Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Chips]

Russia cannot fight a war that would involve mass civilian casualties. It cannot secure any land that it captures. It has no grounds it can make up to invade. It's propaganda output is weak and more unconvincing than usual.

It's just wanting attention.

This could easily be the case too. No one knows for certain what's about to happen. It could easily be a bluff, just as it could also easily be a reality in the making. We don't know, and won't until a decision is official which could be tomorrow or in 84 years for all we know.

[Chips]

My advice for those who are all panicky and stuff over the situation, Do your best to calm down and don't fret over something you have no control over and leave it to the guys that do have control over the situation. (A.K.A: Putin and to a lesser extent Biden and diplomats from all sides)

[HillGoose]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

Yeltsin was our bitch, and he ended up with something like a 2% approval rating.

[PSOL]

I need argument to to prove ww3 isn’t going to happen because of this to calm my step siblings down any tips

Both Zelenskiy and the defense minister of Ukraine have denied that war will happen soon and they have yet to provide a statement to the contrary. There’s been limited mobilization, and indeed Zelenskiy has instead been focusing on internal dissidents necessary to keep a United government.

The US didn’t care in Georgia, and the last few years of throwing our allies under the bus signal they won’t get involved by fighting a war with Russia.

Germany does not care and has signaled that they won’t do s•••, even though this is the most pro-US government since Konrad Adenauer.

Russia is currently suffering already from a weak economy, a weak grasp of their backyard after a period of stabilization all of last year, and internal dissent at all time highs. Fighting a war against a state and then dealing with the aftermath on an economically worthless territory filled to the brim with hostile proxy groups isn’t worth it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, logically there is little reason for Russia to invade Ukraine.

But there still seems a strong chance that it is going to happen very soon.

And a big part of this, if it happens, will be Putin's neuroses and delusions. Not least the ridiculous pseudo-history he has become obsessed with about Ukraine being "the heart of Rus".

[Person Man]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

He needs to be on a slow feeder or else he gets bloated. Bitches eat with their noses.

[Silent Hunter]

I need argument to to prove ww3 isn’t going to happen because of this to calm my step siblings down any tips

Both Zelenskiy and the defense minister of Ukraine have denied that war will happen soon and they have yet to provide a statement to the contrary. There’s been limited mobilization, and indeed Zelenskiy has instead been focusing on internal dissidents necessary to keep a United government.

The Democrats didn’t care in Georgia, and the last few years of throwing our allies under the bus signal they won’t get involved by fighting a war with Russia.

Germany does not care and has signaled that they won’t do s•••, even though this is the most pro-US government since Konrad Adenauer.

Russia is currently suffering already from a weak economy, a weak grasp of their backyard after a period of stabilization all of last year, and internal dissent at all time highs. Fighting a war against a state and then dealing with the aftermath on an economically worthless territory filled to the brim with hostile proxy groups isn’t worth it.

Georgia was under Bush Jr in 2008.

[Hindsight was 2020]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

Yeltsin was our bitch, and he ended up with something like a 2% approval rating.

And now you’re running defense for Putin 🙄

[Serenity Now]

Yes, logically there is little reason for Russia to invade Ukraine.

But there still seems a strong chance that it is going to happen very soon.

And a big part of this, if it happens, will be Putin's neuroses and delusions. Not least the ridiculous pseudo-history he has become obsessed with about Ukraine being "the heart of Rus".

My thoughts on this tend to shift back and forth between your view here and Afleitch's above.

[jaichind]

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/RUSSIAN-MILITARY-SAYS-IT-DETECTED-U-S-SUBMARINE-NEAR-KURIL-ISLA-8230--38061752/

"RUSSIAN MILITARY SAYS IT DETECTED U.S. SUBMARINE NEAR KURIL ISLANDS WITHIN RUSSIA'S TERRITORY - IFX"

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-leader-says-warnings-of-imminent-russian-invasion-stoking-panic/

"Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion stoking ‘panic’"

Zelensky demands proof of Moscow’s attack plans, decries intelligence reports as ‘only provoking panic and not helping us’

He should strike back by saying he has intelligence that shows a Mexico invasion of the USA is imminent.

