Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[Maxwell]

^^ Pretty bold to completely rule out Rubio in FL.

I don't see why. He's trailing by 20 in nearly every poll, and the momentum is not even on his side.

[Maxwell]

More exits:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666149

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Another case of good for Cruz in NC, not so good for him in MO?

Cruz tends to do best among strong conservatives - evangelicals totally depend on whether they are true believers or not. Missouri tends to have more true believers than North Carolina.

[Maxwell]

Brian Todd says that most undecideds in Missouri are going for Cruz in the GOP primary

The Question is how much - Kasich won 35% of undecideds in Michigan, which managed to get him third in the state.

[Maxwell]

How many decided late in Ohio? I think 54% late deciding means upper 30s low 40s - probably enough for Kasich to win.

[Maxwell]

More exit info on possible defections in the GE:

This is clearly horse[sh]it lol.

You have a representative from just about every sect of the GOP left out of the four and magically a quarter to a third of the GOP just "isn't gonna vote for em!" for every damn candidate? BS, they'll be at the polls voting red come November.

Voters are more adamant in their opposition to other candidates until they are paired up against the Democrats.

[Maxwell]

lmao trump won late deciders in florida

Rip Rubs.

[Maxwell]

oh man oh god oh man this is more devastating than expected.

[Maxwell]

Losing North Carolina is understandable. Losing Missouri? that's rough.

[Maxwell]

St. Louis County is closing - If Cruz pulls a win there, that's a good sign for him.

[Maxwell]

Did some math on Ohio:

Kasich won counties Romney won in 2012 by 15.6% (Romney only won them by 9.9%). In addition to that, Kasich also won counties Santorum won in 2012 by 4.4% (Romney lost those by 11.2%). Combined - that shows us why Kasich won by 11 points - Kasich held his ground on more socially conservative, rural areas while dominating in urban areas like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus.

In addition, turnout experienced a 64% increase from 2012.

[Maxwell]

Interesting - In Non-Southern primaries, it's Kasich who gets second with 24.9% (behind Trump at 37.6%), with Cruz in third at 24.0%. I suspect this is the result of the very high turnout Ohio primary.