UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Sestak]

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.

If May goes, does that mean that a snap election will occur?

Nope. Tories will elect a new leader and the winner will become PM.

[Lumine]

May and the 1922 Committee met today. She won a stay of execution until the first week of June (at which point the EU withdrawal agreement bill is to be voted in May's final gamble), after which she is to meet with Graham Brady and "set the timetable for her departure".

I can't see how on earth the withdrawal bill will pass (Conservative resistance is hardening, Labour-Government talks seem to be going nowhere), so it seems she might finally (finally!) go after losing that vote.

If May goes, does that mean that a snap election will occur?

Seems very unlikely. Tory MP's will not vote for one now that their polling has crashed because they'd be wiped out, and no VONC is likely to pass since Change UK will not vote for one yet (they would also be wiped out and their new party is falling to pieces) and the DUP appears to hold out hope for the next Tory leader.

As to what might happen if a Hard Brexiteer PM tried to push a no-deal Brexit and a VONC was called that's harder to tell.

Given the unworkable numbers of the House an election - or referendum - will be neccesary at some point, certainly far earlier than the last possible date in 2022.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

There was certainly some tories on the BBC locals stream that I watched making the argument that their couple hundred losses (at the time) were necessary sacrifices to tell May and the frontbench to get on with it.

It's hard to believe that anyone among the Tories would really think that it would be a good strategy. Too fakking risky.

It feels more like damage control by putting on a brave face. "Well, we don't care/send a message" or whatever.

[brucejoel99]

So a leadership contest over the summer &, then depending on the winner, a botched no-deal crash out or an extension... greaaaat.

[CumbrianLefty]

There still isn't a majority in parliament for no deal, and if a new Tory leader insists on it there could easily be more defections from their ranks (not to mention more support for another referendum)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

tbh if a no deal Brexiter takes the helms of the Tory Party, we probably will see a new election with the Conservatives standing on that manifesto (and I presume the Brexit Party would not stand against such a group, although I could be wrong). A leader that promises No Deal without a mandate (and no, winning the Tory hustings does not count) is on very shaky ground.

It's likelier, though, that we'll have yet more dithering with variations on the withdrawal agreement.

[Blair]

I expect, they’ll promise to go back to Brussels to get a better deal with the threat of a no-deal. As much as people like Hunt and Javid talk about supporting it in cabinet- I’d struggle to see them doing it as PM because the institutional pull, and weight of being PM should really stop you doing something so stupid.

The reality is there’s enough votes I reckon to trigger a no-confidence vote if the leader just went straight for a no-deal- Grieve, Greening, Lee, Boles etc etc.

I’m very much expecting a General Election.

[CumbrianLefty]

To the surprise of few, a poll of Tory party members shows a certain B Johnson with most support to take over their poisoned chalice.

The problem is, though, that is about the only group in the country where he retains the popularity he once had more widely. And many Tory MPs - maybe a majority - cordially loathe him.

[YL]

To the surprise of few, a poll of Tory party members shows a certain B Johnson with most support to take over their poisoned chalice.

The problem is, though, that is about the only group in the country where he retains the popularity he once had more widely. And many Tory MPs - maybe a majority - cordially loathe him.

The question is whether he can get enough support among MPs to get into the final two.  If 100 or so vote for him it would be very difficult to keep him out.

[thumb21]

Seems to me that an election is likely whoever takes over the Tory leadership.

If a Brexiteer takes over who can take a good chunk of Brexit party voters, they may feel the need to call an election to get a mandate for a harder Brexit. There wouldn't be that many other options for them. If they judge that as too much of a risk, they could either attempt to negotiate another Brexit deal, but this would almost certainly not pass, or they could let the October deadline lapse. As parliament has rejected no deal, this would be very controversial and likely a lot of Tory remainers would defect, potentially bringing the government down and forcing an election.

If a moderate takes over, I think it ultimately wouldn't end too much differently than if we kept May. Any deal they negotiate likely won't pass. This likely means another extension in October. That could lead to some Brexiteer defections from the Tory party. The Tories would continue to bleed Brexiteer voters, probably eventually having their government brought down by losing by-elections.

[Horus]

Nigel Farage was attacked with a milkshake today.

[jaichind]

Nigel Farage was attacked with a milkshake today.

Would this not just drive up the vote for BREXIT party ?

[DaWN]

Nigel Farage was attacked with a milkshake today.

Would this not just drive up the vote for BREXIT party ?

If seeing Farage getting attacked with a milshake is enough to annoy someone, chances are they were already voting for the Brexit party anyway

[YL]

Former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine has had the Tory whip in the House of Lords suspended for announcing that he plans to vote Lib Dem on Thursday.

[pilskonzept]

Nigel Farage was attacked with a milkshake today.

Would this not just drive up the vote for BREXIT party ?

A bottle of whisky might do that. Milk? That's just the evil CAP striking back.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine has had the Tory whip in the House of Lords suspended for announcing that he plans to vote Lib Dem on Thursday.

Heseltine is anti-Brexit, the LibDems are anti-Brexit, while nobody really knows what the Tories are about anymore.

So, instead of suspending him, they should just outright admit that it's their own fault that Heseltine is voting LibDem.

[DaWN]

Former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine has had the Tory whip in the House of Lords suspended for announcing that he plans to vote Lib Dem on Thursday.

Heseltine is anti-Brexit, the LibDems are anti-Brexit, while nobody really knows what the Tories are about anymore.

So, instead of suspending him, they should just outright admit that it's their own fault that Heseltine is voting LibDem.

That's not really how it works. A member of a party explicitly stating they are supporting a rival party is grounds for suspension in most British parties no matter what. Hesseltine was no doubt well aware of this when he made his statement and fully expecting of the consequences.

[Beezer]

Theresa May offers UK lawmakers a vote on second Brexit referendum — if they approve her deal

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/brexit-sterling-rises-on-report-that-uk-pm-may-will-allow-a-free-vote.html

[Lumine]

A few minutes in and May's offer is already backfiring hard. Up a dozen Tory MP's who voted for MV3, Labour MP's the government was hoping to convince (like Nandy) and the DUP are coming out strongly against.

Barring a miracle she's going to lose this by an epic margin with a full blown Tory revolt.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, all this will do is kill of any chances of current cabinet members (who must have signed off on this idea) becoming leader. RIP PMs Gove, Hunt, Mordaunt, Javid, Truss, Leadsom, Hancock etc in other words.

[The Free North]

As sad as this situation has become, it really has been fascinating political theater. For selfish purposes, I hope it keeps up.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

As sad as this situation has become, it really has been fascinating political theater. For selfish purposes, I hope it keeps up.

We might have Trump, but at least we can look to the UK for some quality shambolic politics.

I’m rooting for an election by fall myself.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know it has been said before, but the advice our PM gets in her "bunker" must be pretty damn awful.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

As sad as this situation has become, it really has been fascinating political theater. For selfish purposes, I hope it keeps up.

We might have Trump, but at least we can look to the UK for some quality shambolic politics.

I’m rooting for an election by fall myself.

Having lived in both places the past 18 months, the UK situation feels much, much more ridiculous.

[Lumine]

Things are getting worse for May, it seems there's a Cabinet revolt in progress (Mundell, Mordaunt, some are saying Javid, Hunt and others) over the "new deal" and particularly the prospect of a second referendum being included if MP's vote for one. Uncertain if they're trying to kill the vote or outright telling her to go now.

I suspect they'll screw it up as always, but it should be an interesting day.