2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am shocked that Bergen county did not vote for Christie.  It is always more Republican than the state average.

Actually, I don't think it is.  More amazingly, we voted for the Republican freeholders.  BOTH OF THEM

To be fair, the Democratic campaign was embarrassing, openly suggesting that the Republican candidate was forcing cigarettes into kids' mouths.  I didn't care much about the LD-36 race (even though the Democrats are both tools), but it'd have been nice to see a few more points of movement towards the GOP in LD-38.

[Brittain33]

I am depressed that good D legislators went down in droves in Virginia while everyone in NJ kept their jobs except Corzine. Really a bad scenario for good government.

[Coburn In 2012]

GREAT....Now republicans will be bragging about winning both Governor races

Hahaha!  Yes.  Like weve had to listen to democRAT bragging since the messiah won.

But this is just the start.  last night's perfect sweep means a HUGE TIDE of GOP wins can be expected in 2010 and 2o12.

Look for a 1994 style GOP take over of teh house and sen, many govs and more statehouses.

People are rejecting marxism once and for all.  obama will have to go back to dealing crack.  Oh excuse me...sorry..."community organizing."

Perfect sweep, eh? NY-23? CA-10? How do those races fit into the sweep?

C 10 was expected.

NY 23 looks like it was a bad election courtesy of ACORN.

face it libs.  We beat you in VA, VA statehouses, NJ and maine.  Your leninist agenda has been exposed and in 2010 we will win back the house and sen.  and in 2012 the crack house will become the white house once again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ChrisJG777]

GREAT....Now republicans will be bragging about winning both Governor races

Hahaha!  Yes.  Like weve had to listen to democRAT bragging since the messiah won.

But this is just the start.  last night's perfect sweep means a HUGE TIDE of GOP wins can be expected in 2010 and 2o12.

Look for a 1994 style GOP take over of teh house and sen, many govs and more statehouses.

People are rejecting marxism once and for all.  obama will have to go back to dealing crack.  Oh excuse me...sorry..."community organizing."

Perfect sweep, eh? NY-23? CA-10? How do those races fit into the sweep?

C 10 was expected.

NY 23 looks like it was a bad election courtesy of ACORN.

face it libs.  We beat you in VA, VA statehouses, NJ and maine.  Your leninist agenda has been exposed and in 2010 we will win back the house and sen.  and in 2012 the crack house will become the white house once again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok, which of you guys wants to tell him that it's not 1993/1994 any more?  (And even then, Clinton still won in 1996)

And another thing, Coburn here obviously has no idea what Leninism is either, which makes it all the more amusing when I see him misuse that and similar political terms.

[Brittain33]

And another thing, Coburn here obviously has no idea what Leninism is either, which makes it all the more amusing when I see him misuse that and similar political terms.

Didn't we agree he's a joke poster?

[Mechaman]

Last night New Jersey did more than just elect a new governor, it proved that it is no long the joke state I always thought it was.

[Sam Spade]

I am depressed that good D legislators went down in droves in Virginia while everyone in NJ kept their jobs except Corzine. Really a bad scenario for good government.

As I said before, that's the electorate saying "We voted for you, Christie, but we don't trust you enough to give you 'mandate-style' control."

Besides, I think some amount of regression (or progression) back to the GOP is occurring in VA among moderates/independents/Obama voters that I don't see in NJ.

[Beet]

I agree. The 2009 map looks very much like the 1993 map. McDonnell ran a campaign focused on budgetary issues and won back the fiscal conservatives.

The thesis turned out to be a curse in disguise for Deeds, as it drew him into divisive social issue attacks that failed when McDonnell trotted out his family to reassure voters that he's not the man he was in his mid-30s.

One of the big losers here is the Washington Post editorial board under Fred Hiatt, who has in recent years built up somewhat of a kingmaker reputation.

[Brittain33]

Besides, I think some amount of regression (or progression) back to the GOP is occurring in VA among moderates/independents/Obama voters that I don't see in NJ.

Yes. I am curious to see what Virginia government is like in the next few years. The results yesterday are a dramatic setback for the VA Dems' planned march back to the majority which had been going so well for so long. I'm not surprised by McDonnell, because people forget how Warner and Kaine had to do absolutely everything right in order to eke out narrow wins; but the Dems really were doing well legislatively in growth areas in recent years. Democrats may well be cursing that one-seat margin in the senate when the time comes for the budget.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am depressed that good D legislators went down in droves in Virginia while everyone in NJ kept their jobs except Corzine. Really a bad scenario for good government.

As I said before, that's the electorate saying "We voted for you, Christie, but we don't trust you enough to give you 'mandate-style' control."

Besides, I think some amount of regression (or progression) back to the GOP is occurring in VA among moderates/independents/Obama voters that I don't see in NJ.

Or, more like: Who the hell are these GOP candidates I've never even heard of before?  Democrats spent their GOP challengers into the ground, just like they've done every year since 2001.  It'll be nice to see some of that money dry up without a Democrat in Drumthwacket.

Predictably enough, the closest Assembly races in the state were the ones that Republicans gave up on and Democrats didn't spend money to defend.  Republicans openly admitted to the press that they surrendered LD-03, and they almost won it with a hardline conservative.  No one took Republicans seriously in LD-04 even after some very favorable press, and that was the seat they picked up.  Democrats probably never even polled LD-18, little less spent serious money to defend it.  No one at the State Committee probably even knew the names of the candidates in LD-38, but they did better than their top recruits in LD-36.

