Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[rc18]

UK MoD seems to be testing out all the weapons. This is a Martlet/LMM and is brand new, not even in full service. It wasn't even announced we'd be sending them. Cheaper and easier than Starstreak for taking out drones, and can be used against ground targets too.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1513083814410694664?s=20&t=_mhu9_w7KWsB...

[Middle-aged Europe]

While several heads of government/state were in Kyiv already (Morawiecki, Janša, Fiala, von der Leyen, Hegar, Johnson) to meet with Zelenskyi, Scholz is campaigning for a regional election.

https://twitter.com/JuliusBetschka/status/1512825507913605138

Not really helping to recover from the massive reputation problem Germany has right now - also among Ukrainians (poll from March):



Roles of countries (friendly/neutral/hostile):
Poland: 96/2/0
Latvia: 85/9/0
UK: 86/7/1
US: 88/8/2
Czechia: 79/13/0
Slovakia: 74/15/0
Moldova: 69/23/1
Romania: 66/21/1
Slovenia: 59/22/1
Turkey: 66/28/2
France: 68/24/4
Georgia: 54/33/6
Germany: 57/33/6
Hungary: 45/27/12
China: 15/63/17
Belarus: 4/9/84
Russia: 0/1/98

Considering recent developments, I might assume numbers for Georgia, Germany and Hungary have worsened ever since.

While it's fair to have a go at them for being massively compromised, Germany has at least sent weapons to Ukraine. There has been no evidence whatsoever of French weapons in Ukraine, despite France having the only serious military left in the EU. It could just be because of the upcoming election, but I'm surprised there hasn't been much public criticism of this - nowhere near the extent of complaints about Germany.

The French have long played up European French sovereign independence in the face of American patronage, and yet when they are needed they've gone AWOL. What are other Europeans thinking about France?

I know that I'm not unbiased here but I find criticism of Germany at times also overblown, especially when compared to other major powers (France: doesn't send weapons, UK: is stalling when it comes to accepting Ukrainian refugees etc.). Some points have of course merit, others just seem to be intended to fuel an existing narrative.

It is well-known fact that Germany suffers from a number of long-standing problems with regards to Russia: Our military is in shambles after decades of neglect and we're heavily dependent on Russian energy imports. Fixing these problems has become the government's top priority ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, but it is an ongoing process that will take months, in some cases even years. The Nord Stream 2 project was killed early in the invasion though, and Germany has recently ordered 35 F-35 fighters, 15 additional Eurofighters, 140 Heron TP combat drones, and is thinking about purchasing the Arrow-3 missile defence system from Israel.

Personally, I wouldn't be opposed to an immediate gas embargo because a) Russia's crimes in Ukraine piss me off and b) I think I'm affluent enough that I wouldn't end up in poverty over it. However, even I have some doubts whether a gas embargo would actually be a net benefit. I have one or two points to underline this scepticism. First, our economy minister Robert Habeck is (at this point) opposed to a gas embargo, arguing that Germany can't do sh**t to help Ukraine if its economy is crippled due to an embargo. Second, I don't think this is just a lame excuse considering that Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk - who has build himself a reputation of being not very diplomatic and rather blunt and harsh in criticising my country's political elite - has a history of publicly praising Habeck as one of the few German politicians who genuinely cares about the plight of the Ukrainian people. The issue might be not as clear-cut as some think.

Speaking of politicians. I think both Habeck and foreign minister Annalena Baerbock are genuine friends of Ukraine, as is is the chair of the Bundestag's defence committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP). Finance minister Christian Lindner generally cares only about himself and his image. Defence minister Christine Lambrecht is maybe not uncaring, but in practice hindered by her own incompetence and slowness that she has repeatedly showcased over the past month and a half. And Olaf Scholz is a man whose standard modus operandi it is not to say or do anything rather than to say or do something that could possibly hurt him. It is a long-standing strategy of ass-covering that ultimately won him the Chancellorship last year, because unlike Laschet or Baerbock he wasn't embroiled in any public scandals (yes, there were Wirecard and Cum-Ex but they were apparently not very public because Scholz chose to not say anything about them). Criticizing Scholz for not having gone to Ukraine so far is IMO justified, although it would in the end be a largely symbolic gesture.

Generally speaking, Germany is obviously more willing to supply weapons when to do an energy embargo. Complete overview over German weapons deliveries since the invasion began:

- 500 Stinger MANPADS.

- ca. 2,000 Strela-2 MANPADS from East German army inventory. Here the issue was that of the total of 2,700 missiles in storage not all of them were still in operational condition. There have been reports of two separate deliveries being carried out to Ukraine though consisting of two batches of 500 and 1,500 missiles respectively.

- 3,400 Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapons - 1,000 already deliviered, 2,000 more were planned, 400 delivered by the Netherlands with Germany's approval.

- 5,100 MATADOR anti-tank weapons of which 2,650 had already been delivered to Ukraine - bought directly by the Ukrainian government at the German manufacturer, export approved by German government.

- 100 MG3 machine guns including munition.

