Based on oral arguments, I'm not really seeing a categorical decision with a bright line like the Third Circuit ruled. Unfortunately, this is not the Warren Court. However, I think there's a strong majority in support of the student in her particular case (I can count as many as 7-8). I feel there's an instinct amongst the Justices that punishing this student for what she did was too far and a violation of her free speech rights. The question then is over what issues the schools can have authority over off-campus. I think the main issues are over things like threats and bullying (particularly cyberbullying). I don't see the Court giving the schools carte blanche authority over those issues, particularly if there are no laws in place (which would almost entirely concern bullying). I'm really not sure how the Court is going to handle this.
Not too bad, eh? I think the biggest surprises were Justice Breyer writing and not more Justices writing concurrences giving their thoughts.
Overall, I'm pleased with the decision, although I think the Court should have gone further in protecting the free speech rights of students. Upholding the Third Circuit entirely was never realistic though. But the First Amendment stands strong, as it should. It's a resounding victory for the student in this case. Even without bright lines though, the Court did seem to lay out some basic examples as to where the school could regulate off-campus speech, but they do seem to be quite limited. I think that could have a chilling effect on other schools attempting to do what this school district did and I think that's what the Court wants. While the Court did find the "substantial disruption" test from
Tinker applies to off-campus speech, what constitutes "substantial disruption" is quite different off-campus versus on-campus and there are also other factors to consider for off-campus. I think the bottom line that shows that this was a more significant case is this:
Given the many different kinds of off-campus speech, the different potential school-related and circumstance-specific justifications, and the differing extent to which those justifications may call for First Amendment leeway, we can, as a general matter, say little more than this: Taken together, these three features of much off-campus speech mean that the leeway the First Amendment grants to schools in light of their special characteristics is diminished. We leave for future cases to decide where, when, and how these features mean the speaker’s off-campus location will make the critical difference. This case can, however, provide one example.
I would note page 7 of the opinion, which notes the three features that limit how schools can regulate off-campus speech as opposed to on-campus speech.
I also have to say that I was surprised by Justice Alito's concurrence (which was joined by Gorsuch). While it did have some notes of originalism and a bit more Blackstone than I'd like and I wouldn't have attached my name to his concurrence for a number of reasons, it was pretty good overall. And he did make a very good point at the end:
If today’s decision teaches any lesson, it must be that the regulation of many types of off-premises student speech raises serious First Amendment concerns, and school officials should proceed cautiously before venturing into this territory.
As for Justice Thomas, wow. He's really out there. I mean, I knew he wasn't a fan of
Tinker and student free speech rights, but this shows how much of an extremist he really is. According to his dissent, he doesn't appear to be a fan of
West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette either.