Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

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Disgusting.

While obviously I don't approve of the attack in broader scope, I don't feel so bad for it happening to Handel. This isn't the first race they've went after her over matters of LGBT issues or abortion. In 2010, she was accused as being a member of the Log Cabin Republicans back in 2003 or so; she denied it. They uncovered old membership records and proved it, and she still denied it. For her to do that makes me view her as a coward, so let them string her up by it as far as I'm concerned. She should've owned it.

[Adam Griffin]

Oh. My. God.

This is the best thing I've seen in a while

[Adam Griffin]

OMG PRIMARY DAY PRIMARY DAY PRIMARY DAY

I'll be poll-watching throughout the day and at an election party tonight, but I'll try to report in with any interesting results/stats during or after 8 PM. Thankfully, even at an election night party, I'll more or less be hunched over a desk watching numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

Happy Primary Day Adam Griffin!

I'M VERY EXCITE


Just as a side-note, here's what I've been up to in our local primary.

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe they should pass out the weed after the ballots have been turned in, rather then "including it on the ballot".

They probably got hungry and left before filling it out.

We still expecting Handel to do well in Atlanta Metro or is going to be more dispersed with all the talk of her lack of education hasn't hurt her none?

It'll be her strongest base I bet, but she'll still get beaten by Perdue there.

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

OMG TURNOUT SKYROCKETING IN PENNINGTON'S BASE

DEAL IS FINISHED

RIP DEAL'S CARERR

NO IT'S THE WEED QUESTION

Srsly though, reports from other poll watchers and myself have all heard several disgruntled people emerge saying that they didn't get to vote on the weed question (because they thought it was both parties or a statewide vote, so they pulled an R ballot). Sad. I'll have two controls later, though: one is everything outside the Chatt media market, and the other is NW GA outside of Whitfield. I'll be able to figure out roughly how many idiots we lost along the way.

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry I've been away! I'll be filling this with lots of maps soon.



And also, look at the results of some of my Democratic Party's straw poll questions in Whitfield:


Should the State of Georgia legalize the possession of less than one ounce of marijuana for adults 21 and older?

64% Yes, 36% No

Should Whitfield County and Dalton City governments adopt a policy of diversity that expands against discrimination in employment, housing and public accommodations based upon sexual orientation and gender identity?

76% Yes, 24% No

Should the state of Georgia accept federal funds for Medicaid expansion, which would ensure those earning less than $15,000 per year ($1,250 per month) are eligible for Medicaid?

87% Yes, 13% No

Should the state of Georgia repeal HB 87, which authorizes police to demand papers demonstrating citizenship or immigration status during traffic stops?

57% Yes, 43% No

[Adam Griffin]

For the next two months, Kingston and Perdue are going to be spending millions going harshly negative against each other. This is going to be vicious and everyone is underestimating the extent this will help Nunn.

Since the runoff looks like a tossup right now (Kingston leads iirc) she has time to define herself as a candidate before they define her, and she really should capitalize on that.

I hope this really begins to occur soon. It seems that up until this point, she has been trying not to define herself as much of anything in an attempt to gain broad appeal. I'll admit that it's worked to some degree - I have people calling me to volunteer who wouldn't volunteer for any other Democrat (several have been Republicans).

I just worry that once the Republican nominee emerges, they're instantly going to begin painting her however they like, and that it'll work. It will be a shame for her to have had all these months to define herself thoroughly and forcefully without any push-back, only not to do so and wind up being railroaded by the tired old "OMG UR A PELOSI DEMOCRAT" schtick.

[Adam Griffin]

2010 % of primary voters who pulled a Dem ballot: 36%
2014 % of primary voters who pulled a Dem ballot: 33%

Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014



TREND - Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014



In Atlas colors and simplified; the same maps as above (swing on left; trend on right):

[Adam Griffin]

Let's play a game! Can you spot which South GA counties had competitive primaries in local elections this year?

RIP Dixiecrats

I could be wrong, but I'd bet a good chunk of that is a return to the mean of sorts after Dubose's media empire pushed an even greater % of the region to vote for him for Gov in the D primary in 2010. Some of those swings have to take into account both elements, though (Telfair, Dodge, Johnson; all border his home of Laurens).

EDIT: Look at the top swings to the Republicans - WTG, Dubose



And some of these Dem ones are even more perplexing:

[Adam Griffin]

RGA just did a $500k ad buy in Georgia for a Jason Carter/Obamacare ad:

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Seeing this size of an ad buy this early in GA by the RGA...imagine what their internals must be showing.

[Adam Griffin]

Just an update: now that the county-certified results from the primary are in, I've went back and revised the map I shared last week accordingly. Very small changes for the most part; reduced Dem performance in the Republican areas and increased Dem performance in the urban areas is the overall trend, both between 2010 and 2014 and between my first version and now. That's what I get for being giddy and trying to do it before the cities have certified. At the county level - particularly in South Georgia - some big swings between what was being shown on last Wednesday morning and today, some of which seem suspiciously large. You can find the interactive version here.

