🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) today:

"We will vote on October 11."

Extraordinary events (such as a 2nd wave of infections) could still prevent it, but right now all signs are on "Go".

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3044123

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP nearing absolute majority-territory:

ATV Trend/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies (7.-14. April, n=807)

46% ÖVP (+8.5)
17% SPÖ (-4.2)
16% Greens (+2.1)
10% FPÖ (-6.2)
  7% NEOS (-1.1)
  3% DAÖ (+3.0)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

62% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
12% Werner Kogler (Greens)
11% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  5% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
  2% Heinz-Christian Strache (DAÖ)
  1% Others

ÖVP-Green government approval rating:

76% approve
21% disapprove
  3% undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200415_OTS0127/atv-oesterreich-trend-acht-von-zehn-oesterreicherinnen-sind-mit-der-demokratie-zufrieden

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200416_OTS0046/atv-oesterreich-trend-glaubwuerdigkeit-von-gruenen-dank-corona-gestiegen

[Tender Branson]

Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

Different dynamics in each country:

* In Germany, they were rising because of anti-government sentiment (Union/SPD grand coalition fatigue among the population and besides that, Union/SPD had a very lackluster government performance as well and some scandals. Also: climate strikes helped them, but the party now seems to have peaked.)

* In Austria, they are rising because the SPÖ behaved like a total joke over the past few years and the climate strikes and GP-leader Kogler's calm and folksy revivial of the party earned them a lot of respect. Now, in government, they are benefitting from a rally-around-the-flag effect (the Green Health Minister is doing a great job and has similar personal approval ratings as Chancellor Kurz). Also: List Pilz disappeared last year.

* In Switzerland, they were rising because of the climate strikes and maybe other factors that I'm not aware of (I don't follow Swiss politics, because it's boring as hell.)

[Tender Branson]

Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

On top of the reasons I already mentioned, Green Party support in many European countries is rising because Social Democratic parties get squeezed like an orange from 2 sides:

* Younger, educated people don't see SD parties as "hipster" enough, but view the Greens as such. Young people associate SD as "outdated" and are not aware anymore of the success that SD brought forward for their parents and grandparents (40-hour workweek, paid sick leave, minimum wages etc.)

* Blue-collar workers abandon the party for Far-Right parties, because they think that SD parties (rightly so) have become too immigration-fiendly.

[Tender Branson]

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832

[Tender Branson]

When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?

The Austrian ÖVP has never polled 50% or got 50% in an election.

In fact, this 48% today is the 3rd-best showing for the party since the end of WW2:

* 1945 election right after the War ended: 49.8%
* 1966 election: 48.4%
* 2020 poll: 48%

[Tender Branson]

Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)

ÖVP and SPÖ were always equally strong after 1945 (more or less) and the KPÖ and FPÖ got 5% each to prevent any party from hitting 50%.

That only changed with the popular Socialist „media Chancellor“ Bruno Kreisky in the 70s (who  Kurz is trying to copy these days with an adapted (Social) media campaign and „message control“).

[Tender Branson]

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832

Chancellor Kurz also gets a 82-13 approval rating.

[Tender Branson]

New VIENNA poll for the state election in October.

OGM for the "Kronen Zeitung":

37% SPÖ (-3 compared with 2015)
24% ÖVP (+15)
17% Greens (+5)
  8% FPÖ (-23)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  5% DAÖ (+5)
  2% Others (n.c.)

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/wien-sonntagsfrage-24-prozent-fuer-oevp-5-prozent-fuer-strache/202206

54-44 majority for the current SPÖ-Green city government.

61-37 majority for SPÖVP.

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS majority would depend on the performace of Strache and DAÖ:

There's a 5% threshold in Vienna elections.

If they are in, there's no majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS (48-50).

If they are out, there's a 48-45 majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

[Tender Branson]

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

To be exactly precise, Austria is a net importer of Czech energy (~11 TWh import vs. 0.1 TWh export), where coal and nuclear energy make up the largest parts of their power mix. So while there are neither coal nor nuclear power plants running, Austria's energy mix is still not free of coal and nuclear power. (excluding imports from Germany due to the planned phase-out)

I know of the imports.

