🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Heard in the Conserva-Green coalition meeting today:

Green-leader Kogler: "It would be good if Austria were to take in some refugee women and children at the Greek/Turkish border."

ÖVP: "Shut the f**k up. We will not take in a single "refugee" or refugee, as written down in our coalition contract !"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hilfe-fuer-fluechtlinge-kogler-blitzt-bei-oevp-ab/400770270

In the end, there was a compromise that the border patrols will now be increased and 3 million € donated to Idlib aid.

Sad to see those Greens never learned a thing.

President Van der Bellen (Greens) and Justice Minister Alma Zadic (Greens) now also say:

"Let some women and children in."

I wouldn't mind a small contingent of say 500 or 1000 of such women and kids.

But then there's the pull-factor again and once the women and children are here, it won't take long until the men are coming as well ... and we don't know who they are. They could be economic "refugees" with a troubling, military past.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll (Unique Research for „Heute“ newspaper):

36% SPÖ (-3.6% compared with 2015)
22% ÖVP (+12.8%)
19% Greens (+7.2%)
10% FPÖ (-20.8%)
  6% NEOS (-0.2%)
  5% DAÖ (+5.0%)
  2% Others (-0.4%)

Feb. 27 - March 5, n=800

PDF link

[Tender Branson]

The budget for 2020 will be presented in about 2 weeks by Finance Minister Blümel.

It will apparently include first steps and more infrastructure investments toward an increased ecologicalisation of the Austrian economy and (public) transport system.

Also, the chronically underfunded Justice Ministry (courts, prisons etc.) will get additional funding.

Yet the also chronically underfunded Defense Ministry won't get more funding. Despite the budget apparently having a 1.6 billion € surplus this year.

I think this is kind of a disturbing trend, because the Military and proper equipment is needed more and more to deal with natural disasters.

So what is the ÖVP doing (with the aide of the Greens) ?

They invented the so-called "semi-fit for draft"-policy. Currently, all 17-year old boys in Austria are drafted, but because more and more are getting fatter, psychologically impaired or have other problems, more than 20% cannot serve.

The government now has decided that even fat draftees will be used for service, in kitchens, as drivers, for paperwork or for natural disasters.

This will already be passed into law the coming weeks/months and become law by 1.1.2021 - which would mean that only those with a really serious mental or physical problems won't serve.

The 2020 budget will also be passed into law after March and they are also working on the 2021 budget right now, which will become law in the fall.

https://www.tt.com/artikel/30721540/viele-junge-maenner-untauglich-regierung-plant-teiltauglichkeit

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll:

2 in 3 Austrians oppose taking in refugees or so-called "refugees" from the Greek/Turk border.

61% say Austria/other EU countries should NOT let in additional refugees/"refugees"
31% say Austria/other EU countries should let in additional refugees/"refugees"

94% of FPÖ-voters, 75% of ÖVP-voters and 52% of SPÖ-voters are opposed.
83% of Green-voters and 54% of NEOS-voters support it.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200307_OTS0017/profil-umfrage-fast-zwei-drittel-gegen-aufnahme-von-fluechtlingen

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg (Sunday) and Styria (March 22) municipal elections have been called off.

[Tender Branson]

Not much movement in the new Ö24 poll:

ÖVP-Green government approval: ca. 60%

ÖVP-Green government approval on Coronavirus: ca. 80%

Austrians also support all measures to reign in the spread, such as school closures.

[Tender Branson]

A budget surplus was planned for this year too, but now the Black-Green government announced at least a 4 billion € package (= 1% of GDP) to help the companies.

The tourism and hospitality branches of the economy are hardest hit and it will get much worse of course.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian parliament will pass a series of emergency laws today, such as the initial 4 billion € fund to help the businesses and the soon recessionist economy in general. Currently, a lot of small businesses and the tourism/hotel industry are laying off workers in droves, while bigger companies are also experiencing difficulty (shorter work hours etc.)

But also such laws as quarantines for certain communities, shutdowns of cafés, etc. etc.

For this meeting, members of parliament will not meet in a single room - but they will be distributed across the whole Hofburg in various different rooms to allow for more space between each MP.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian parliament session has started.

Kurz currently speaking and his declaration sounds like a proposal to introduce martial law.

On the other hand he’s a good speaker/explainer and the government is handling this extremely well.

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Nationalratssondersitzung-zum-Coronavirus/14056860

[Tender Branson]

Vice-Chancellor Kogler (Greens) speaking.

He starts with thanking the doctors, nurses, care people, teachers and especially the cashiers in the supermarkets - who he calls the heroes of this medical crisis.

[Tender Branson]

Kogler:

„Parts of Italy are looking like a war zone. Old people are saying goodbye to their relatives over the phone. We must do everything possible to avoid this in Austria.“

[Tender Branson]

Thank goodness this is one such crisis where the FPÖ also behaves statesmen-like and doesn’t resort to silly conspiracy theories ...

[Tender Branson]

The Corona emergency laws have just unanimously passed the Nationalrat and will now be discussed and passed by the Bundesrat and then signed by the President in the evening.

Those are the most restrictive laws on personal freedom since WW2.

