2012 NDP leadership convention

[Peter the Lefty]

I'm sure that happened. I totally saw it while watching the convention live.

It's been reported by people nearby.  And knowing him, it's not that hard to believe.

[Peter the Lefty]

Wow.  11:38.  They won't extend the time for leaders' speeches enough so that Mulcair can say his speech well and Nash can actually make a speech without technical difficulties, yet they let an interim leader's speech go on long enough to throw voting this much off-schedule?

[Peter the Lefty]

As someone with no knowledge whatsoever of how such things work, I have a question about Cullen's proposal:
Would the party itself have to hold a vote on whether or not to allow his idea to go through, if he wins this?  Because I doubt they'd actually approve of it, so if that were the case, then I'll be rooting for Cullen from here on out.  

[Peter the Lefty]

I hope Nash supporters are smart and jump ship to Cullen, because he'd have a better shot of betting Mulcair (except among Quebec members).  Not to mention, he'd be the only other candidate who could viably become Prime Minister.

[Peter the Lefty]

Mixed signals depending on who you talk to, but I'd expect Nash supporters would go to Topp, which means Mulcair wins. The last ABM window requires Cullen surpassing Topp.

Grrrr.... Why isn't the party talking more about his Bay Street and Israel lobby funding?  How could they be so stupid?!?!

He may be restricted from taking the party in a Third Way direction, but privately it's clear that he harbors the ideology of Tony Blair and the temperament of Gordon Brown: the worst of both worlds!

[Peter the Lefty]

Damn.  Okay, fine.  It's Mulcair's to loose.  I just hope it's a really razor-thin margin as a warning to him.

[Peter the Lefty]

Numbers?

Percentage: 57.2% Mulcair, 42.8% Topp. 

Raw vote: Mulcair 33,821, Topp 25,329

Damn.  I would've hoped it'd be narrower.  Ah well.  I'll be remembering what you guys said about how he'll be toast if he tries to make the NDP Third Way.  If he starts as leader by demoting Libby in any way, shape, or form, I'll go berserk.

[Peter the Lefty]

Wow, watching the speech, it's amazing how pissed Broadbent looks.  

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, Broadbent seems to be very pissed and seems to hate everyone who doesn't agree with its view of the NDP.

True.  He and Mulcair are a lot more similar than they think. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Mulcair just announced Libby Davies is remaining deputy leader.  I liked his interview with Peter Mansbridge.  I'm satisfied for now. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I guess he's also keeping Anne McGrath as Chief of staff.  And I just watched the clip of him getting onto the podium for his speech.  His hug with Ed Broadbent was hilariously akward. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Cullen would be a fantastic choice for Opposition House leader.  Ashton could replace him as Western affairs critic.  Apparently Mulcair's planning an Easter-time-ish cabinet reshuffle to re-integrate the other candidates into the shadow cabinet.  (frankly, I wonder why he didn't do it already.)  Brad Levigne an Raymond Laguardia are both leaving.  McGrath is also staying on only temporarily.  Suspicious, much? 

[Peter the Lefty]

All right then.  Maybe he can help start an NPDQ now that Mulcair doesn't want him.  Jk, I know that's the last thing they're thinking about right now, but I wish they'd re-launch the provincial wing in Quebec. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The last two times it was tried, it failed because the party was taken over by separatists.
The risk is smaller of that right now, but an attempt would fail, because Quebec electors like than their provincial and federal parties are separated.

Perhaps in a few years, depending of what happens to the NDP federally. One step at time in Quebec, please.

Do you think Quebecors would accept it if the PQ wins the next election and then starts screwing up and implementing austerity?  And I saw a poll somewhere that an NPDQ would get about 37% support, or something like that.

[Peter the Lefty]

The last two times it was tried, it failed because the party was taken over by separatists.
The risk is smaller of that right now, but an attempt would fail, because Quebec electors like than their provincial and federal parties are separated.

Perhaps in a few years, depending of what happens to the NDP federally. One step at time in Quebec, please.

Do you think Quebecors would accept it if the PQ wins the next election and then starts screwing up and implementing austerity?  And I saw a poll somewhere that an NPDQ would get about 37% support, or something like that.

Pauline Marois a fiscal conservative? Not in this timeline.

If she gets a minority and compromises with CAQ and the PLQ by putting forward an austerity program is what I mean.  Plus, her policies on non-fiscal issues are pretty regressive (emulating Marine Le Pen on halal meat, wanting to drown the Anglos on Montreal's west island, etc.)

[Peter the Lefty]

New poll from Forum research:
Conservatives: 35%
NDP: 35%
Liberals: 19%
Bloc: 7%
Greens: 3%

Woo hoo!

[Peter the Lefty]

Is there any rationale for the Liberal Party to continue to exist in Canada.

One word: pot. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The Liberal vote is probably as low as it can go out west and in Quebec, though at some point a few Liberal MPs with strong personal votes like Goodale or Hedy Fry or some Quebec MPs will retire and then their seats will probably go NDP in a Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca type scenario.

I think that the Liberal vote in Ontario could get eaten away some more in a lot of those 905 ridings where the NDP will probably compete much more strongly in 2015 and will be trying to expand on the Bramalea-Gore-Malton beach head.

The Liberals took 19% last year. If Mulcair works out and the next election is seen as a tight CPC-NDP race, i could easily see the Liberal vote drop another notch to say 14-15% nationwide.