(My electricity provider from Salzburg has a 100% renewable energy mix though.)

Besides, I’m not totally sure to what extent EU member countries can get rid of nuclear/coal imports from other countries considering it’s a EU-wide power grid ... it’s probably technically impossible to filter incoming Czech electricity to Austria and remove the coal/nuclear parts from it ... even if we wanted it. We’d probably have to stop all Czech electricity imports then. Or any other imports from countries that still have a coal/nuclear component.

It’s still good though that there’s now no domestic production anymore of nuclear and coal.

[Tender Branson]

Updated economic forecasts for 2020:

GDP: -4%
Deficit: -7% of GDP (2019: 1% surplus)
Debt: 80% of GDP (2019: 69%)
Unemployment: impossible to say, depends how many will get rehired

[Tender Branson]

As a Green Party voter I of course vigorously oppose nuclear energy.

Nuclear energy is highly dangerous (see contamination in Central Europe through winds from Ukraine). The soil is still poisoned here and children born with hydrocephalus or short arms.

I prefer renewable energy such as water, wind, solar and biomass.

Nuclear energy wouldn’t be needed if there were no overpopulation like we currently have everywhere. And the growth fetishists keep on promoting having kids and large families (see India, Pakistan and what else ...)

[Tender Branson]

Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.

Except for the abnormally high cancer rates (leukemia) in the 50km around each reactor ...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.

Except for the abnormally high cancer rates (leukemia) in the 50km around each reactor ...

Which study are you referring to? The 2012 Geocap study coming to the conclusion that the occurring leukemia rates cannot be explained by gaseous discharges of Nuclear Power Plants? Or the 2008 study stating that a cancer cluster around NPP Krümmel cannot be explained by radiation since there is no release of it so it is a pure statistical cancer cluster which happen to occur.

Even the IPCC calculates with an increase or at least stable number of operating NPPs so the 1.5 °C goal can be reached. Otherwise, it is simply impossible.

An inconvenient truth...

There are numerous studies showing that cancer rates are up for workers in and residents around nuclear reactors.

Google "nuclear power plants + cancer".

thorium bruh

Or fusion reactors. I'm generally open to non-radioactive future developments.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):



77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043

[Tender Branson]

Another Vienna state election poll (Ö24), which largely confirms the OGM poll above:



Direct vote for mayor (hypothetical, the mayor is not directly elected):



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Keine-Mehrheit-ohne-Rot-SPOe-legt-in-Umfrage-zur-Wien-Wahl-zu/427477818

The ÖVP is in a bit of a tricky situation in Vienna: Gernot Blümel, Vienna-ÖVP leader, is also the new Austrian Finance Minister since January and has his work cut out in the next months due to the financial consequences of Coronavirus. It will be pretty hard for the ÖVP to let him also campaign in Vienna. And what comes after the election ? Assuming ÖVP-Greens-NEOS get a majority ... should Blümel quit as Finance Minister and become the new mayor of Vienna ?

[Tender Branson]

Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

[Tender Branson]

Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.

Yeah, but if 50% vote by postal ballot this year and there's only 200 people left per precinct to vote in person, then only a handful of people will enter the polling station.

Maybe 1 or 2 people every minute ...

We don't have those large precincts that you see in the US. There are states where people simply can go to a precinct they want, creating big lines.

Here, every voter is assigned to a precinct and can only vote there (unless you bring your postal ballot with you to another precinct). That means only 400 per precinct.

[Tender Branson]

Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.

Yeah, but if 50% vote by postal ballot this year and there's only 200 people left per precinct to vote in person, then only a handful of people will enter the polling station.

Maybe 1 or 2 people every minute ...

We don't have those large precincts that you see in the US. There are states where people simply can go to a precinct they want, creating big lines.

Here, every voter is assigned to a precinct and can only vote there (unless you bring your postal ballot with you to another precinct). That means only 400 per precinct.

