United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[CumbrianLefty]

Based on the statement made by the Prime Minister today, my personal belief is that the election will be held on October 10th 2024, the election called on the day that Parliament returns after the summer recess with that recess being used by the Conservatives to campaign on the quiet in a last ditch attempt to close the Labour lead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67871404

I can see a few pretty obvious flaws with this cunning plan tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Only yesterday, Tory MPs were briefing client hacks that "it feels just like 1992 again".

[CumbrianLefty]

Re my comment yesterday about the 1992 GE - worth bearing in mind that it is now longer ago than Labour's previous big win (1966) was in 1997. And yes it *did* seem like pretty ancient history then - indeed when Major prayed the 1970 contest in aid during the 1992 campaign when claiming that the Tories could still win, the general response was "wasn't that a long time ago now?"

Given that, the collective hold it still has over much of the media and politicians of all parties really is quite remarkable - and its maybe worth some political thinker looking into as to exactly *why* this is the case. Especially since there is a much more recent election where the Tories defied the polls and the pundit consensus, but that doesn't seem to be hopefully invoked anything like as much.

[CumbrianLefty]

Big byelection wins in Newbury and Christchurch were surely part of it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth pointing out at this point that in contrast to 2019, the LibDems will be fighting every GB seat at the next GE (maybe the only exception being the Speaker's seat, at most a handful of others)

It is also likely the Greens will come closer than ever before to a full slate, too. And if they don't make some grubby deal with the Tories again, Reform may yet outdo UKIP's 2015 showing as well.

Good chance that the large majority of seats will have at least 5 options to choose from (if not 6 with Scotland and Wales) This would be a new record and interesting to observe.

[CumbrianLefty]

Excitement about individual outliers aside, the general polling trend for the past month has been not in the Tories favour. Which makes a GE in May less likely.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak

Some people say all sorts of things, doesn't mean they are true.

[CumbrianLefty]

The polls in Scotland have been gradually trending to Labour for around two years, though. The idea that - even leaving aside actual "events, dear boy" - the SNP would maintain its previous dominance if Labour were cleaning up in England was never that credible. Some people just like to back winners.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, Wales has the popular backlash to 20mph, and Scotland has tactical unionist voting for the Tories in parts of the country where Labour is very weak.

A significantly online thing, and almost certainly overrated as a major factor in the next GE - look at how the opposition to ULEZ in the London area has abated now most realise they won't have to pay it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of Survation's constituency polls at the last GE weren't bad at all, and they called the Hartlepool byelection right as well (though they wrongly had the Tories winning Batley and Spen, which was IIRC their most recent individual seat effort up to now)

But their samples then, whilst not large, were somewhat bigger than these two.

[CumbrianLefty]

Two points about this.

1. Reform are very unlikely to be on 10% nationally if they can't break 20% in this seat.

2. The swing from the Tories to Labour is 24%, considerably larger than the ~16% swing being indicated in the current national polls. Of course that might be at least somewhat due to Reform, but it does show that the Tories have, to perhaps state the obvious, a steeper hill to descend in seats such as this.

Then again, one might argue that the Tories are already overleveraged in a seat like Clacton, particularly given how it was a New Labour two-termer a generation ago.  So there's an element of being brought back down to earth after basking in being a poster child for "Leave Populism"...

The present Clacton seat would have stayed Tory in 1997 and 2001.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of Survation's constituency polls at the last GE weren't bad at all, and they called the Hartlepool byelection right as well (though they wrongly had the Tories winning Batley and Spen, which was IIRC their most recent individual seat effort up to now)

But their samples then, whilst not large, were somewhat bigger than these two.

They also polled Wakefield (not great: they overestimated both the top two, especially Labour) and Mid Beds (not bad).

Ah yes, forgot it was them who did Mid Beds as well as Opinium.

The orchestrated LibDem rubbishing of those polls really was something to behold

[CumbrianLefty]

And today’s prize for bad reporting of polls goes to those who have taken a Survation poll of British Muslims and used its figures with undecided voters included for a comparison with the last General Election.

Let me guess, does this include a Twitter account with the initials SFL?

Though on this occasion they were only getting their bad take from an actual ITV political reporter, who took a strikingly long time to take their original outright false tweet down.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe the PM shouldn't worry, the Speaker is Tory MPs main enemy now

[CumbrianLefty]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

But again, its arguably the media stenographing it so uncritically which is the real problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.

Speaking of, today is the 50th anniversary of the February 1974 election.

Worth recalling that was a genuine "snap" election, with the parliament having barely done three and a half years when Heath called it. Polls had turned in the Tories favour as 1973 had progressed and he decided to try and take advantage. By contrast, most Labour people were deeply depressed and not only expected to lose but feared they faced an extensive spell in the wilderness (arguably they got that right, but were just a bit out with the timing) One of the few who believed they had a real chance was Wilson himself - who thought his sparring partner might have misjudged things from the off.

[CumbrianLefty]

The likelihood is the Gaza conflict will be over by the autumn, though (as an intensive war anyway)

So maybe swings and roundabouts there, whilst it will surely still be a live issue in May.

[CumbrianLefty]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

There are certainly a few of these very vocal on social media.

[CumbrianLefty]

The funny thing is that speculation about a May election is flaring up again. Apparently some Tories are privately saying that things can only get worse (that wouldn't be a popular campaign song) if they go beyond May. Of course it will soon be known for certain whether there will be a May election or not.

Seriously, CAN they get much worse?

However much they moan, why would Sunak give up six more guaranteed months as PM anyway.

(well, unless the Tories try to oust him - but that opens a whole can of worms of its own)

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst the statement that Reform underperform their poll ratings in actual elections is totally correct and has been for as long as they have been around, the poor showing in Rochdale was surely in some measure due to their "inspired" choice of candidate. The idea was that picking a "big name" locally would work for them, not realising that he was both well known *and* widely disliked.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just seen a May election referred to as an 'early election' (it's f****cking well not, it's four and a half years into the Parliament). But it gets worse. It also referred to the idea that a May election could "catch Labour out". You know, the May election that Labour have been loudly calling for for months.

Jonathan Ashworth actually DEMANDED a May election yesterday morning

Go on, name and shame who came out with this epochal drivel - you know you want to.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was none other than His Lordship Mandelson. Helpfully the comment is right at the start of the video as the teaser (as well as the basis for the title). Tbf he says that that's what the Tories themselves are thinking, but he really ought to know better. In fact he probably does, and it's another example of Machiavellianism on his part. Maybe.

I've never really rated him as a political analyst/commentator, and that merely confirms it

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, he achieved his popularity doing stuff that he mostly hated.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's comment yesterday seemed to be an attempt to damp down speculation over a May election, whilst still keeping the option open should polls show a marked Tory recovery post-Budget.

We don't know for sure yet, but early signs are not terribly promising in that regard.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour entered the 1997 campaign on 55% of the vote - in what universe?