United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Battista Minola 1616]

I read that YouGov/Lord Frost MRP as an admission that the Conservative Party is completely cooked. Even if they are just using it as motivated reasoning to push for more right-wing policy, when the best that all the spin in the world can produce (see Telegraph "analysis") is a hung Parliament with Labour safely ahead, they must know it's over.

[Battista Minola 1616]

And today’s prize for bad reporting of polls goes to those who have taken a Survation poll of British Muslims and used its figures with undecided voters included for a comparison with the last General Election.

Let me guess, does this include a Twitter account with the initials SFL?

[Battista Minola 1616]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I think YouGov is at least the third pollster which just recorded the Tories at exactly the same score as their Truss minimum (also Deltapoll and Techne).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Here's a crazy idea: why not bring back Boris? Obviously he has a ton of baggage and couldn't win but he might at least be able to prevent Nigel Farage from destroying the Tories considering he's managed that much before. He hardly seems likely to do worse than Sunak or Mordaunt and at least no one could say he isn't qualified for the position.

Good luck finding a winnable seat to parachute Boris in or changing the rules.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

Why doctor it when you can just wait for the natural course of things?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Wasn't there a general downturn in election turnouts in the 1990s, in developed democracies anyway - partly down to the collapse of the Eastern bloc and attendant "end of history"?

It was far from unique to the UK, that's for sure.

In the country most directly affected by that, Germany, turnout rose from 1990 to 1998 after having declined in the 80s.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Wasn't there a general downturn in election turnouts in the 1990s, in developed democracies anyway - partly down to the collapse of the Eastern bloc and attendant "end of history"?

It was far from unique to the UK, that's for sure.

In the country most directly affected by that, Germany, turnout rose from 1990 to 1998 after having declined in the 80s.

Interesting exception to the more general trend.

Was that at least partly "Ossis" heavily turning out to exercise their new found democratic rights?

I don't think so, Eastern states had slightly lower turnout than Western states.