2014-2024 Ontario ridings (Canada)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Now that we know the formula for determining the number of seats each province will have (The pop-per-seat must match the pop-per-seat in Quebec, which has 75 seats) I'm wondering if anyone wants to help me put together a potential 2014 Ontario election map. I've done it twice before, but I'd like to get it done properly this time. If anyone is interested, please post below, and I will respond with what I'm thinking.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're going to add ridings, aren't they? Like, more so than the original formula would give.

I would be down for this. I can at least do the Ottawa area. Apparently the start with Ottawa-Vanier to make sure there is a riding with lots of Francophones, and then work the other ridings around it.

My guess is Nepean-Carleton will split up.

[trebor204]

Under the new formula BC gains 7 seats, Alberta 5 seats and Ontario 10 seats.

If you check the post 'Canadian federal polling division files - page 28'. You can gerryminder at least a seat for the Consevatives in Toronto.

[mileslunn]

Under the new formula BC gains 7 seats, Alberta 5 seats and Ontario 10 seats.

If you check the post 'Canadian federal polling division files - page 28'. You can gerryminder at least a seat for the Consevatives in Toronto.

I think it is now 21 seats in Ontario.  Dalton McGuinty made a big fuss about not adding enough seats to Ontario and intially the Tories ignored this since they wanted to change them in their favour, but after failing to make big gains in Quebec, while making gains in Ontario in 2008, I think they agreed to add 21 seats in Ontario.  Probably a lot of new ones in the 905 belt.  In places such as Mississauga and Brampton you could probably create a safe Conservative seat without too much trouble depending on how it was drawn up.  Hopefully they aren't gerrymandered in favour of any party.  I don't made one party gaining from re-distribution if most of the population growth has been in areas they are strong though, I just oppose gerrymandering in their favour.

Also as a side topic, does anyone think they will get rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings in Saskatchewan which seem to give the Tories an unfair advantage.

[Hatman 🍁]

Under the new formula BC gains 7 seats, Alberta 5 seats and Ontario 10 seats.

If you check the post 'Canadian federal polling division files - page 28'. You can gerryminder at least a seat for the Consevatives in Toronto.

For sure, and I would support that, even though I'm an NDP supporter. 

Under the new formula BC gains 7 seats, Alberta 5 seats and Ontario 10 seats.

If you check the post 'Canadian federal polling division files - page 28'. You can gerryminder at least a seat for the Consevatives in Toronto.

I think it is now 21 seats in Ontario.  Dalton McGuinty made a big fuss about not adding enough seats to Ontario and intially the Tories ignored this since they wanted to change them in their favour, but after failing to make big gains in Quebec, while making gains in Ontario in 2008, I think they agreed to add 21 seats in Ontario.  Probably a lot of new ones in the 905 belt.  In places such as Mississauga and Brampton you could probably create a safe Conservative seat without too much trouble depending on how it was drawn up.  Hopefully they aren't gerrymandered in favour of any party.  I don't made one party gaining from re-distribution if most of the population growth has been in areas they are strong though, I just oppose gerrymandering in their favour.

Also as a side topic, does anyone think they will get rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings in Saskatchewan which seem to give the Tories an unfair advantage.

I hope so, but I doubt it.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Under the new formula BC gains 7 seats, Alberta 5 seats and Ontario 10 seats.

If you check the post 'Canadian federal polling division files - page 28'. You can gerryminder at least a seat for the Consevatives in Toronto.

I think it is now 21 seats in Ontario.  Dalton McGuinty made a big fuss about not adding enough seats to Ontario and intially the Tories ignored this since they wanted to change them in their favour, but after failing to make big gains in Quebec, while making gains in Ontario in 2008, I think they agreed to add 21 seats in Ontario.  Probably a lot of new ones in the 905 belt.  In places such as Mississauga and Brampton you could probably create a safe Conservative seat without too much trouble depending on how it was drawn up.  Hopefully they aren't gerrymandered in favour of any party.  I don't made one party gaining from re-distribution if most of the population growth has been in areas they are strong though, I just oppose gerrymandering in their favour.