- 58 BMP-1 infrantry fighting vehicles from East German army inventory, delivered from Czech Republic to Ukraine, approved by Germany.

- Five D-30 howitzers from East German army inventory, delivered from Estonia to Ukraine, approved by Germany.

- As noted before, there's an ongoing debate in Germany whether to supply Ukraine with 100 Marder infrantry fighting vehicles from active army inventory. Such a delivery is supported by Habeck, Baerbock, and Strack-Zimmermann, both Scholz and Lambrecht have been accused of stalling here though. Arguments brought forward against the delivery: would rip a too big a hole in Germany's own defence, Germany wouldn't be able anymore to fulfill its NATO commitments, Ukrainian military would need to be trained in operating the vehicles which would take months.

Refugee situation: Up until now, at least 300,000 Ukrainian refugees have arrived in Germany, with more to come.

[Woody]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1513126890688634882

[Torie]

Well I was  greeted this morning to the bullet points in the NYT regarding Ukraine, and the takeaway for me is that Putin has put in place a general (Aleksandr V. Dvornikov) who "earned" his reputation in Syria for the mass killing of civilians by fire bombing them from the air (his "first course" for this round perhaps being the bombing of that train station on Friday), and Russia in addition to Chechnyans, is now beefing up its depleted military with men discharged from the military within the past 10 years, plus recruits from from Transnistria (I finally bothered to read up on that particular sliver of real estate and don't plan to place it on my itinerary any time soon).

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/10/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

Biden, Putin is doubling down, and then doubling down again, you are not deflecting him, and you will need to do what is necessary to not allow Putin to expand his real estate empire by incinerating its existing inhabitants from high tech weapons falling from the sky from far away. If your "red line" needs to be moved, move it. The whole world is watching. And Europe needs to take a bigger economic hit to accelerate the pace of de-funding Putin's war of terror. Its oil and gas is blood money.

[DINGO Joe]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

Comrade Woodbury seems to have forgotten that when Russian invaded North Ukraine they had a 40 mile convoy.  I guess 8 miles is all they have left.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1513145043095281665

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/WynnWs/status/1512555962162372611

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1513026986247168000

[Woody]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

Comrade Woodbury seems to have forgotten that when Russian invaded North Ukraine they had a 40 mile convoy.  I guess 8 miles is all they have left.

You have to remember the push for Kiev from Chernobyl was composed of swamps to north of the city and and less roads thus causing traffic jams, and this time around the Russians do not have to deal with numerous large salient.

And it's close to Russia's core borders and around the Kharkiv metro and around already consolidated Izium and other Donbass terretories, so a majority of what is coming from this convoy will get to it's destination (Most likely towards Slovyansk) without fear of significant traffic jams.

I don't think comparing it to what happened in the North is reasonable.

[DINGO Joe]

Well I was  greeted this morning to the bullet points in the NYT regarding Ukraine, and the takeaway for me is that Putin has put in place a general (Aleksandr V. Dvornikov) who "earned" his reputation in Syria for the mass killing of civilians by fire bombing them from the air (his "first course" for this round perhaps being the bombing of that train station on Friday), and Russia in addition to Chechnyans, is now beefing up its depleted military with men discharged from the military within the past 10 years, plus recruits from from Transnistria (I finally bothered to read up on that particular sliver of real estate and don't plan to place it on my itinerary any time soon).

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/10/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

Biden, Putin is doubling down, and then doubling down again, you are not deflecting him, and you will need to do what is necessary to not allow Putin to expand his real estate empire by incinerating its existing inhabitants from high tech weapons falling from the sky from far away. If your "red line" needs to be moved, move it. The whole world is watching. And Europe needs to take a bigger economic hit to accelerate the pace of de-funding Putin's war of terror. Its oil and gas is blood money.

Seems like there was mass killing of civilians in Ukraine before this guy took over so I don't see what he brings new to the table.

[Torie]

Well I was  greeted this morning to the bullet points in the NYT regarding Ukraine, and the takeaway for me is that Putin has put in place a general (Aleksandr V. Dvornikov) who "earned" his reputation in Syria for the mass killing of civilians by fire bombing them from the air (his "first course" for this round perhaps being the bombing of that train station on Friday), and Russia in addition to Chechnyans, is now beefing up its depleted military with men discharged from the military within the past 10 years, plus recruits from from Transnistria (I finally bothered to read up on that particular sliver of real estate and don't plan to place it on my itinerary any time soon).

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/10/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

Biden, Putin is doubling down, and then doubling down again, you are not deflecting him, and you will need to do what is necessary to not allow Putin to expand his real estate empire by incinerating its existing inhabitants from high tech weapons falling from the sky from far away. If your "red line" needs to be moved, move it. The whole world is watching. And Europe needs to take a bigger economic hit to accelerate the pace of de-funding Putin's war of terror. Its oil and gas is blood money.

Seems like there was mass killing of civilians in Ukraine before this guy took over so I don't see what he brings new to the table.

It would be a matter of degree.

