Ohio in 2016

[DS0816]

Ohio was the only state, in Election 2012, where the male (45%) and female (55%) votes matched that of Barack Obama's national support. Margin spread, statewide vs. nationwide, was 0.87%.

Ohio will continue its bellwether status and carry for the 2016 presidential winner.

I think, given I've mentioned that this is a Democratic presidential realignment period, that Ohio will remain on pace to routinely get carried by the winners. And the interesting thing people want to watch is to see whether a Democrat win the presidency with carriage of Ohio above his/her national margin.

[DS0816]

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.

^ This! ^

Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry Hamilton County in 2008 since Lyndon Johnson from 1964.

Obama carried Hamilton County, in both 2008 and 2012, above his Ohio margins.

I disagree with those thinking demographics will have the state of Ohio trend Republican. No Republican can carry Ohio if they're not carrying Hamilton County.

And the talk of demographics isn't the entire picture. After all, Obama carried Iowa in both his elections in part because he carried the state's white voters. They were more than 90 percent of the size of the state's vote in both 2008 and 2012. And Iowa tilts a couple percentage points more Democratic than national margins.

This means people's backgrounds, from particular states, says more than what is general considered.

[DS0816]

Ohio is always and will always be crucial. The Cuyahoga area is crucial for the Democrats. Republicans have to do well near Hamilton County and the Cincinnati area.

^ This! ^

Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry Hamilton County in 2008 since Lyndon Johnson from 1964.

Obama carried Hamilton County, in both 2008 and 2012, above his Ohio margins.

I disagree with those thinking demographics will have the state of Ohio trend Republican. No Republican can carry Ohio if they're not carrying Hamilton County.

And the talk of demographics isn't the entire picture. After all, Obama carried Iowa in both his elections in part because he carried the state's white voters. They were more than 90 percent of the size of the state's vote in both 2008 and 2012. And Iowa tilts a couple percentage points more Democratic than national margins.

This means people's backgrounds, from particular states, says more than what is general considered.

Iowa was an odd case. Obama would have lost 46 states if only whites voted, but he still would have won Iowa.

No. Iowa was not "an odd case." It's not the only state with level of whites' voting size. People have become so carried away with talking up demographics that they come across sounding as it that's the only thing that determines victory.