Also as a side topic, does anyone think they will get rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings in Saskatchewan which seem to give the Tories an unfair advantage.

I actually did a bit of research. Quite a few of these seats are on the order of 90% urban

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to 2009 projections, Quebec's population is 7,782,561. Ontario's is 13,150,000

This gives us a new grand total of 127 ridings. Hence, we need to cut the province into 127 chunks.

I'll put more info bu later tonight

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/projections/2007/demog07t6.html

The average riding should have about 103k voters...

Northern Ontario should be over-represented. Taking a look at the existing ridings, they seem good. Specifically, the existing Ontario ridings, which has one extra riding in the north. With an additional 21 seats to play around with, surly 1 of them could go to the north. This will give the North 11 ridings, meaning we have 116 left to play with.

Using the link above, I say we, ourselvs, can determine all of these districts.

Here's the existing map of southern ontario.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When we calculate out the north, we get 108.96k people per riding in southern ontario, rounded to 109k.

Toronto is projected to have 2,720k people. With 109k per riding, this gives us almost exactly 25 seats. Hence, Toronto will need to be divided into 25 ridings. Doing that is actually not crirical at this juncture, we can and will come back to it.

Ottawa will have 878.6, div by 109 is nearly exactly 8, hence the City of Ottawa needs to be divided into 8 ridings. Again, we can and will come back to this.

The Peel Region will need 13 seats
York, 10
Durham ends up with 5.4 seats
Halton, 4.7
Hamilton ends with almost exactly 5
Niagara with almost exactly 4

I will continue for all counties. I will then break things down by city and we can start dividing up the ridings themselvs.

If we are really successful at this, we could present our proposals to Parliament/Elections Canada/Elections Ontario/Queens Park.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

1.4   -   Frontenac   
1.3   -   Hastings   
0.6   -   Lanark   
1.0   -   Leeds & Grenville   
0.4   -   Lennox & Addington   
0.8   -   Prescott & Russell   
0.2   -   Prince Edward   
0.9   -   Renfrew   
1.1   -   Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry

These counties are in Eastern Ontario. They add up to 7.7 ridings. Durham needs 5.4, together these areas need 13 seats. I propose we draw our first boundary here and work with this.

The Remainder of the ridings would, due to rounding equal one less than we have to play with, so a slight adjustment is needed.


1.4   -   Brant   
0.6   -   Dufferin   
1.1   -   Haldimand-Norfolk   
0.2   -   Haliburton   
0.8   -   Northumberland   
1.3   -   Peterborough   
4.6   -   Simcoe   - Contains Barrie (needs to be broken down)
0.7   -   Kawartha Lakes   
5.0   -   Waterloo   - Contains Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge (needs to be broken down)
2.1   -   Wellington   
0.6   -   Bruce   
0.9   -   Elgin   
4.0   -   Essex   - Contains Windsor (needs to be broken down)
0.9   -   Grey   
0.6   -   Huron   
1.0   -   Chatham-Kent   
1.3   -   Lambton   
4.3   -   Middlesex   - Contains London (needs to be broken down)
1.0   -   Oxford   
0.8   -   Perth   
4.9   -   halton (ADJUSTMENT)    


These remaining seats need 38 seats.

Note that this adjustment means the average riding in western Ontario will be slightly smaller in population than ridings in Eastern Ontario. Considering this is where the population is growing I dont see this is a big deal. (Variance if 4% for the record)

map below.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll do Ottawa.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'll do Ottawa.

Feel free... I dont know where you'll find enough population berakdowns within the city to get each riding to be within a small variance, but if you can find it, feel free to begin. I'm going to try to break Western and Eastern Ontario up.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll do Ottawa.

Feel free... I dont know where you'll find enough population berakdowns within the city to get each riding to be within a small variance, but if you can find it, feel free to begin. I'm going to try to break Western and Eastern Ontario up.

