ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)

[IceSpear]

Well yeah, of course. If Heitkamp wasn't doing well in Fargo and Grand Forks she'd be on her way to a 20+ point Blanching. But if the rest of the state is swinging R, it's not like it would be unlikely for Cramer to have a decent sized lead.

[IceSpear]

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

The conventional wisdom is that Western ND is going to swing R (though how strongly is an open question) with Eastern ND either staying the same (which would lead to a Cramer win) or swing D (the extent of which could determine whether Heitkamp has a chance or not.) If these areas are swinging slightly D from 2012, my guess would be that's not enough for Heitkamp to hold on. But this person could very well be taking issue with the fact that Cramer +10 is too high and thinking the Cramer +4/5 polls were more reasonable.

[IceSpear]

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

Yeah, like I said above, most likely this person does think Cramer is leading but that +10 is too high. I doubt they would've gone on a Tweeting spree if it was another Cramer +4 poll.