🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[tomhguy]

I&O Research poll, November 6-7:

NSC: 29 seats (+2 from 10/24)
VVD: 26
GL/PvdA: 24 (-1)
PVV: 18 (-1)
BBB: 8 (-3)
D66: 8 (+2)
SP: 6 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-2)
FvD: 5 (+1)
Volt: 5
CDA: 4
DENK: 4 (+1)
CU: 3
SGP: 3
JA21: 1 (-1)
BVNL: 1 (+1)
BIJ1: 0
50+: 0

BBB looking like it could fall into 6th place - yet again another Dutch insurgent party which fails to sustain its growth. How long will NSC last after the election?

[tomhguy]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

I mean, it's also true that the VVD are only looking atm to lose around 5ish seats, which is only around 15% of their seats. Compare this to the Conservatives in the UK who are looking likely to lose around 200 seats or around two thirds of their seats! Now it becomes a bit more clear that one party is clearly doing worse respectively!

Also note how the VVD are most likely going to be part of the next government, while the Conservatives in the UK almost definitely will not!

[tomhguy]

There are still 4 debates until election day. Things could change till Wednesday.

Oh yeah, definitely a lot could change - Dutch elections tend to be relatively volatile in the last week or so (see D66 in 2021, VVD in 2017 or PVV in 2010). However, for some reason my gut feeling seems to be telling me that NSC really are going to flop compared to polling until recently. I think voters may be very apprehensive about Omtzigt's lack of willingness surrounding being PM etc.... After all the ups and downs of the last 2 years, could we just end up with the same result the Dutch always seem to get and have the VVD in 1st place again lol?

[tomhguy]

"Election presence" seems lower than usual in the Netherlands - particularly with a lot fewer posters in people's houses than before. Also not as much paid advertisement - on highways mostly VVD with some JA21, FVD and GL-PvdA; at bus stops mostly GL-PvdA, D66 and VVD. On the other hand, switch on the radio on a random music station for an hour and they will talk about the election. Feels like there is no all-encompassing election theme and many people could still switch within their ideologically coherent subset of parties. It could make GL-PvdA into the biggest party - but not sure which other parties would be willing to make Timmermans PM...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't this election originally billed to be the "immigration election". Why do you think it hasn't really panned out that way?

[tomhguy]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't this election originally billed to be the "immigration election". Why do you think it hasn't really panned out that way?

I think it was a mistake to think it would be the central theme in the first place. The reason a government collapses isn't always the central theme of the next election, especially with more than 4 months between the collapse of the government and the general election in which all sorts of other things can happen. But immigration absolutely is one of the central themes of this election, with three out of the four big parties - VVD, NSC and PVV - all emphasizing it.

If immigration has been one of the big issues of the right parties, has GL-PvdA got a strong theme that they're pushing? Because from what it seems like, a lot of their votes are simply tactical votes to try and stop some kind of right-wing government involving PVV?

[tomhguy]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1726674739354042779?t=u5wtzC1EUN78MuDMKc...

So the PVV surge most likely is at least a bit true then based on the last 2 polls and this poll seems to suggest that it is leading to tactical voting.
I wonder whether the decline of NSC is mainly NSC -> PVV voters or whether they are going elsewhere?

[tomhguy]

Random prediction because may as well totally embarass myself:

PVV 32
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 25
NSC 17
D66 10
SP 6
BBB 5
PvdD 4
DENK 4
CDA 4
Volt 4
FVD 3
CU 3
SGP 3
BVNL 1
JA21 1
BIJ1 1
50Plus 0

Now expecting some kind of shift towards the right in terms of government formation, especially if the PVV surge is true as the polls and tea leaves suggest....

[tomhguy]

Hmmmm I guess these turnouts figures based on that could be good for the PVV then? Obviously just one sign, but may confirm the PVV surge

[tomhguy]

Welp, that's a lot bigger lead for the PVV than the polls were suggesting. The only nice thing about this is that I seem to have predicted the order of the main parties correctly lol

[tomhguy]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PVDA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-1)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

On these numbers, how realistic is a PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB coalition? Would NSC work with PVV?

[tomhguy]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

[tomhguy]

What are the chances of a PVV-PvdA coalition?

Zero?

[tomhguy]

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

No majority in the senate though and probably not a stable government anyway

Yea true, but it's the only non-PVV government I can really see that would be realistic without involving loads of parties haha

[tomhguy]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

[tomhguy]

Gronigen just came in, with GL-PvdA doing very well here (despite somewhat mediocre performance in a lot of more rural districts).
Gl-PvdA: 30.4 (+11.6)
PVV: 13.2 (+7.5)
NSC: 11.6 (+11.6)
VVD: 10.6 (-3.1)
D66: 9.0 (-14.0)
SP: 4.3 (-3.3)
PVDD: 4.3 (-1.9)
VOLT: 3.8 (-1.7)
....

Here it seems to be a case of strong tactical voting for GL-PvdA from a number of progressive parties.

[tomhguy]

Groningen, Netherlands' 6th largest city has just reported its results:

30.4% GL-PvdA (+11.6)
13.2% PVV (+7.5)
11.6% NSC (new)
10.6% VVD (-3.1)
  9.0% D66 (-14.0)
  4.3% SP (-3.3)
  4.1% PVdD (-1.9)
  3.8% Volt (-1.7)
  2.6% CU (-1.4)
  2.3% BBB (+1.9)

Snap!

[tomhguy]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

[tomhguy]

Seems to me now that the exit poll projection of 50+ getting a seat is getting less and less likely to occur in reality....

aaaaand the exit poll got adjusted with their seat going to PVV

I'm clearly a prophet what can I say