2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED)

[windjammer]

Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?

The average is +13

[windjammer]

WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.

Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA

[windjammer]

WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.

Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA

It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years).

If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label). If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff.

Adam, I"m 90% sure if someone gets 50%+1 there is still a run off, this is the CA system