[Flyersfan232]

How will this effect the surrounding country domestic politics

[Hnv1]

Lol at anyone who thinks 30 Russian battalions minis can encircle Kiev. With the Dnieper cutting them down the middle and their entire western flank open to Ukrainian offensive.

I’m quite happy to see the inevitable poor performance by the Russian paper tiger

[jaichind]

Scholz plans to be in Kyiv on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday.  I suspect this most recent surge of war talk is an attempt to get him to call off the Moscow leg.  We will see what develops next couple of days with respect to his trip.

[HillGoose]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

Yeltsin was our bitch, and he ended up with something like a 2% approval rating.

did'nt he almost start a nuclear war in 1995 over a norweigan weather balloon

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Scholz plans to be in Kyiv on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday.  I suspect this most recent surge of war talk is an attempt to get him to call off the Moscow leg.  We will see what develops next couple of days with respect to his trip.

Lol.

[Helsinkian]

During the Cold War, Finland had plenty of self-described "peace activists" who denounced the U.S. but called Soviet weapons "missiles of peace". Mysteriously, many of their organisations found themselves in financial trouble soon after 1991.

Here is a British example of that type: Fiona Edwards is a national officer of the UK NGO "Stop the War" and describes herself as a "socialist, anti-racist, feminist, anti-imperialist". So of course she sides with Putin.

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1492444755300651011

[jaichind]

This is higher than I thought (34% correct.)  I guess it is in the news more recently does help.  I like how some of the guesses are in the North Sea.  There also seems to be a cluster around Belorus so a bunch of people did correctly catch on to the fact that Ukraine is next to Russia but got the wrong one.

[CumbrianLefty]

During the Cold War, Finland had plenty of self-described "peace activists" who denounced the U.S. but called Soviet weapons "missiles of peace". Mysteriously, many of their organisations found themselves in financial trouble soon after 1991.

Here is a British example of that type: Fiona Edwards is a national officer of the UK NGO "Stop the War" and describes herself as a "socialist, anti-racist, feminist, anti-imperialist". So of course she sides with Putin.

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1492444755300651011

I'm all for a genuine "Stop The War Coalition". What we actually have in reality, though, is much more a "Victory To The Other Side Coalition". Seriously, the number of self-described "anti-imperialists" who seem to think that Russian and Chinese imperialism don't actually exist is pretty infuriating.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's this persistence in believing that 'alignment' must be relevant still as it made the World so much easier to understand back when they were at Tech in the 70s and 80s.

[Flyersfan232]

During the Cold War, Finland had plenty of self-described "peace activists" who denounced the U.S. but called Soviet weapons "missiles of peace". Mysteriously, many of their organisations found themselves in financial trouble soon after 1991.

Here is a British example of that type: Fiona Edwards is a national officer of the UK NGO "Stop the War" and describes herself as a "socialist, anti-racist, feminist, anti-imperialist". So of course she sides with Putin.

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1492444755300651011

I'm all for a genuine "Stop The War Coalition". What we actually have in reality, though, is much more a "Victory To The Other Side Coalition". Seriously, the number of self-described "anti-imperialists" who seem to think that Russian and Chinese imperialism don't actually exist is pretty infuriating.

I have seen people justifying it claiming they Warsaw Pact had their own revolution nothing said. Power to the people like threatening a king to adicate at gunpoint and threatening to kill his supports if he didnt as such in Romanian

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Emergency press conference called with PM Andersson and the highest general in the Swedish army 👀

Sweden is seriously preparing for a conflict with Russia and preparing for Ukrainian refugees


Congratulations to Putin, on probably causing Sweden and Finland to reopen NATO ascension talks,  after already triggering a major military buildup in both countries since 2014

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Vague in first place and backtracked later, but diplomats usually don't improvise. Test balloon?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1493116643572072451

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1493167291369984002

[jaichind]

Markets down this morning on war fears but erased most of its losses when Russia’s Lavrov says Putin backs continuing talks with west