I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party. Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.
You'd have to find cash in his freezer. Seriously. This district is not going to flip to Republicans because "we're not thrilled with the economy." We can see massive shifts in safe districts in unusual elections, sure, but I wouldn't bet money on a big swing in a predominantly African-American district to the Republicans for the first time in modern times being one of them. But maybe I'm just lying to myself and refusing to face reality, and African-Americans are going to vote heavily Republican in an Obama mid-term election.
