NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Smash255]

Just an update on NY-1.  Absentees from the 60 ED's in Smithtown within the 1st district as well as 39 of the 42 ED's in the Town of Southampton have been counted, lowering Altschuler's margin to 280.  

The towns of East Hampton and Southold absentees will be counted today, no word yet on when Brookhaven (which is the largest), Riverhead or Shelter Island (the smallest) will be counted.

This is pretty good news for Bishop, Smithown is easily the most Republican portion of the district (McCain won it by 15..  The Southampton portion of the district went to Obama by 13.9.  The combination of the two went to McCain by 4 in a district Obama won by 4.  So Bishop picked up about 100 votes with the areas counted being a few points more GOP than the rest of the district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Supposedly Altschuler's lead is down to 90-odd votes in NY-01. Only source is Newsday, which of course has a paywall.

[Brittain33]

Altschuler challenged the legitimacy of absentee ballots cast by Tim Bishop's elderly parents.

[Smash255]

Supposedly Altschuler's lead is down to 90-odd votes in NY-01. Only source is Newsday, which of course has a paywall.

Paywall doesn't exist for me anymore for some reason.

Anyway Bishop is up 90 votes.  All of Smithtown and Southampton have been counted.  18 of the 19 ED's in Southold have been counted, 17 of the 19 in East Hampton, 3 of 22 in Riverhead.  The remaining 19 in Riverhead, the four in Shelter Island and the 294 in Brookhaven remain to be counted.  

 Bishop has picked up about 300 votes on Altschuler so far with about 1/3 of the absentees counted.  Generally both the most Republican and most Democratic areas have been counted.  

 What remains to be counted is probably slightly more Democratic than what has been counted so far, (though considering the higher concentration of absentees in East Hampton and Southampton, what remains might be slightly more GOP than was counted).  Either way what remains to be counted compared to what has already been counted likely won't benefit any side more than a minimal amount.

 Considering Bishop has picked up 300 votes so far, based off the fact 2/3 of absentees are left, and the areas that remain to be counted, Bishop will likely win.   Also Altschuler's camp has challenged more ballots than Bishop (486-318) the challenged ballots are not reflected in the 90 vote lead.  The challenge ballots by the Altschuler camp include absentees by Bishop's parents.

[Torie]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

[Smash255]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

[cinyc]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

Well, if Bishop loses, Alec Baldwin claims he will run in 2012.  A Hollyweird moron running for the Democrats Is something Pubbies need - though I doubt that's what Torie was thinking.

[Smash255]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

Well, if Bishop loses, Alec Baldwin claims he will run in 2012.  A Hollyweird moron running for the Democrats Is something Pubbies need - though I doubt that's what Torie was thinking.

Baldwin graduated high school where I went to Junior High (the district use to have two high schools, but went to one during the 80's, the h.s Baldwin went to became the Jr High)

[Smash255]

As of earlier today it is now 81 vote Altschuler lead.  East Hampton and Southold were finished, absentees from two additional districts in Riverhead were counted (now 5 of 22), 1 of 4 in Shelter Island were counted.

[Smash255]

Its now a 45 vote lead according to Newsday as the count moves towards Brookhaven.

Of the areas in which the absentees have been counted, Altschuler won the election day count 50.49-49.45, Bishop won the election day count  Brookhaven 50.11-49.82.  Brookhaven is by far the largest of the towns in the district  (made up 62.62% of the election day ballots) has about 5,000 absentee ballots

Edit.  A few sources are reporting Altschuler's lead is 30 votes as the Brookhaven count starts.  Also Altchuler has so far challenged 211 more ballots than Bishop (the challenged ballots have yet to be counted).  Its not known who the challenged votes are for, but age, party affiliation and residence are known.

http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/Southampton/312923/#comments

[Niemeyerite]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

[Smash255]

According to a tweet from Reid Epstein of Newsday, Bishop is now up by 15 votes.

[Mr.Phips]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

[Torie]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

Are they in session?  If they do that, I would suggest the Pubbies get rid of some inconvenient laws regarding district drawing in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The rules are crimping my style, as I struggle to effect an effective gerrymander that won't be ruled illegal. Particularly irritating are these trapped Pubbie votes in a black district in the Gross Pointes in Michigan that I can't get at, and I need them to fully realize my evil designs. It's tough!  

[Mr.Phips]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

Are they in session?  If they do that, I would suggest the Pubbies get rid of some inconvenient laws regarding district drawing in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The rules are crimping my style, as I struggle to effect an effective gerrymander that won't be ruled illegal. Particularly irritating are these trapped Pubbie votes in a black district in the Gross Pointes in Michigan that I can't get it, and I need them to fully realize my evil designs. It's tough! 

I dont think there are any rules in Pennsylvania. 

[Torie]

Its now a 45 vote lead according to Newsday as the count moves towards Brookhaven.

Of the areas in which the absentees have been counted, Altschuler won the election day count 50.49-49.45, Bishop won the election day count  Brookhaven 50.11-49.82.  Brookhaven is by far the largest of the towns in the district  (made up 62.62% of the election day ballots) has about 5,000 absentee ballots

Edit.  A few sources are reporting Altschuler's lead is 30 votes as the Brookhaven count starts.  Also Altchuler has so far challenged 211 more ballots than Bishop (the challenged ballots have yet to be counted).  Its not known who the challenged votes are for, but age, party affiliation and residence are known.

http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/Southampton/312923/#comments

Here is a good source of up to the minute reporting of the count in NY-1.  And yes, it does look like the Pubbie is about done for.

And yes, there are rules in PA, or at least a supposedly independent commission of some sort, or both. And PA "needs" a really good gerrymander. I did a number on Pittsburgh, with the CD following rust belt, burnt out steel mill river valleys that are like the tentacles of an octopus. It's just an awesome work of art, that should be hung in a prestigious museum. If the Dems change the rules in one state, that to me is something on the order of a declaration of war.

[nclib]

Bishop wins, hopefully =)

I've heard etheridge will concede =/. but ellmers will be very vulnerable in 2012

What, after the disgusting Democratic gerrymander is replaced by a disgusting Republican one? Hah.

I dont see why the Democratic legislature in NC doesnt quickly pass a law that gives the governor a veto over redistricting in the lame duck session.

Good idea, but unfortunately our legislature is not in session.

[rbt48]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

[Torie]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

The Pubbie's performance among absentees in Smithtown sucked, and that is the most GOP township in Suffolk within NY-1 of all. The A man has underperformed  among absentees so far in every township counted. Just an observation, and that is why I agree with Smash, that the A man is on the ropes. It is still a bit early to call this race, but his chances of winning are now in single digits in my opinion.

[Lunar]

Looks like Tim Bishop got an early shipment of Four Loko!!

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2010/11/bishop-up-by-15/

[Mr.Phips]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has already been counted. 

[Smash255]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district. 

[Torie]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

[Lunar]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

Yeah, it seems that NY-01 is your biggest potential foil, and that one is drifting D (like a glacier though).