Perry County, Indiana

[Franknburger]

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.

[Franknburger]

Tell City was a deliberate colonization effort by Swiss-Germans, and was intended to be named Helvetia.  It is now named for William Tell.   It has a relatively large French ancestry population around 9%, but is otherwise typical for the area German and American, with around 10% Irish and English.   Dubois to the northwest (and inland) is much more German, while Crawford to the east is more American.

Swiss-German suggests Protestants (Calvinists) - true?

If yes, that might be part of the answer. While others and I myself have noted various cases of Catholic German Americans swinging heavily towards Romney, Protestant German Americans appear to have mostly remained loyal to the Democrats. This is at least indicated by results in heavily Protestant German American counties in Wisconsin (e.g. Dane) and Minnesota. Perry County might be another point in case.

Abortion might be one of the key issues that divide Catholic and Protestant German Americans.

If this is true, it really doesn't apply to Pennsylvania Dutch areas (Swiss Mennonites, though relatively few are actually Amish) like mine. Look at Lancaster County, PA or Holmes County, OH.

I am anything but an expert on religous groups, but the Mennonites appear to be quite different from mainstream protestants, and suffered heavy prosecution in protestanr Central Europe, especially in Switzerland and the Netherlands- hence their emigration to Pennsylvania and beyond.

From a socio-economic perspective, mainline protestantism emerged as an urban, middle-class protest movement against Emperor and Pope, with little concern for social issues. Mennonism, on the other hand, was a rurally-rooted, egalitarian, anti-capitalist, utopian movement.

As thus, I would not be surprised to see both groups voting quite differently, even though it is interesting to see the more egalitarian movement trending Republican, while the one rooted in small town business interest representation appears to prefer Democrats. As I have said, it is probably morale issues, especially abortion and gay rights, making the difference.

[Franknburger]

Rural Protestant Germans were almost never Democrats historically (all three aspects being factors tending to cause one to be a Republican in the past).

Historically, I agree. As of today, I am not that sure.

It is pretty difficult to identify Protestant German Americans (and their voting behaviour) on a county base, as they may tend to cluster either with Catholic German Americans, or with other Lutherans, i.e. Scandinavians. Nevertheless, I have come up with the following rural counties that are (i) predominantly Lutheran, (ii) have a plurality of German ancestry (meaning that they are most likely to represent Protestant German americans), and (iii) voted in majority for Obama in 2012:

Dunn, WI: 39.3% German ancestry, 51.5% Obama
Mover, MI: 35.9% German, 60% Obama
Clayton, IA: 52% German, 52.6% Obama
Fayette, IA: 43% German,  55,6% Obama
Ransom, ND: 39.5% German, 55.4% Obama
Sargent, ND: 37.3% German, 55.6% Obama
Day, SD: 34.5% German, 52.1% Obama.

The list is non-exhaustive.

I am aware of the shortcomings of my approach, and anybody with better sources (e.g. precinct data) is welcome to correct me.

[Franknburger]

The region with the greatest percentage of rural German Protestants is the Great Plains, and I'm pretty sure that those are (and have been) some of the most Republican states, period.

Do you have any maps on this?  From the Wikipedia map below, the largest concentration of rural German Americans seems to be in the Mid-West (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) plus the Dakotas and Eastern Nebraska. Except for Nebraska (which, however, appears to be predominantly Catholic), these States are rather known as solid Democrat, or pontential swing states (Dakotas).



Anyway, getting back to Perry County - a closer look at the religion map that was posted in this thread indicates a predominantly catholic population, so my original point on religion becomes moot.

The Wikipedia article on Perry County states:

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So we might have a kind of Iowa-like set-up: Manufacturing-oriented, blue collar, not rural, but also not linked to a major urban centre. Should bring forward a similar voting pattern.

Plus - If my job depends primarily on foreign employers, I might tend to place more emphasis on foreign policy and the US' image in the world...

[Franknburger]

Did some more checking on religion, using this data.

