French presidential election, 2017

[© tweed]

from looking around I couldn't find an existing thread for this topic.  if there is one, our dear Moderator can merge at his discretion.

here's my summary of what I could gather from the polls and gambling odds.  looks like the favorite is Sarkozy.  Le Pen is the favorite over Hollande to take second; if Hollande's numbers don't get better over the next year, he's likely to either be challenged or step down for the Socialist nomination.

in head-to-heads, the only chance Le Pen has to win in the second round is against the Socialist candidate.. the odds of Sarkozy not getting into the top two has to be long, 50/1, 75/1 type stuff.

[Simfan34]

Poison Dwarf will win if he can get the nomination.

[Zanas]

Well, there isn't a thread because there isn't a topic, yet. We're a very long way away, lots could happen. But a few things :

- a sitting President runs again. Like always. It would need a tremendous earthquake for Hollande not to run again.
- Sarkozy is nowhere near the candidate of the UMP or the gathered centre-right. Or at least nowhere near being the only candidate to run. The centre-right being very favored means ambitions will emerge, and we could see 2 or 3 or 4 right-wing and centre-right candidates.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, there isn't a thread because there isn't a topic, yet. We're a very long way away, lots could happen. But a few things :

- a sitting President runs again. Like always. It would need a tremendous earthquake for Hollande not to run again.
- Sarkozy is nowhere near the candidate of the UMP or the gathered centre-right. Or at least nowhere near being the only candidate to run. The centre-right being very favored means ambitions will emerge, and we could see 2 or 3 or 4 right-wing and centre-right candidates.

Republicans, pls

[Zanas]

Well, there isn't a thread because there isn't a topic, yet. We're a very long way away, lots could happen. But a few things :

- a sitting President runs again. Like always. It would need a tremendous earthquake for Hollande not to run again.
- Sarkozy is nowhere near the candidate of the UMP or the gathered centre-right. Or at least nowhere near being the only candidate to run. The centre-right being very favored means ambitions will emerge, and we could see 2 or 3 or 4 right-wing and centre-right candidates.

Republicans, pls

It's not a done deal, and probably won't happen.

[Vega]

Is there any chance that Hollande might get dislodged as the nominee by someone like Harlem Desir?

[© tweed]

Is there any chance that Hollande might get dislodged as the nominee by someone like Harlem Desir?

Hollande-Royal showdown for the nomination would be the best theatre, no?

[swl]

Is there any chance that Hollande might get dislodged as the nominee by someone like Harlem Desir?

Harlem Desir is non-existent, but according to some polls Valls would be the most popular candidate among center-left sympathisers, followed by Aubry and Hollande.

But a primary is for now unlikely for several reasons, one of them being that this election is a lost cause for the PS (whoever is the candidate, and it could be an humiliation if the candidate does not qualify for the second round) and the serious candidates should better wait for 2022. Better let Hollande lose and turn the page.

[© tweed]

the serious candidates should better wait for 2022. Better let Hollande lose and turn the page.

it's never better for parties as a whole to lose.  as our dear International Elections moderator once said, "parties survive on power, thrive on power, it's always better to have it".  though that obviously does not always hold true for certain superstars within the party.

if Hollande still has approvals in the mid-20s (or worse) I (as an outsider) can't imagine a viable or semi-viable politician to challenge him in the primary -- even if it's only Royal.

[swl]

You are right indeed. Also Hollande said many times that he won't run in 2017 if unemployment does not decrease. It's not easy to trust him, but he repeated it so often that he will inevitably be reminded of it.

[© tweed]

You are right indeed. Also Hollande said many times that he won't run in 2017 if unemployment does not decrease. It's not easy to trust him, but he repeated it so often that he will inevitably be reminded of it.

there's always the Nixon solution to that -- change the definition of 'unemployment'.  but unless the reality on the ground changes in the next year he'll see the writing on the wall, you'd figure he would spare himself the humiliation of polling 17% to Le Pen's 27%.

[andrew_c]

The way things are going, if Hollande runs, he will become the first sitting president to lose in the 1st round of an election.

[Zanas]

Let's make things clear : for now, Valls, and only Valls, can be the PS replacement candidate if Hollande decides not to run, or if the PS decides not to let him run. And even then, Valls will only run if he is absolutely sure he'll make it into the runoff and have good odds to win. That is to say, not happening with the current situation. Still, a lot can still change in two years.