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Oh, no, I saw some.  Christie wouldn't have won without doing well in Union and Middlesex with the long-forgotten Reagan Democrats (really, Reagan Independents-who-usually-vote-Dem), but the real eye-opener for me was how well Christie did amongst the voters who were reliably Republican up until 2006.  I mean, Ferguson struggled in Hunterdon in 2006, but Christie won it by 41 points.

[Meeker]

Can someone map it up Atlas-style?

[You kip if you want to...]

Can someone map it up Atlas-style?

Atlas Style

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Atlas Style

I love how counterintuitive that map is.  This has to be, literally, the first time a Republican has ever won the state of New Jersey without carrying Bergen.  And to do it while carrying Middlesex... man, this is why I love politics.

[ElectionAtlas]

Can someone map it up Atlas-style?

Link  I had it up last night

Maps 1993-2009

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Can someone map it up Atlas-style?

Link  I had it up last night

Maps 1993-2009

Love the progression from 2001 to 2005 to 2009. 

[Brittain33]

I love how counterintuitive that map is.  This has to be, literally, the first time a Republican has ever won the state of New Jersey without carrying Bergen.  And to do it while carrying Middlesex... man, this is why I love politics.

I suppose this makes Middlesex officially a Parkway county now. With Christie doing well in Woodbridge and Sayreville, you could make a case for that.

My family is in Middlesex and the taxes are incredible. Unlike Bergen, you don't have any prestige or pretty townscapes with cute railway stations to go along with it, although the schools are decent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From a quick look at overall demographics, Middlesex and Bergen don't seem to be all that different fwiw. Details of the differences would be nice

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Can someone map it up Atlas-style?

Link  I had it up last night

Maps 1993-2009

Love the progression from 2001 to 2005 to 2009. 

[Brittain33]

From a quick look at overall demographics, Middlesex and Bergen don't seem to be all that different fwiw. Details of the differences would be nice

I'm a little fuzzy on my knowledge of Bergen. I would say that Bergen is more polarized economically, with poorer cities yoked to more affluent suburbs. Middlesex has a few poor areas, but by and large it is middle class and lower middle class suburbia planted on flat farmland and swamps. Middlesex has a booming S. Asian population which is more economically diverse than S. Asian communities elsewhere in the country, which is one way of saying that it's more than just a highly educated elite. Middlesex has old working class factory towns and mill towns (including one called, literally, Milltown) that have been leavened with suburban development over the years; I'm not sure Bergen ever had that kind of non-metropolitan industrial presence. I get the sense you still have young families setting up en masse in Middlesex while in Bergen the suburbs are older and costlier to break into.

Middlesex is Long Island to Bergen's Westchester, I suppose. There are a lot of problems with that comparison. Middlesex never had a Republican machine.

It's interesting to note that Middlesex was one of the first parts of the state to drift back to the Democrats after the anti-Florio tax revolt. Democrats picked up a few Assembly seats there in '97.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From a quick look at overall demographics, Middlesex and Bergen don't seem to be all that different fwiw. Details of the differences would be nice

I'm a little fuzzy on my knowledge of Bergen. I would say that Bergen is more polarized economically, with poorer cities yoked to more affluent suburbs. Middlesex has a few poor areas, but by and large it is middle class and lower middle class suburbia planted on flat farmland and swamps. Middlesex has a booming S. Asian population which is more economically diverse than S. Asian communities elsewhere in the country, which is one way of saying that it's more than just a highly educated elite. Middlesex has old working class factory towns and mill towns (including one called, literally, Milltown) that have been leavened with suburban development over the years; I'm not sure Bergen ever had that kind of non-metropolitan industrial presence. I get the sense you still have young families setting up en masse in Middlesex while in Bergen the suburbs are older and costlier to break into.

Middlesex is Long Island to Bergen's Westchester, I suppose. There are a lot of problems with that comparison. Middlesex never had a Republican machine.

It's interesting to note that Middlesex was one of the first parts of the state to drift back to the Democrats after the anti-Florio tax revolt. Democrats picked up a few Assembly seats there in '97.

A pretty solid analysis.  I wrote up something very similar, but then decided to defer—the gist was the same: Bergen is much more polarized.  Bergen has two safe GOP Assembly districts, Middlesex has none.  Northern Bergen is actually obnoxiously wealthy; there's just no area in Middlesex that quite compares.

I don't know if I'd call Middlesex "Long Island," since it's never had any sort of GOP presence there in modern times.  It's maybe closer to Queens, where it's almost always Democratic, but slips every now and then when the whites get angry?

Middlesex started giving up ground to Democrats in 1993 with Corman's state senate seat going to Jim McGreevey; 1995 mostly finished them off in the Assembly.  IIRC, only Sen. Jack Singara survived to 1997 (and beyond).

[Ronnie]

Is it possible that Christie will win Bergen after the absentees are counted?

[Alexander Hamilton]

Love how I nailed the prediction down to the percentage 3 whole months ago. Guess I'm just a genius.

[CJK]

Does anyone know why the exit polls included the 2008 vote in Virginia but omitted it in New Jersey?

[cinyc]

Does anyone know why the exit polls included the 2008 vote in Virginia but omitted it in New Jersey?

Even in the pre-election polling, that was a question that was asked in Virginia, but not often in New Jersey. 

[auburntiger]

I was worried about this race, but I'm glad Christie pulled it off. He'll be an enormous asset to NJ!

^^^^

I was actually predicting a Jon Corzine victory.

same here. never been happier to have been proven wrong.