United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[oldtimer]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

It isn't just that tbh, its that those in the Tories who want a "change" can't agree on what the change should be. Back in 1995 there was an obvious alternative (Hezza) if Major was indeed forced out.

Same disargeements in 1990, 2017-19 and 2022 for the Conservatives, until they did decide it was enough.

A lack of an obvious frontrunner would also mean some that wouldn't normally have a chance could now try and have a go.

There is no lack of "Even I could be a better PM than him" I imagine among MP's and Ministers.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

They had viable candidates in 2019 because all of them were sitting MPs riding the wave of remainer backlash. The fact they won next to nothing in the 2022 elections (despite Lib Dems usually doing much better at local elections) suggests they haven’t used the 2019 result as a foundation, but rather it was a blip. Compare to somewhere like Wimbledon where they have solidified themselves as the local, and likely national, alternative to the Tories. The best of their 3 star candidates, Luciana Berger, isn't even a Lib Dem anymore.

A excellent comparison in this regard is Elmbridge/Esher & Walton. The Lib-Dems had a small presence locally in 2019 but they were able to ride that Remainer/Anti-Tory energy to almost unseat Raab. The Lib-Dems since then have basically used that result as a foundation and have built themselves into a sizable local force over the subsequent years, to the point they could make their council minority a majority in May. Now nobody really doubts with Raab's retirement that Esher & Walton will flip.

That story as you noted didn't really play out in Barnet. This IMO is down to the disappearance of the factors that propelled the Lib-Dems in 2019. Starmer quickly sought to mend ties to the Jewish Community that had been broken by Corbyn. So when the borough elections were up in 2022 the Lib-Dems were an afterthought for Barnet voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

It isn't just that tbh, its that those in the Tories who want a "change" can't agree on what the change should be. Back in 1995 there was an obvious alternative (Hezza) if Major was indeed forced out.

Wasn’t Redwood the main alternative

Seems like Redwood was even being described as the candidate of the Tory Right

[Joe Republic]

Wasn’t Redwood the main alternative

Seems like Redwood was even being described as the candidate of the Tory Right

Yes, but if Major hadn't won a decisive enough victory* in the first round of voting, he intended to withdraw.  The scenario is that Heseltine would have entered in a second round and beaten Redwood.

This is pretty much what happened in 1990.  Thatcher beat Heseltine in the first round, but not decisively enough.  So she withdrew, then Major entered the second round and beat Heseltine instead.


* He set a personal goal of 215 votes.  He ended up exceeding that goal by only 3.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is fair to say Redwood was a "stalking horse" rather than a serious leadership candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

They had viable candidates in 2019 because all of them were sitting MPs riding the wave of remainer backlash. The fact they won next to nothing in the 2022 elections (despite Lib Dems usually doing much better at local elections) suggests they haven’t used the 2019 result as a foundation, but rather it was a blip. Compare to somewhere like Wimbledon where they have solidified themselves as the local, and likely national, alternative to the Tories. The best of their 3 star candidates, Luciana Berger, isn't even a Lib Dem anymore.

That was my point. If they had another Jewish figure like Luciana Berger (not a sitting MP, but someone at least moderately prominent), the lack of local presence *might* be made up for. If they don’t, it wouldn’t matter if they *did* develop a local presence.

[Pericles]

Interesting that Rees-Mogg came out against a leadership change-

Rees-Mogg said any attempt to hold yet another contest would backfire: “Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad. The idea that changing the prime minister now would make the Conservatives more popular, with an election in view, is madness. It would be destructive for the Tories.”

Tory MPs slam 'bonkers' plots to replace Sunak

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is wrong to think the right of the party is united about any possible course of action.

[Conservatopia]

I find it hard to believe there are any two Tory MPs who agree on who should be leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently some "right wingers" are actually putting forward Tughendat as a possible PM now.

The mind boggles.

[Torrain]

If you think that’s bad - wait until you get to the paragraph about how Susan Hall’s victory will save Sunak’s leadership and throw open the general election.