In 1990, Dubois used to be 70% Catholic, 18% Protestant (mostly mainline, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian), and 12% non-stated- By 2010, with 23% population increase, this had changed to 53% Catholic, 22% Protestants and 25% non-stated. Essentially, the number of Catholics has remained unchanged between 1980 and 2010.

Perry, OTOH,  in 1980 was 33% Catholic, 24$ Protestant (very few Lutherans, but quite some evangelicals), and 43% non-stated. By 2010, with population virtually constant, that had changed to 31% Catholic, 16% Protestant and 53% non-stated.

As such, Perry should be much less "Catholic-German" swingy than Dubois.

Let's look to Spencer in the West.  Religion-wise, it is quite similar.
1980: 27% Catholic, 25% mainline Protestant (few Lutherans), 11% Evangelical, 37% non-stated.
2010 (5% population increase); 21% Catholic,  19% mainline Protestant, 7% Evangelical, 53% non-stated.

The ancestry structure is also not too diferrent, German, American, plus 8% each English and Irish. What is missing is the French ancestry part, instead, the German and American percentages are a bit higher. In spite of these similarities, Spencer voted 13% less Democrat than Perry in 2012, and 12% less in 2008 (when it narrowly went for Obama). The main factor here appears to be the lack of (larger) manufacturing in Spencer county.

[Franknburger]

The Dakotas are not "potential swing states". They are and will be still pretty solidly Republican (especially North Dakota with the growth from the oil boom).

Yeah, this has become obvious in the 2012 Senate election .

Seriously - I am operating here on the base of instinct and by interfering certain German 'homeland' patterns on German Americans, which may lead to completely wrong results - but I feel  that Protestant German Americans could be among the best targets for Democrat vote gains among the white population, because they should traditionally reject any attempts to 'moralise' politics (for a more detailed assessment of likely political attitudes see my longer contribution in this thread).

There is little doubt that Protestant German Americans have historically been strongly Republican. Whether this is still the case, seems less clear to me, and requires definitely analysis that goes beyond mere state-level assessment. In any case, as with other ancestry groups, e.g. Irish Americans, there should some 'tribalist' voting be present among (Protestant) German Americans. As the Democrats have not yet had their Hoover, Eisenhower or Kissinger, this 'tribalist' element is still working in favour of the Republicans. However I feel - instinct, again, and therefore argueable - that the 'tribalist' element is among the last things that still keep Protestant German Americans in the Republican camp. Put a Heitkanp, Schweitzer or Loebsack at the top of the Democrat ticket, and you have them.

But maybe this discussion should be continued in a thread of its own ..

[Franknburger]

The Dakotas are not "potential swing states". They are and will be still pretty solidly Republican (especially North Dakota with the growth from the oil boom).

Yeah, this has become obvious in the 2012 Senate election .

Seriously - I am operating here on the base of instinct and by interfering certain German 'homeland' patterns on German Americans, which may lead to completely wrong results - but I feel  that Protestant German Americans could be among the best targets for Democrat vote gains among the white population, because they should traditionally reject any attempts to 'moralise' politics (for a more detailed assessment of likely political attitudes see my longer contribution in this thread).

Only because all of the moralizing Protestants left Germany for the US in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Never said that German Protestants are not moralizing - they just prefer it being done in the pub, not in the political arena ..

[Franknburger]

Alright

The descendants of German Protestants in the USA are going to be so heavily intermarried with WASPs and in the Upper Midwest with Scandinavians, and are just such a milquetoast ethnicity, as to be almost unspottable even though actually one of the largest population groups in the US. They have no cohesion as a group.

But long after one loses a sense of ethnicity, or jettisons it in the manner described above, the attitudes carry on without an ethnic label. Attitudes have long half lives.

My original thesis was that Proitestant German ancestry may (with or without any such self-definition of the people concerned) express itself in a different attitude towards 'moralistic'' policies, especially as concerns abortion.

