The BlueSwan Basement of Absurd & Ignorant Posts VIII

[Politician]

Well, Kamala Harris has the benefit of being "new" to the federal scene (even though she's been around for decades) and thus has less baggage that GOPpers can use against her. But she's also a woman of color from Cali so therefore she's a horrible person, totally against those poor working class whites, a total coastal elitist, and even though she doesn't have any particular tone or history of being condescending, you know deep down she's a condescending b***h. Because well... Atlas reasons.

But Joe Biden won't suffer from any of that. He's a good old working class guy who loves the working class and Middle America (even though he has spent his political career in a coastal liberal state) and talks about the issues that real Americans face, not silly issues like police brutality, mass shootings, income inequality, and transphobia. Those are SJW issues.

[Politician]

LOL. RIP Politician and all the other posters who said Edmondson was inevitable.

Because when a Democrat is "ahead" 41-40 in Oklahoma of all places, clearly it is a total mystery which way the "undecideds" will break!

[Politician]

As long as she loses the primary by an extremely embarrassing margin, she can run.

As I've said many times before, I believe Trump would defeat her by double digits in the NPV in the general.

[Politician]

Okay, I honestly LOVE how Deplorable he is.

He'd win at least 45 states in a Republican primary against any Atlas RINO and then get at least 45% of the vote in the general (and even more if his Democratic opponent farted in an elevator or something.)

[Politician]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

The house is usually tougher to predict because the districts are so gerrymandered. With that being said there is definitely movement toward the GOP in the last week and movement away from the democrats. I do not think that Gillum can hold that lead he is too left wing for Florida and I think DeSantis will end up narrowily winning as well as Rick Scott. Florida is becoming fools gold for democrats just as PA used to be for the GOP. Things COULD CHANGE in the next month but it's not that long of a time and the enthusiasm of each side is now even according to the latest poll which is really bad news for democrats. The democrats got cocky again and overreached with Kavanaugh. They should have not pushed so hard and riled up the GOP base. Now you have an energized GOP base. I agree with the OP largely. The democrats are in trouble in 2020 and until 2026 probably. I think 2018 could end up being a surprising showing for the GOP and the democrats may not win the house back. Democrats are lost as a party right now. They have no coherent message other than they hate Trump. The economy is in a strong position and we are not at war. Trump is looking stronger and stronger to be reelected by the day.

[Politician]

Seriously...Republicans control every level of national and state government, and they have won three out of the last four elections. Republicans are heavy favorites to keep the Senate in 2018, and basically have a 50-50 shot of keeping the House. Their 2020 nominee is probably going to be Warren, who will have the same image problems as Hillary had.

I have been lurking around this forum since 2013, and liberals have been talking sh!t since Day 1. Where exactly does their confidence come from?

[Politician]

The Taylor Swift endorsement will mean at least a 53-46 Bredesen win.

Edit: Another one

Why does it bother people so much that there are a couple really rich people in the world? Rather than whining about that, can't we constructively focus on inclusive economic GROWTH and the institutional overhaul needed to optimize and deliver that growth.

Edit: And they keep coming in

Somewhere between Lean D and Likely D seems right for this, but it will certainly be close for California.

[Politician]

Totally:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1049691950704672769

So what? The energy is now even. It's not the #s it who turns out to vote and democrats notoriously struggle to turnout in midterms and now the GOP/GOP Leaners are enthused.

[Politician]

Ronald Reagan easily (The President  who ushered in the golden age of America , 1983-2001)

LOL, this is one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever seen.

1983-2001 America>1946-1963 American any day

So the era when the middle class was the strongest was inferior to the era where the 1% just got richer?

Quality of life today is objectively better than it used to be for the vast majority of America.

[Politician]

Ronald Reagan easily (The President  who ushered in the golden age of America , 1983-2001)

LOL, this is one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever seen.

1983-2001 America>1946-1963 American any day

So the era when the middle class was the strongest was inferior to the era where the 1% just got richer?

Quality of life today is objectively better than it used to be for the vast majority of America.

You genuinely believe the average middle class American was better off in the mid-twentieth century? Just because the 1% is way better off now doesn't mean everyone else isn't also better off.

Ask the people who have to work two jobs to barely scrape by.

Also, the % of wealth controlled by the middle class is much lower then in the 50s. Income inequality is out of control.

[Politician]

Gubernatorial coattails definitely DO exist.

[Politician]

Lean R, Evans would be leading.

[Politician]

Trump isn't gonna lose Ohio. He won by 10 last time...

[Politician]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_stauber_vs_radinovich-6355.html

Looks like the Kavanaugh bump is everywhere! #RedWave2018!

[Politician]

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Not impossible, nor unlikely. Last time we were in a similar situation with Bush, the Rs picked up a few seats in the midterms. Right now RCP has the race as essentially tied.

Remember, this isn't a presidential election year and Rs tend to do better in the midterms.

If the Senate is going to have R pickups then we're likely to see a similar situation in the House.

I've seen polls showing they are even in the generic ballot which means that Rs will net a bunch of seats.

[Politician]

Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.

[Politician]

Congratulations Governor Laxalt

you seriously gotta stop the trolling dude. like,at least lay out an argument.

The argument is that the country is rallying hard in favor of probable rapists. If a rape accusation can turn a blue wave into a red wave, then surely it can get one measly Nevada governor elected

[Politician]

I think we are now entering the period of the wave election season, where Democrats start gaining across the board until election day.

Keep dreaming. There will be no wave. It's going to be an ordinary midterm in which the governing party will lose some seats in the House. Trump isn't uniquely unpopular, it's just that America is uniquely polarized and the media are uniquely and uniformly opposed to him.

And in any case I fail to see how a Rosen +2 poll would indicate a "wave" in a race that was always a tossup or lean D in a state that was won by Hillary by more than 2.

[Politician]

Reminder that Atlas thinks Democrats should try to pander to rural racist "populist" Steve King voters, preferably while throwing their own base under the bus in the process.

[Politician]

We should steal Danny's money and give it to Wallace who actually has a chance.

[Politician]

I voted no. The republicans will narrowly hold on to the house by around 5-10 seats. You'll all look foolish after the election. Mark my words.

[Politician]

Like... There's no indication among polls that Hugin is gaining ground. He hasn't even led a single poll. There's a highly charged Democratic base ready to vote. New Jersey is on its way to possibly electing 11 Democrats and leaving behind only 1 Republican. Did I mention Hugin hasn't yet led in a poll?

But yes, New Jersey Tossup, let me believe your unscientific poll that you keep thinking is something serious, and let me keep believing your non-evidenced assertion that nj.com commenters are left-leaning (which isn't cited of course but when you're trying to stir things up who cares about proof?)

You'll be calling Mr. Hugin Senator Hugin this January

[Politician]

Congratulations to the people of Brazil for making the right choice tonight.

[Politician]

Liberals always dismiss stuff that isn't conventional wisdom. Yard signs may sound silly, the same as the crowds at rallies but we are in a new era where Trump is turning out people who never used to vote. He has a very large base and that cannot be discounted. I understand Michigan well I am from here. Debbie Stabenow has been in office 43 years. All the moderate voters I know are voting for James. It's going to be a tight race and the governors could be as well. Michigan is just not the reliably democratic state it used to be anymore. 2016 proved it. Tomorrow we will find out if the game has totally been changed and if Trump can defy conventional wisdom again.

[Politician]

1.Republicans flip 13 seats to take the House (50-60% chance)
2. Democrats have a net gain of 4 seats to take the Senate (10-20% chance)
3. Democrats win White House - No chance