Gasconade County, Missouri: Slightly more blue

[RBH]

Here's a batch of Gasconade County election results

They've went Republican every year since 1860.

That includes such wins as a 76/13 win in 1924, 80/20 win in 1928, 56/43 win in 1932, 65/34 win in 1936, 83/17 win in 1944, 78/22 win in 1948

And recently, 65/34 Bush in 2004.

Here's some more Gasconade results

Senate
1968: 77/23 Rep (+28 R)
1974: 70/30 Rep (+21 R)
1980: 71/28 Rep (+23 R)
1986: 73/27 Rep (+20 R)
1992: 63/34 Rep (+11 R)
1998: 64/34 Rep (+13 R)
2004: 69/30 Rep (+13 R)

1970: 73/27 Rep (+25 R)
1976: 73/27 Rep (+16 R)
1982: 71/29 Rep (+20 R)
1988: 82/17 Rep (+14 R)
1994: 74/22 Rep (+14 R)
2000: 60/39 Rep (+12 R)
2002: 61/37 Rep (+11 R)
2006: 58/38 Rep (+11 R)

For Governor (difference between the R percentage in Gasconade and statewide)-

1968: 68/32 Rep (+29 R)
1972: 73/27 Rep (+18 R)
1976: 69/31 Rep (+19 R)
1980: 70/30 Rep (+17 R)
1984: 76/24 Rep (+19 R)
1988: 77/22 Rep (+13 R)
1992: 52/48 Rep (+11 R)
1996: 51/46 Rep (+11 R)
2000: 62/35 Rep (+14 R)
2004: 65/34 Rep (+14 R)

From 1996 on, here are the only Democrats to win Gasconade County:

Jay Nixon (1996, 2000, and 2004, AG) and Claire McCaskill (2002, Auditor)

And all of those times, the Democrat won with 59%

Given some work, Democrats could carry Gasconade county by 2040

[RBH]

granted, I just saw this news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No word on any county maps for this race.

[Rob]

You can see the same thing happening in ancestrally Republican areas across the South, like east Tennessee. For example: in 1936, FDR received 22 percent of the vote in Sevier County. In 2004, John Kerry polled 28 percent of the vote in Sevier. Might not sound like much, but consider their relative performances statewide and nationally...

Really, I think you can chalk this up to the final breakdown of Civil War voting patterns. The old Unionist areas are still fairly Republican, but now it's because of mundane issues (guns and gays). These places will vote for the right kind of Democrat, which wouldn't have been true seventy years ago.

[RBH]

Yeah, it's one of those odd alignments that the areas in East Kentucky, East Tennessee, and other areas align with the GOP so well nowadays too.

For all we know, Gasconade County was just full of people who wanted to get rid of slavery, but were conservatives on most issues.

[GMantis]

It was also one of only two counties in the entire South to vote for Lincoln in 1860 (the other one, amusingly, was St. Louis county).
When you look at past maps by counties, it sticks out like a sore thumb by being dark blue even in very democratic years.