[Tender Branson]

New „Market“ poll today:

40% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
17% Greens
13% FPÖ
  9% NEOS
  1% Others

By a 78-17 margin, Austrians are willing to give up most of their personal freedoms to reign in the spread of the virus.

73% of Austrians support the current measures by the parliament. The age group 30-39 is the most critical (58% support), while the age group 60+ is the most supportive (87%).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000115709451/73-prozent-halten-massnahmen-gegen-coronavirus-fuer-gerechtfertigt

[Tender Branson]

Political topics are virtually not existing or debated at the moment, but the public is giving the ÖVP-Green government up to 90% approval ratings for handling the situation.

Even labour unionists have been applauding conservative Chancellor Kurz recently for his swift actions on aide for business owners and workers, so that they will get enough state money to survive instead of going bankrupt and so that they don't immediately have to fire their employees but rather send them into "Short-Work" or home office work instead, where they keep most of their salary.

Kurz, who recently saw a budget deficit as the "devil", is now open to massive deficits to save the lives of old people and protect companies and workers.

His comments are similar to those from the famous Socialist Chancellor in the 1970s, Bruno Kreisky, who once said: "Why should I care about rising debt ? I'm willing to have higher debt any day, than a single additional unemployed worker."

There has also been some talk that the October Vienna state election could be delayed if the situation is ongoing, but it's too early to talk about that.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll (March 23-25):



ÖVP-Green government approval rating: 77%

The anti-Corona measures introduced by the government are:

82% needed and about right
14% not tough enough
  4% too tough

While only 37% of Austrians personally fear an infection, 65% are worried that a loved one could be infected and 59% fear a loved one could die.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Corona-Krise-OeVP-erstmals-bei-40-Prozent/423655043

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/65-Prozent-haben-Angst-um-ihre-Liebsten/423650890

[Tender Branson]

Currently, all Austrian politicians have pretty good approval ratings (according to a new "Heute" poll), with Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) having the best (77-10 approve), followed by Health Minister Anschober (Greens), President Van der Bellen (Greens) and Vice-Chancellor Kogler (also Greens):



Even SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who used to be in deep negatives, is now back to balanced approvals.

Only Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) remains in deep sh*t, together with Kickl and Strache of course.

Zur Umfrage

Auftraggeber: "Heute"
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Stichprobengröße: 500 Befragte
Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/- 4,4%
Feldarbeit: 23. bis 27. März 2020

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-politiker-ranking-wie-kurz-anschober-und-co-von-der-krise-profitieren-42804183

[Tender Branson]

A 3rd new poll (Market) also confirms that the ÖVP-Green government gets sky-high approvals, as do most politicians and institutions.

Chancellor Kurz for example gets a 84-7 approval rating, the government a 81-6 rating.





Austrians are also confident that they'll manage to get past the Coronavirus situation in a positive way. Old people are much more optimistic than young people.

https://www.market.at/market-aktuell/details/oesterreicherinnen-gehen-optimistisch-mit-corona-um.html

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

43% ÖVP (+5.5 compared with the 2019 election)
19% Greens (+5.1)
19% SPÖ (-2.2)
11% FPÖ (-5.2)
  7% NEOS (-1.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) job approval rating: 81%

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116462666/oevp-und-gruene-legen-bei-der-sonntagsfrage-deutlich-zu

[Tender Branson]

How low can the FPÖ go, I wonder......

Hopefully single digits.

[Tender Branson]

How low can the FPÖ go, I wonder......

Hopefully single digits.

What is their recent low, out of interest? 11% must be close to it at least.

The last time they got 11% was before the 2006 election, but you also had the BZÖ then.

Before that, they polled 5% in 2005 after the infamous Knittelfeld Putsch - when Strache took over.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+Greens hitting new record-highs in the OGM/Kurier poll today:



Chancellor vote:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/in-der-corona-krise-oevp-auf-45-prozent-spoe-hinter-gruenen/400802834

Best ÖVP result since ~1970.

Best Green result ever.

[Tender Branson]

And the SPO's lowest since......?

It’s existence.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

So, the election calendar needs to be set in early July.

Coronavirus needs to be gone here by then, otherwise they will delay the election.

Tricky for the SPÖ-Green city government:

ÖVP and Greens are polling higher than ever before, so the Greens would be advised to vote in October at the regular date. On the other hand, they are in the federal government as well and have a duty to protect the population.

The SPÖ is in the dumpster and wants to vote as late as possible (even though the Vienna-SPÖ is far better positioned than the federal SPÖ).

Still, based on current polling, a majority against the SPÖ would be possible for the 1st time ever. That means Red Vienna would be gone. This would be the Super-GAU (= maximum credible accident) for the SPÖ.

I could see the ÖVP at 25-30% there right now and the Greens at 20%+, with NEOS providing the additional support to oust the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

New „Market“ poll for the „Standard“ at the 100-day anniversary of ÖVP-Greens:

44% ÖVP (+6.5)
19% Greens (+5)
19% SPÖ (-2)
11% FPÖ (-5)
  6% NEOS (-2)
  1% Others

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the government have record-high approval ratings.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116755429/nach-100-tagen-ist-die-tuerkis-gruene-regierung-im-umfragehoch