Uhh, ever heard of geosearch? I can get population data down to the block.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

awesome.
PLEASE NOTE
It has come to my attention that Eastern Ontario is, in fact, already over-represented by a small degree. In order to keep this over-representation, I am making the following adjustment. Western Ontario's helpful variance of 4% is removed. Now only Halton has that helpful variance. The remainder of the counties is as follows.

1.3   -   Brant
0.6   -   Dufferin
1.1   -   Haldimand-Norfolk
0.2   -   Haliburton
0.8   -   Northumberland
1.3   -   Peterborough
4.4   -   Simcoe
0.7   -   Kawartha Lakes
4.8   -   Waterloo
2.0   -   Wellington
0.6   -   Bruce
0.8   -   Elgin
3.9   -   Essex
0.9   -   Grey
0.6   -   Huron
1.0   -   Chatham-Kent
1.2   -   Lambton
4.2   -   Middlesex
1.0   -   Oxford
0.7   -   Perth


Eastern Ontario is changed as follows.

1.5   -   Frontenac
1.4   -   Hastings
0.7   -   Lanark
1.0   -   Leeds & Grenville
0.4   -   Lennox & Addington
0.9   -   Prescott & Russell
0.3   -   Prince Edward
1.0   -   Renfrew
1.1   -   Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry
5.8   -   Durham


We should try to stick with what Parliament has done in the past. IE try to keep the ridings similar and avoid radical changes. If we do this right there's no reason Parliament cannot accept what we've done and make it real. Once we are satisfied with what we've done, we can even transpose the results from the most recent election (by the time we are done I suspect that'll be the 2009 election) on to the new ridings we've created, and present it as a fully completed thing. If we take this seriously enough, we could actually do this, and really present it to Parliament.

also, the map above has been updated. hit refresh.



to sum.
Ridings in Ottawa, Toronto, York, Peel, Hamilton, Niagara, and Western Ontario should have 109,000 people per riding.

Ridings in eastern ontario, durham, and halton should have 103,000

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa eastern boundary fail

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ALSO, turns out I made another minor error.

Let me go back and review everything I've done so far. Earl, you go ahead. Ottawa has 8 ridings, that is not an error.

edit - your right earl lol. I'm making errors like a baseball player tonight.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

seats - area - (pop per seat)

25.0   Toronto (109)
6.0   Durham (107)
5.0   Halton (103)
13.0   Peel (109.5)
10.0   York (109)
5.0   Hamilton (109)
8.0   Ottawa (110)
4.0   Niagara (110)
4.0   Essex (107)
1.0   Chatham-Kent (109)
81   SELF CONTAINED
   
4.4   Simcoe (110)
4.8   Waterloo (110)
2.0   Wellington (110)
1.3   Brant (110)
0.6   Dufferin (110)
1.0   Haldimand-Norfolk (110)
0.6   Bruce (110)
0.8   Elgin (110)
0.9   Grey (110)
0.6   Huron (110)
1.2   Lambton (110)
4.1   Middlesex (110)
1.0   Oxford (110)
0.7   Perth (110)
24   WESTERN ONTARIO
   
0.2   Haliburton (105)
1.4   Frontenac (105)
1.3   Hastings (105)
0.7   Lanark (105)
1.0   Leeds & Grenville (105)
0.4   Lennox & Addington (105)
0.8   Prescott & Russell (105)
0.3   Prince Edward (105)
0.9   Renfrew (105)
1.1   Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry (105)
0.7   Kawartha Lakes (105)
1.3   Peterborough (105)
0.8   Northumberland (105)
11   EASTERN ONTARIO


The above "self contained" areas are counties or cities with enough population to give them exactly a number of seats. IE Ottawa with 8. This means that no Ottawa riding should contain any area outside Ottawa, and no outside Ottawa riding should contain an area inside Ottawa. In effect, you can do the above without any consideration to any neighboring areas.

The non self-contained ridings will need to share areas with neighbours. I will begin working on these now.