[Adam Griffin]

And just a summary:

[Adam Griffin]

Carter's first ads are online.

I think they'll play well.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like some of Georgia's anti-gun cities may just start naming all of their government buildings "the courthouse", or adding a courthouse function to their city halls to get around HB 60:

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I, for one, am grateful that our city hall and the county courthouse are already both inside one larger building.

[Adam Griffin]

Attention whoring: Carter and others came to my party's fundraising dinner we had last night, which we decided to rename from Jefferson-Jackson to Kennedy-Carter. Myself and others worked weeks to put it together, was the first one we've had in several years and was arguably the best Democratic dinner that NGA has had in many years. All in all, we got around 300 people to fork over dough to come, which made it the largest Democratic gathering in NGA since 2008. I should have some video/photos in the next day or two. In one of the photos in the article, you'll see me looking creepy in the background.

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[Adam Griffin]

Adam, congrats on the successful Kennedy-Carter dinner!

TXDems recently renamed our dinner too, to Johnson-Jordan (LBJ, Barbara Jordan)

Thanks!


Clayton County makes the move to finally bring MARTA in (bus and rail), which is in large part thanks to the purge of whites in the county (between 1990 & 2012, Clayton's demographics were the fastest-shifting of any county in the nation; from 73% white in 1990 to 13% white today):

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[Adam Griffin]

Why did so many whites leave Clayton County? And where did they go? To further outlying Atlanta area counties?

The Olympics helped in part; a lot of land was bought up from mostly white property owners to build event arenas as I understand it. Then there was of course the general white flight that was occurring all around the (then) outskirts of Atlanta, as well as a boom of black growth to Atlanta from other areas. There are other counties where the changes were almost as massive; Gwinnett went from 90% white to 44% white over the same time period, and is almost three times the size of Clayton. Rockdale and Douglas underwent similar changes.

It seems based on anecdotal observation that most of the whites that fled Clayton went to Fayette in particular, and Henry. Peachtree City is filled with former Riverdale folk.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/

(light pink = plurality white; pink = majority-white; red = >85% white)
(light blue = plurality black; blue = majority-black)

[Adam Griffin]

Jason Carter raises more than $2 mil in Q2.

[Adam Griffin]

BOOYA!

[QUOTE]Democrat Jason Carter’s campaign was hoping to stay in the ballpark against Gov. Nathan Deal’s donor network. Instead, the Atlanta state senator outpaced the Republican incumbent’s fundraising machine in the three months between April and June.

Deal’s campaign said Tuesday it raised $1.27 million in the second quarter and has $2.6 million in cash on hand going into the final four or so months ahead of the November election. Carter’s camp raised $2.02 million in the same timeframe and has $1.8 million in the bank.

The surprising results will be hard for Deal’s camp to spin, one reason they were likely released so late on Tuesday evening. The campaign noted, though, that 92 percent of its donors came from within the state. A Democratic source said about 70 percent of Carter’s supporters were in-state. We’ll be able to crunch the numbers when we get the full reports.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/07/08/jason-carter-outraises-gov-nathan-deal-in-latest-fundraising-report/

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

Let's hope so. But we have to remember that in the GA-Gov money race, this isn't necessarily anything new. The only time that a Republican candidate for Governor outraised the Democratic candidate was in 2006 (Barnes outraised Perdue and Deal, and yet lost both times).

[Adam Griffin]

Obviously this is a big f-ing deal:

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Then the interview:

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Keep in mind, this was the lady who has been accused of being Nathan Deal's lapdog and ally in dismissing charges.

It's also referenced that federal authorities already had a copy of this memo. With the public revelations, it wouldn't surprise me if we hear from the FBI really soon. It's becoming quite possible that Nathan Deal is indicted by federal authorities before the election.

[Adam Griffin]

News just gets better and better!

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[Adam Griffin]

You both fail to see the absolute joy this is Georgia Dems on this board, though.  We have known since 2010 (well, actually probably before) that Deal is a corrupt, crooked, shady, asshole; however, finally at long last, the rest of the state is starting to realize that.  Maybe, just maybe, the wall of ignorant admiration that most Georgians carry about their "God-lovin, gun-toting, Obama-bashing" right-wingers will start to crumble.  Even a few cracks are good for me.

Not to mention that this most recent admission - by the lady who has been accused of being Deal's puppet for so long - is a whole other level above the rest of the stuff. This is actually damning and dangerous for them, which is why you see the Gov saying "why didn't we know?", and the AG scuttling left and right about the memo.

[Adam Griffin]

Meanwhile, on the Senatorial sides of things, Jack Kingston joins the impeachment train.

Given that this is Georgia, I don't think this will change much.

I feel like Perdue will win the primary now, because this is a sign of desperation.

On the ground, Perdue seems like a long-shot at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if Kingston won this by 20 points in the end. All the major power-players are lining up behind him, and even the Tea Party (whether that is by coincidence or merely not wanting to lose; they don't really have a candidate anyway) is doing the same.

Oh well, at least we're getting good soundbites...

I think Perdue is the one who's getting desperate now.

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