2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

That's nothing new - I'm pretty sure the same thing happened more than once in the 90s-00s. Québec's political geography seems to favor the Bloc.

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

CBC has the NDP narrowly trailing in four seats that haven't been called yet: Davenport, Spadina-Fort York, and Hamilton Mountain in Ontario, plus Vancouver Granville in BC.

They also narrowly lead Nanaimo-Ladysmith which could flip the other way.

Are there any reasons to expect the NDP to overperform in mail-in votes? I seem to remember they did in the BC election, but of course that's a very different election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.