MAP:

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Map plus this:

0.9   Elgin (108)
1.2   Lambton (108)
4.2   Middlesex (108)
0.7   Perth (108)
7   WESTERN ONTARIO
   
0.2   Haliburton (107)
1.4   Frontenac (107)
1.3   Hastings (107)
0.7   Lanark (107)
0.4   Lennox & Addington (107)
0.3   Prince Edward (107)
0.7   Kawartha Lakes (107)
1.3   Peterborough (107)
0.8   Northumberland (107)
7   EASTERN ONTARIO


Note that we are still WELL within the variance in ALL ridings. Ideally, no riding should have more than 111k or less than 101k. So far all the ridings I've created fit WELL within those limits.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Full Ridings (20)

Chatham-Kent
Halidmand-Norfolk
Oxford
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Stormont-Dundas-South Glencarry
Leeds-Grenville
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembrooke
Kenora—Rainy River
Timiskaming—Cochrane
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Timmins—James Bay
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Nipissing
Nickel Belt
Algoma—Manitoulin
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Buron-Bruce


_ Needs to be broken up in to _ districts

Essex - 4
Lambton, Middlesex, Elgin, Perth - 7 (includes London)
Barrie, Dufferin - 5 (Barrie)
Wellington - 2 (Guelph)
Brant, Waterloo - 6 (Brantford, Waterloo, Kitchener, Cambridge)
Niagara - 4 (Nigara Falls, St.Cathys, Welland, etc)
Hamilton - 5
Halton - 4 (Oakville, Burlington, Milton, Halton Hills/Georgetown)
Peel - 13 (Brampton, Mississauga, Caledon)
York - 10 (Vaughan, Markham, Newmarket, etc)
Toronto - 25
Ottawa - 8 (Earl is working on this)
Durham - 6 (Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax etc)
Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Peterborough, Prince Edward, Hastings, Lanark, Frontenac, Lennon and Addington - 7 (Kingston, Peterborough)



notes:

Huron-Bruce-Grey was investigated. The current Huron-Bruce riding has a proper population. The Remainder (Bruce-Grey Owen Sound, plus the municipality of Blue Mountains, currently in Simcoe Grey) would also have a proper population to be a riding in it's own riding. Hence this was done.

Wellington and Guelph were investigated. Guelph is too large and (the remainder of) Wellington too small, hence they cannot be divided this way. Part of the city of Guelph will have to remain in the more rural riding. We have two options here, we can combine Guelph with Pulnich and have a fair chunk of northern Guelph added to the Wellington riding, or, we can remove part of Southern Guelph, while keeping most of Guelph as one single riding. Although the latter option would leave the riding of Guelph as an "island" within the physically larger Wellington riding, I prefer it. Why? First, we keep Guelph together. Secondly, southern Guelph is closer to being 'rural' in nature. To add the more urban northern Guelph to Wellington, we risk diluting the nature of both ridings. Adding the more 'rural' southern Guelph while keeping Northern Guelph separate, seems far more fair.

Map updated, hit refresh.

[Hatman 🍁]

Buron-Bruce?

[Kevinstat]

Why should existing over/underrepresentation within a province be kept?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Why should existing over/underrepresentation within a province be kept?

It has not been outside the north, where laws dictate there must be an over-representation.

Ontario's Kenora riding is larger than the state of New Mexico. To ensure the people who live here actually get proper representation, we allow the riding to have a less then average number of voters. This has been the Canadian way for over a hundred years, it will not be changing any time soon nor do we want it to.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Ottawa-Vanier's boundaries can stay the same.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Ottawa-Vanier's boundaries can stay the same.

Ok, I lied. I added a bit to make the riding more compact.

I also altered Ottawa-Olreans quite a bit. It lost Blackburn Hamlet and its rural bits, and gained the subdivision east of Trim Rd.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa Centre remains the same. Ottawa South, despite losing people was too big, so I lopped off the southern bits. OWN also got some bits lopped off in the west.