Is Obama more popular than he ought to be?

[old timey villain]

Read this article in the 538 blog. Basically it examines historical approval rating for Presidents and how they correlate with the national mood. In the end, this blogger claims that Obama's approval rating doesn't correspond with current economic conditions and the national mood, which is still negative. Therefore, he should have had significantly lower approvals throughout his term

I think there's some truth to this. Look at Bush's approval rating in 1992. The recession was mild compared to the one we've dealing with over the past few years, yet his approvals were much lower.

So is Obama's base stronger, is he more likeable, are more Americans still blaming Bush? Check out the article, it's really interesting.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/is-obama-more-popular-than-he-should-be/

[old timey villain]

I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

[old timey villain]

I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 

You misunderstood me. I was proposing that maybe many of the vocal critics of Obama these days are people who didn't vote for him in 2008, gave him maybe a one week honeymoon, and then decided to bash him for the rest of his term. So they can legitimately say, "well I gave him a shot," when they really never gave him a shot at all. I have heard this from many, many people.

And as for this supposed swing towards Romney because he's oh so competent....whatever you say

[old timey villain]

again, whatever you say