[ꙮ]

Hearing unconfirmed reports that the reason for Obama's recent visit to 10 Downing St. was to gauge support for becoming the new Prime Minister if Sunak falls. As we all know, even left-leaning Democrats would be Tories in the UK because of how conservative America is, so this all works out.

The UK's unwritten constitution allows for this despite Obama's lack of citizenship. Merely passing a bill that says "Obama is eligible to be Prime Minister" makes it so.

Many people are saying.

[Zinneke]

On that subject, really the most plausible theory for an October/November election I've read/heard in terms of electoral strategy (rather than Sunak's legacy) is that coinciding it with the US election will help at least a little in distracting people in just how awful a campaigner Sunak is. He could let the US campaign and all the utter insanity that is likely to throw up do the heavy lifting in terms of media coverage.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is really as simple as hoping something - anything - turns up to give them a lifeline.

Unlike some, I never thought a GE on May 2nd a very likely prospect with the polls as they are.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Apparently some "right wingers" are actually putting forward Tughendat as a possible PM now.

The mind boggles.

As someone who has no idea of the minutia of British government (but is trying to learn), why is this odd? His Wikipedia page makes him seem like a generic Tory. Or is the weirdness the fact that he's not particularly extreme?

[JimJamUK]

Apparently some "right wingers" are actually putting forward Tughendat as a possible PM now.

The mind boggles.

As someone who has no idea of the minutia of British government (but is trying to learn), why is this odd? His Wikipedia page makes him seem like a generic Tory. Or is the weirdness the fact that he's not particularly extreme?

He came 5th in 2022, and is seen as on the moderate wing of the party (voted Remain, supports net zero etc). Also relatively anti-Boris. There’s no clear reason why right wingers would prefer him to Sunak, never mind give him a coronation as leader.

[Torrain]

Bingo. He’s also never held a full cabinet role or run his own department.

Every Tory PM in the past 150 years has either spent a term as opposition leader, or time in one of the Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Foreign or Home Office) before getting the job.

[YL]

There are some interesting Reform UK candidates out there. Here's a thread on one of them:

https://twitter.com/snigskitchen/status/1770542877250105823

[warandwar]

There are some interesting Reform UK candidates out there. Here's a thread on one of them:

https://twitter.com/snigskitchen/status/1770542877250105823

Clearly they should just stick to their old pool of former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party

[Chickpeas]

Bingo. He’s also never held a full cabinet role or run his own department.

Every Tory PM in the past 150 years has either spent a term as opposition leader, or time in one of the Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Foreign or Home Office) before getting the job.

Oddly enough this precedent also excludes Michael Gove, who has been in the cabinet for almost the entire time since 2010. Really would have expected he'd have landed a Great Office of State by now. 

[Pericles]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

[omar04]

I had a question regarding the housing shortage: How accurate is the Deano stereotype and the concept of "Barratt Britain"? These are the most detailed articles I could find on this topic:

https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/03/31/the-truth-behind-the-tories-northern-strongholds

https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/08/deano-meme-housing-class-britain?

Is the main reason for a growing share of housing developments in the north and midlands simply less red-tape and local resistance? The economic situation of many of the residents as described in the New Statesman is pretty insecure.

[TheTide]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

It's looking very close to Canada 1993 if you combine certain elements of the 2015 election (the major third party being decimated and a separatist party surging) and the shares of the three biggest parties in the above poll. Although Lincolnshire would need to be Reform's Alberta for it to work fully.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I think YouGov is at least the third pollster which just recorded the Tories at exactly the same score as their Truss minimum (also Deltapoll and Techne).

[CumbrianLefty]

It's looking very close to Canada 1993 if you combine certain elements of the 2015 election (the major third party being decimated and a separatist party surging) and the shares of the three biggest parties in the above poll. Although Lincolnshire would need to be Reform's Alberta for it to work fully.

Lincolnshire, Essex and Kent?