 48 and now to 46 in their last 4 tracking polls. I'm always hesitant to accuse major pollsters of bias. They probably just had some weird samples.

Rasmussen has had a consistent R bias for a long, long time.

Indeed, 538 adjusts their daily tracker by subtracting 5 from the Trump approval number.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't look now but Rasmussen is starting to come back to earth.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_mar07
Rasmussen:
Approve - 46%
Disapprove - 53%

Trend continues today at 45/54, their worst for Trump since 44/54 on Jan. 31.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 1-7, 21603 adults (19193 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen

Approve - 44 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (nc)

Devastating collapse. My mind model now projects I will merely be able to seduce Genesis Rodriguez, rather than Kate Upton

This week is a counterexample to the theory advanced a while back that Ras tends to release more Trump-favorable results later in the week.  He's gradually declined throughout the week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 4-8, 3447 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Very static lately: last 3 weeks are 39/56, 39/55, 39/56.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, March 8-11, 1223 adults (change from January)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet, apologies if they have:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1469 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 8-14, 18255 adults (16065 RV)


Among all adults:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongl disapprove 42 (-2)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fair =/= Poor.

I know but most pollsters lump them together.

I think of them like this:

Excellent = Strongly Approve
Good = Somewhat Approve
Fair = Somewhat Disapprove
Poor = Strongly Disapprove

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, March 7-14, 1466 adults (change from Jan)

Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 11-15, 1565 adults

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)