For those of you who believe TX will stay a Republican state in the long term, why?

[Skill and Chance]

Because I suspect in the long run that R's will win Texas Hispanics by close to the same margin they win religious white people in Texas.

[Skill and Chance]

These things aren’t always 100% correlated and Rs can still make up ground elsewhere

But where, is the question? I can't think of any remotely viable electoral map which would involve Republicans winning sans Texas.

The Northern WWC votes just like the Southern WWC scenario would work.  Easy GOP sweep of the non-IL Midwest with half of New England being swing states.  This was under serious debate as where we might be heading circa 2017 but has faded away since then,.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think there needs to be any deep ideological story here.  If it happens, the answer will simply be Texas Hispanics assimilating toward white Evangelical culture.