There is a great way to test this hypothesis, namely on the results of the 2012 Senate races in Indiana and Missouri. Looking at Indiana, aside from Perry, a lot of counties in the Ohio valley voted for Donelly. In Missouri, there are two east-west belts of rural counties in the north, one starting in Clark, and the other one in Pike county, that went for McCaskill and, from a first look at the Wikipedia map I posted above, appear to have strong German ancestry population.

Before going further into any speculation: Has anybody yet done swing maps for the Senate races in question, or maps that compare the 2012 Senate and Presidentiak results?

[Franknburger]

And you forgot Kansas, too, which is a heavily German state (mainly Protestant, but some Catholics too) that is very conservative/Republican.

That's another fascinating nugget. The largest German ancestry cluster in Kansas appears to be around Hays - mostly Volga and Bukovina Germans, so a completely different story again.
Anyway, in 1988, Hays voted for Dukakis and in 1992 for Clinton, and the surrounding rural counties - also strongly Volga-German - only went narrowly Republican. Since then, the area has become more and more Republican, indeed.

[Franknburger]

Perry County does have a Benedictine Archabbey.  This indicates at least some Catholic presence, but probably not the French-ancestry in the population, unless some of inmates were monkeying around.

The Benedictines are not necessarily Catholic. There are also several Anglican and a few Lutheran Benedictine congregations.
In any case, another interesting puzzle-piece. Even when being Catholic, the Benedictines differed significantly from other congregations. They were egalitarian (i.e. not a congregation where second-born nobility was placed to make career in the clerical hierarchy), with strong focus on education and community work (instead of missionary activities). Their motto 'ora et labora' (pray and work) predates protestant ethics.
Altogether, this fits the emerging picture of Perry county originating as a settlement of industrious low- to middle-class, community-focused, education-minded, 'Rhinish' (the best common denominator of Swiss, Germans and Belgians I could think of) immigrants. Should have been quite distinct from the start, and the relative geographical isolation has preserved this distinctiveness.

I start to wonder whether it is just accidentally that Thyssen-Krupp is the county's largest employer, or they have (probably more intuitively than by socio-historical analysis) realised a good cultural fit in terms of work approach and ethics.

[Franknburger]

This is pretty interesting.

Saint Meinrad Archabbey monk earns three awards

Saint Meinrad Monastery.

"Saint Meinrad Archabbey was founded in 1854 by monks from Einsiedeln Abbey in Switzerland. They came to southern Indiana at the request of a local priest who was seeking help to serve the pastoral needs of the growing German-speaking Catholic population and to prepare local men to be priests."

So there is a definite connection to the Swiss/German-speaking community.

Indeed! From the Wikipedia articles on the Swiss Congregation of Benedictine Abbeys, headed by Einsiedeln Abbey, I take that there was more behind St. Meinrad's foundation than just the desire to fulfil a local priest's request:

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However, St. Meinhard is not located in Perry county, but in neighbouring Spencer county, which is far more Catholic and Republican, so this interesting piece of history does not help to clarify the issue in question.

Thyssen-Krupp has sold Waupaca Foundry.  Waupaca is named after the city in Wisconsin where it was founded.   Budd Company (Troy Michigan) acquired Waupaca in 1968, Thyssen-Krupp acquired Budd in 1978.   Construction began on the Tell City plant in 1996, and in Etowah, Tennessee in 2000.

KPS Capital PartnersAcquired Waupaca Foundry in 2012 from Thyssen-Krupp. 

So I don't think we can trace a connection between Thyssen-Krupp and politics in Perry County, unless we somehow involve Prescott Bush and the Carlyle Group.

Well, maybe there is a connection (though not the one I was originally thinking of): Investment into your town, 15 years of entrepreneurial continuity, and suddenly the plant is sold off to a financial investor. Should create quite some uncertainty about the future, which could affect sympathy for financial investment companies in general, and Mitt Romney - as exponent of the business - in particular.