🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today (Ö24 + Puls 24):

39% / 39% ÖVP
17% / 17% Greens
16% / 17% SPÖ
13% / 15% FPÖ
10% /   9% NEOS
  5% /   3% Others

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Beben-Gruene-ueberholen-SPOe/413380380

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1217760974205325313

[Tender Branson]

Turns out that Austria had a much bigger budget surplus last year than anticipated (thanks to good labour market data and income tax revenue):

https://www.diepresse.com/5751440/budgetuberschuss-woher-das-geld-kommt

According to preliminary numbers, the federal government budget had a surplus of 1.45 billion € (which is ca. 1 billion more than what ÖVP-FPÖ planned for 2019).

That is only the federal government, excluding the states, the communities and the healthcare providers. Those 4 branches together make up the Maastricht surplus/deficit - which makes it comparable to other EU countries. Those numbers will be out at the end of March. Considering those usually provide additional surpluses, it is likely that Austria had a Maastricht surplus worth ca. 3-4 billion € last year, or ca. 1% of GDP.

That will create more wiggle-room for the new ÖVP-Green government when it comes to creating the 2020/2021 budgets and their plans for tax cuts/reform, ecological measures etc.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland, the smallest of the 9 states, will have state elections next Sunday.

An early voting day will be held tomorrow to "boost" turnout (but so far, early voting days have not shown to boost turnout at all).

This election will be really important for the SPÖ, because it could stop their downward trend. But that's only got to do with Governor Doskozil, who is more of an old-school Social Democrat (Bruno Kreisky-style), who knows how to attract ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters.

On the other hand, the FPÖ will do badly in this election and nobody knows if the LBL will once again make it into the state parliament. Polls are rare.

ÖVP and Greens should do well (in the Green case, 7-9% would be a record-result for Burgenland ... ). NEOS will have a hard time passing 4%, but who knows ...

[Tender Branson]

From the new Puls 24/Karmasin poll (name recognition rates of the new ÖVP+Green government members and trust in them):



Trust is higher the more they are known to voters ... as can be expected at this point.

Another thing that sticks out:

Alma Zadic is already known by 2/3 voters and gets surprisingly high trust ratings from the public, despite the online hate attacks and murder threats from the FPÖ (or maybe those attacks were even a reason to rally behind her).

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin / Puls 24 poll for the Burgenland state election next Sunday:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1218146034519552010

https://twitter.com/thomas_mohr/status/1218154322111946756

[Tender Branson]

The LBL is a FPÖ splinter party, btw.

It is one of 5 parties that are only represented in state parliaments right now (the others are the KPÖ in Styria, the Team Carinthia, FRITZ in Tyrol and DAÖ in Vienna. DAÖ is the only one not elected by voters, but was established by rogue MPs).

[Tender Branson]

11% of eligible voters have voted early yesterday for the Burgenland state election next Sunday.

That’s up from 8.5% ahead of the 2015 election.

https://orf.at/stories/3151383

[Tender Branson]

So, the Burgenland state election on Sunday will feature the heavily popular SPÖ Governor Doskozil ... who currently has virtually no voice after several throat/vocal chord surgeries.

Currently, there’s a live debate going on and I read in newspapers that he has no voice, but hearing it is just wow:

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ leader Strache was a „guest speaker“ tonight at the DAÖ (Alliance for Austria) New Years Meeting:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113667476/spannung-vor-strache-rede-bei-daoe-veranstaltung

About 1.000 people got tickets for the event in Vienna and Strache lashed out against Hofer and Kickl („previous so-called friends showed their true colours“).

Strache could become DAÖ frontrunner for the Vienna state election, but didn’t say so today. He said he has some „homework“ left to do in the next months ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ leader Strache was a „guest speaker“ tonight at the DAÖ (Alliance for Austria) New Years Meeting:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113667476/spannung-vor-strache-rede-bei-daoe-veranstaltung

About 1.000 people got tickets for the event in Vienna and Strache lashed out against Hofer and Kickl („previous so-called friends showed their true colours“).

Strache could become DAÖ frontrunner for the Vienna state election, but didn’t say so today. He said he has some „homework“ left to do in the next months ...

Video of the Strache comeback with standing ovations:

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1220433626820640769

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, not only state elections will be held in Burgenland but also municipal elections in Lower Austria, the 2nd largest state.

But not all 573 municipalities will have one: 6 have different election dates, among them the capital city St. Pölten. Still, about 93% of voters in the state are eligible tomorrow. That’s about 1.5 million voters.

In the Burgenland state election for example, it’s only some 250.000 voters.

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the Burgenland state election + Lower Austrian municipal elections are now open.

In Burgenland, 19.5% of eligible voters have already voted early or requested postal ballots - up from 14.2% in 2015.

Polls close at 4pm.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland polls close in 2 minutes.

A 1st ORF/SORA projection will be out soon.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ wins the state election with 51% !

+9%

Absolute majority.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

So Greens will not be needed in place of FPO. Neither FPO in place of FPO.

Remains to be seen ...

A) the SPÖ has now dropped to 50%, and the others in parliament 47%. 3% for smaller parties. That should be enough for the SPÖ to keep their 19th seat in the 36-seat state parliament and the absolute majority. But there are still some votes counted in the north of the state.

B) the SPÖ could still bring in a coalition partner despite having an absolute majority. In Lower Austria, where the ÖVP has won an absolute majority as well - they picked the SPÖ as coalition partner for example.

[Tender Branson]

Only 4 towns left to count in the Burgenland state election.

The SPÖ is currently sitting at 50.02% statewide and among the 4 towns left the SPÖ underperformed relative to the state in 2015.

So I guess they will end up with 49.9% or something, but should retain their absolute majority because of the small parties that didn't make it.

[Tender Branson]

Final result for the Burgenland state election:




A very regional election result.

But still a very stunning result for the almost-voiceless SPÖ governor, in the current political climate which has turned sharply against the SPÖ.

As I have said before Dosko managed to gain from all parties because he’s a really popular and populist, pragmatic politician who easily connects with the working-class.

And in the Lower Austrian municipal elections, it seems the ÖVP cemented their strong position in the 567 towns which voted today.

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the Lower Austrian municipal elections today:



http://www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/G20201/Index.html?area=l

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ will govern alone in Burgenland now after their election win yesterday, dumping the FPÖ as their coalition partner.

https://www.krone.at/2086759

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-Burgenland leader had stepped down after their election defeat on Sunday.

https://orf.at/stories/3152480

Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will

The whole ÖVP-Green cabinet took a joint bus ride to their hotel today, instead of using their expensive ministerial cars:



https://orf.at/stories/3152567/

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/klassenfahrt-feeling-im-koalitionsbus/400740588

Let’s see what they can get done ...

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll for the fall:



Strong start for DAÖ.