Romney getting crushed in AZ with Hispanic voters

[President von Cat]

I'm not sure how to get party ID and all that, so please lock and delete this if someone else has better info.

I'm just sourcing this from CNN.

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[Penelope]

I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a lot closer than most suspect.

[President von Cat]

I doubt Obama will win this state, but if the Hispanic numbers resemble anything like this in Nevada or Colorado, Romney is not winning either state.

[Likely Voter]

Yes Hispanics love Obama and hate Romney, but will they actually vote? They are much of the reason for the RV/LV disparity.

[J. J.]

Actually, this poll is not in line with any other, by a longshot.

Also, it does not correspond to CNN's own predebate polling of Hispanics:  

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/02/cnn-poll-obama-at-70-among-latino-voters/

[technical support]

Great News for Obama

[President von Cat]

Actually, this poll is not in line with any other, by a longshot.

Also, it does not correspond to CNN's own predebate polling of Hispanics:  

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/02/cnn-poll-obama-at-70-among-latino-voters/

That is still better than Obama did in 2008, isn't it? Didn't get around 68% of Hispanics, while McCain had somewhere in the 30s?

[J. J.]

Actually, this poll is not in line with any other, by a longshot.

Also, it does not correspond to CNN's own predebate polling of Hispanics:  

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/02/cnn-poll-obama-at-70-among-latino-voters/

That is still better than Obama did in 2008, isn't it? Didn't get around 68% of Hispanics, while McCain had somewhere in the 30s?

It was predebate, and within the MOE.  The final result was McCain with 31%. 

[Mister Twister]

Well duh. Arizona Hispanics in particular should lean towards the Democrats because of all the racist laws the Arizona Republicans have been forcing on the state

[BaldEagle1991]

Well duh. Arizona Hispanics in particular should lean towards the Democrats because of all the racist laws the Arizona Republicans have been forcing on the state

[LiberalJunkie]

Tossup in 2016.

[President von Cat]

Well duh. Arizona Hispanics in particular should lean towards the Democrats because of all the racist laws the Arizona Republicans have been forcing on the state

Because Hispanics in Nevada and Colorado never hear about anything going on in Arizona, or about how Mitt Romney is basically running to the far right on immigration.

[Ty440]

Holy sh*t .

These are the kinda numbers that make Karl Rove want to throw up in his mouth.

Those are close to African-American type numbers.

I truly believe that if Romney were competitive like Bush in 2004, he would be a clear favorite. Hispanics might be the main reason Obama gets to 270

[J. J.]

Holy sh*t .

These are the kinda numbers that make Karl Rove want to throw up in his mouth.

Those are close to African-American type numbers.

I truly believe that if Romney were competitive like Bush in 2004, he would be a clear favorite. Hispanics might be the main reason Obama gets to 270

However, both the overall and Hispanic result are not matching other polls.

[BaldEagle1991]

I wonder how the Hispanics are doing in other states like CA, TX, and FL?

[Ty440]

I wonder how the Hispanics are doing in other states like CA, TX, and FL?

Swing State Latino Polls


http://www.latinodecisions.com/recent-polls/

[Likely Voter]

The reason why this poll is different is that they allowed respondents the choice of English or Spanish. Nate Silver points out that the two states which he called wrong in 2010 were NV and CO, both with big Hispanic populations. So it is possible that all polling is underestimating the Hispanic vote.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/oct-13-arizona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/

He then ran a version of his model as a thought experiment on what if Obama actually did win the Hispanic vote by 70..


While it doesnt actually put AZ into play it was a big enough difference to flip VA, CO and FL from lean Romney to lean Obama.

Im not sure that is going to happen, but as I've noted before, the biggest factor in polls is not party ID weight but white/non-white weight. This is just more of that theme.

This issue of polling in Spanish may be something that pollsters need to deal with just like with cell phones and the youngs. Two big Democrat demographics are hard to reach with traditional landline English polling.

[BaldEagle1991]

I wonder how the Hispanics are doing in other states like CA, TX, and FL?

Swing State Latino Polls


http://www.latinodecisions.com/recent-polls/

Turns out the Colorado Hispanics are no different from the AZ ones. I couldn't find anything latest on the states I said though.

[Fritz]

The Obama campaign really should make a play for AZ...at least run some ads, if not actually show up there.

[DrScholl]

Jan Brewer got 28% of the Hispanic vote, so I suspect that's about what Romney will get. That will be enough for Obama to gain a point or two to his overall margin in the state.

[J. J.]

A half week with the first debate basically showed no difference from 2008.  It also didn't show huge enthusiasm.

I'd guess about 30%.