Yeah, the NDP still has room to grow at the expense of the Liberals in Ontario. The 905 will be tricky, though. Perhaps a couple of seats in Brampton, but not much outside of that. The NDP will do better in small town Ontario, in ridings like Guelph, Sarnia and Peterborough. But of course if polls are to believe, the NDP will have a hard time growing more in Ontario. They're doing better in BC and the prairies, where they're taking directly from Tory votes, not the Liberals.

What about the GTA?  Seems like natural territory for NDP growth. 

[Peter the Lefty]

905 = the GTA, outside of Toronto. The NDP can still pick up a few Toronto seats, like a couple in Scarborough, Don Valley East (or the new equivalent) and maybe York West. Oh, and Toronto Centre might be possible depending on the new boundaries, and whether or not Bob Rae runs there or in a safer Rosedale based riding. 

Oh.  :0 Sorry, that's pretty embarrassing on my part.  Seems like Oshawa might also be a prime target (Tory-held, was also Ed Broadbent's old riding.)

[Peter the Lefty]

Why would the 905 be so tricky?  Is it the memories of David Miller? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah, okay.  The city of Toronto itself seems like it could hold lots of potential.  Don Valley East, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Guildwood, York West, Toronto Centre (depending on Bob Rae) and even St. Paul's could go to the NDP quite easily.  Scarborough-Agincourt and York Centre also seem like the long shot that they could still win type. 

Outside of Toronto and maybe a couple of 905 seats, I think Southwestern and Northern Ontario seem the most promising.  Also a lot of ridings like Niagra Falls, St. Catharine's, Brant, Cambridge, etc. seem really impossible at first glance and yet, when you look at them more, don't actually look that unrealistic (turnout levels, demographics, etc). 
Here are the regional results of the poll I mentioned before:
Party:Atlantic Canada/Quebec/Ontario/Mantioba and Saskatchewan/Alberta/B.C.
Conservatives: 39/14/42/41/52/39
NDP: 34/40/30/44/31/43
Liberals: 25/15/24/12/14/13
Greens: 2/2/3/2/3/4
Bloc: 0/28/0/0/0/0

BC results are to be expected.  Alberta is pretty surprising, though.  I'm amazed that the Liberals are still doing as well as they are in Ontario given that Bob Rae seems to be here to stay. 

[Peter the Lefty]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Yeah, probably some.  And they'd probably win Saskatchewan seats, and maybe another one or two in Manitoba.  Possibly another seat in Edmonton, too.

[Peter the Lefty]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

Well, like Hatman said, in BC it's not uncommon for Tory supporters to leapfrog the Liberals and jump directly to the NDP.  They could probably take all of the Vancouver island seats except for Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Fleetwood-Port Kells might be possible, as would, if they REALLY tried, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Delta-Richmond East, and North Vancouver (meh) in addition to the ones you mentioned.

[Peter the Lefty]

I think the NDP will have a good shot at suburban Winnipeg, because voters there are used to voting NDP provincially. If the Liberals are dead in the water, progressive voters in Winnipeg will have no other choice. Besides, St Boniface? That's Selinger's riding!

As much as a I hate those rurban ridings in Saskatchewan, if the NDP does really well in the province, then it's possible that they will go back to benefiting the NDP more so than fairly drawn districts. If I had the choice though, I wouldn't take a chance on them.

[/quote]
Strange thing is, the NDP in Manitoba got 46% of the vote in the last provincial election, and yet just 5 months earlier, the NDP got just 26% of the overall vote in Manitoba in the federal election.  And polls for the provincial election published in May were showing the NDP stable in the mid 40's-disparity much?  I hope they don't copy the Manitoba NDP policy entirely (I'm not a fan of Doer and Sellinger), but they'll need to at least pull a page out of their books.  Elmwood-Transcona is a no-brainer.  Winnipeg North will also be a target, along with Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre, and Saint Boniface.  Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette is odd.  Looking at its socioeconomic demographics, it should be an NDP shoe-in (I take it it's because they're all too socially conservative to vote for anyone who actually represents their interests, just like the American South).  Though there's also a large aboriginal population there too.  Turnout in the last election was 55% there.  Call me crazy, but if they nominate a REALLY good candidate, it just might be feasible.

And Saskatchewan-c'mon, they'll have to win there, even though the boundaries are completely rigged.  In all sorts of ridings, even the ugly ones.  Palliser will be a must.  Other targets should include Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River (definitely the right demographics), and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.  Some others will require taking votes away from the Torries directly (or drawing in previously apathetic voters to the polling stations for the first time to vote NDP), like Regina Qu'appelle, Blackstrap (a longshot, for sure), Saskatoon-Humboldt, and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre (boy, how I'd love to see that homophobic grease-brain Tom Lukiwski get the boot).  But in these areas of course, drawing in Torries may not be as hard, especially since the federal NDP is ahead in Sask/Manitoba right now. And Wascana might be possible if Ralph Goodale decides to retire, though I do understand it's a wealthier riding. 

[Peter the Lefty]

So would you say Conservatives would get a majority with only 35% of the vote again? What if Rae and Muclair cooperate and let the liberals run in the suburbs and NDP run in the cities?

They'd probably be some vague references to tactical voting from the leaders. Atleast, that's what's happened here in the past.

Vote swapping, anyone?