The most troubling thing to me is what kind of policy do you pursue vis a vis a man who cannot afford to lose his bet on which he has placed all his chips. Assuming a regime change is not a realistic option, I don't have a clue as to that. It is a potentially a very dangerous situation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/09/world/europe/putin-ukraine-russia.html

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1513169626850787335?s=20&t=4O3xVBGrcqdNJ5...

[Storr]

Weird how they're all men of military age wearing baseball caps that cover their faces and haircuts looking away from the camera. Even if it was a completely genuine rally, that's an impressive turnout. Is Russia even trying anymore?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1513179139339132928?s=20&t=lL8wrgh...

Nova Kakhova is the second largest city in Kherson Oblast, population 62,000. It is home of a large hydroelectric dam and power plant on the Dnieper River, capacity 357 Megawatts, and is where the North Crimean Canal begins its journey south.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1513210540134473733

[NOVA Green]

The Russian "Self-Purification" process is developing within Russia:

The episodes are not yet a mass phenomenon, but they illustrate the building paranoia and polarization in Russian society. Citizens are denouncing one another in an eerie echo of Stalin’s terror, spurred on by vicious official rhetoric from the state and enabled by far-reaching new laws that criminalize dissent.

There are reports of students turning in teachers and people telling on their neighbors and even the diners at the next table. In the western region of Kaliningrad, the authorities sent residents text messages urging them to provide phone numbers and email addresses of “provocateurs” in connection with the “special operation” in Ukraine, Russian newspapers reported. A nationalist political party launched a website urging Russians to report “pests” in the elite.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/10/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/spurred-by-putin-russians-turn-on-one-another-over-the-war

[Silent Hunter]

Looking at how this conflict has turned out, it's going to be very hard to read a Dale Brown novel ever again without laughing.

[NOVA Green]

So it looks like for those here bemoaning the lack of any recent Senior Russian military officers KIA, it looks like we have a new addition to the "role of honor"...

I believe Storr has been providing updates on this and if not someone else here will likely fill in further details:

Russian Col. Alexander Bespalov was killed during fighting in Ukraine and buried Friday in Ozersk, in central Russia, the country’s media reported. No further details about his death were given.

Bespalov appears to be at least the ninth senior commander killed in action since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. He commanded the 59th Guards Tank Regiment, part of the Russian army’s 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/10/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-5M4C2IRGSRDT7PSX2NXCSHJZDI

[Storr]

UK MoD seems to be testing out all the weapons. This is a Martlet/LMM and is brand new, not even in full service. It wasn't even announced we'd be sending them. Cheaper and easier than Starstreak for taking out drones, and can be used against ground targets too.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1513083814410694664?s=20&t=_mhu9_w7KWsB...

https://twitter.com/ArmyStrang/status/1513154703797854208?s=20&t=QinAEIuHTK7...

[NOVA Green]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

Comrade Woodbury seems to have forgotten that when Russian invaded North Ukraine they had a 40 mile convoy.  I guess 8 miles is all they have left.

It might have even already lost a bit of it's head or tail if this report is referencing the same convoy...

Ukraine claimed to have destroyed a Russian convoy overnight on Saturday, but it is unclear whether officials are referencing the same convoy — or whether any of those vehicles could be those seen in the satellite images.

“A large column of enemy equipment and manpower heading toward Izyum was destroyed,” Kharkiv’s military governor, Oleg Sinegubov, said on Telegram. His claim has not been independently verified. Izyum is about 75 miles south of Velykyi Burluk.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/10/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HU56LMW4PFHUFOCZUORMX5P6XU

[NOVA Green]

So to go back to the subject of captured Russian equipment, which I posted some info on Yesterday here's another perspective:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513214512660459524?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513214514547810306?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513214516393390080?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513214518339543040?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513214520017264643?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513224110595362824?s=20&t=Q466Nh...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Huge Russian convoy near Kharkiv

The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.

Maxar reported that the convoy consists of "armored vehicles, trucks with towed artillery and support equipment."

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said that Russian forces were regrouping in eastern Ukraine and planning to advance to Kharkiv.

CNN:

Well I can’t think of any time in the last month or so a giant convoy slowing moving down a highway has blown up in the Russian army’s face.

Thank god all those reports of Russia learning from it’s mistake appear to be untrue.

[pppolitics]

https://www.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1511931823999361027

[Storr]

https://www.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1511931823999361027

The Yugoslav government claimed at least 1,200 and up to 2,500 civilians were killed during the NATO intervention in Kosovo. The Human Rights Watch estimate was up to 527 civilians killed, mostly in Kosovo. This 1,222 is in Kyiv Oblast alone. Unfortunately, Russian propaganda will continue using "but Yugoslavia" whataboutism.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1513156607131234309?s=20&t=GZW_Hg...

[Storr]

I was hoping against logic that Bucha might have been an isolated incident of one bad Russian unit. Of course, that's increasingly looking to be wrong. Buzova/Buzovaya is a village of 1,500 residents along the E40/M08 highway connecting Kyiv and Lviv.

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1513224016798142473?s=20&t=GZW_HgT...