The super-precincts were emergency creations when it was realized poll workers were scared of showing up, something that hopefully won't be a case in a few months. Outside of those super-precincts voting works similar in the US, there is just more people so the 'matched' precincts have an average of 1.5K people. Social distancing guidelines were and still need to be respected at the matched precincts, and I hope Austria and every nation that tries to hold elections will respect health standards.

Correct.

There are precincts in some parts of the US (Florida etc.) that have on average 1.500 to 3.000 people !

Whereas most European countries only have 400-800 people per precinct.

What’s also creating the hours-long lines in the US:

Election Day is a Tuesday (= workday) and not a Sunday.

A Sunday is vastly preferable, because voting is spread out during the day - but on a workday people are lining up at noon or after work.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):



77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043

Record equalling low for the SPO - how long before there are serious changes there?

If the SPÖ gets ousted in Vienna after 130 years by ÖVP-Greens-NEOS in October.

But I guess that won’t happen, the SPÖ will get 40% and with FPÖ/DAÖ at 10%+ no majority for Black-Green-Pink should be possible.

The SPÖ will dodge another bullet and their federal decline will continue for another year or so.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-Green government is readying their "Kurz-Bucks":

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Polit-Coup-Kommt-Corona-Geld-fuer-alle/427707146

On Monday, Chancellor Kurz will deliver a "State of the Nation" speech to Austrians (75th anniversary of the 2nd Republic).

Apparently, ÖVP-Greens are planning a major tax cut and handout program already this or early next year, with 2.000€ for every person (= 2.500$).

The article actually says "families", which could mean I will get nothing ...

Families already got a family bonus under ÖVP-FPÖ, so why again ? They should do more for the average worker who has no family.

Also, tax incentives for (small) businesses.

[Tender Branson]

University of Salzburg study among 330 young people in Austria (aged 13-24) on the topic of antisemitism:

80% are not antisemitic/somewhat or strongly prosemitic
20% are potentially antisemitic to strongly antisemitic

The 20% group ranges from such statements as "I heard Jews are rich." to "I hate Jews."

Among the 20% group, 2/3 are Muslim youth.

Die Religionszugehörigkeit der Befragten fiel besonders ins Gewicht, erklärte Edtmaier. So seien muslimische Jugendliche bzw. jene mit türkischer und ex-jugoslawischer Migrationsgeschichte innerhalb des Antisemitismus-Spektrums überrepräsentiert. Fast zwei Drittel aller Jugendlichen, die sich (potenziell) antisemitisch äußerten, gaben an, muslimischen Glaubens zu sein. Sie äußerten besonders im Kontext des Israel-Palästina Konflikts Abneigung gegen Juden und ergriffen meist klar Partei für die Palästinenser.

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3046764

[Tender Branson]

What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ...

About 180.000 SPÖ party members will be eligible to vote on her.

Today, the SJ (Socialist Youth, and ca. 10.000 of those 180.000 members), announced that they will vote AGAINST Rend-Wagner in the membership vote.

That's not totally uncommon, because the SJ historically always was the most critical and most anti-establishment.

But not a good start for Rendi-Wagner ... (some SPÖ-mayors from bigger cities have also openly said that the SPÖ needs a complete re-start).

Rendi-Wagner has said that she has a "personal support level", but would not announce how high it is. For example, if 60% support her as party leader and her personal level was 65% ... she could still step down.

So ... there was this vote.

The result was originally planned for release in early April, but because of the virus it will be released on Wednesday.

Rendi-Wagner said she "hopes" for a good result (which she'll probably get => 70%+), but who knows ? Maybe she'll step down this week.

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ-leader Strache will announce his new party on May 15.

Currently, it is called "DAÖ" (Alliance for Austria) - but could get renamed soon for the Vienna state election in October, with Strache's name in it.

Strache says his new party will be a "Citizen's Movement" and a "guardian of the constitution".

https://www.tt.com/artikel/30730642/hueter-der-verfassung-strache-stellt-am-15-mai-neue-buergerbewegung-vor