My 2022 Gubernatorial Ratings.

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https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/x2lX.png

CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

Tossup - Tossup
Lean - Lean
Safe - Strong

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If I HAD to pick a gubernatorial winner in every state.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gjbE.png

PA, GA, KS, WI and MI represent the closest races.

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My mistake: IL should be at LEAN confidence for both maps.

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I think you’re seriously underestimating partisanship in blue states, esp. in MD/CO/VA/NJ/CT/OR. I’d also move TX/IA/OH one category to the right.

MD is my biggest disagreement here - it’s at least Lean D at this point, and even that’s being very generous to Republicans.

I can plausibly see the argument for all of these points. For MD, I wouldn't put it past the GOP nominee to pull off another hat trick in a R-leaning midterm. I would move a lot of states to the likely column but I decided to base it off Atlas confidence levels. Who knows where an upset will happen?

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My mistake: IL should be at LEAN confidence for both maps.

Pritzker should be fine; I'd say Likely Democratic and closer to Safe.

Plausible. To be fair, I put it at a Lean confidence but I agree it's Likely D.

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Do you really think Whitmer is favored?

Just slightly. I still think it's a true toss-up.

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I'd definitely bump up CO, IL, MN, RI, VA and VT a level in the direction of their incumbent parties.

That could happen.

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Mostly reasonable, except Kansas is Lean if not Likely R.

A bit harsh for Kelly in my opinion.

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Safe R: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Wyoming
Safe D: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island (also Virginia and New Jersey 2021)
Likely R: Florida, Iowa, Texas
Likely D: Michigan, Nevada
Lean D: Kansas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Tilt D:  Arizona
Tossup: Georgia

TBD: Massachusetts (safe R if Baker runs, safe D if he retires), New Hampshire (safe R if Sununu runs for re-election, lean D if he he chooses to run for senate instead)

Interesting.

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No changes.

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I'm still quite happy with these ratings today. Sorry for not updating this in a while.

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Actually, There is one change I'll make right now. NJ from Lean confidence D to Strong confidence D. The GOP is quickly running out of time to make something interesting happen here. I'll keep VA as Lean for the time being.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/Rgld.png

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Those are your Predictions

Yes.

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UPDATES:

CONFIDENCE MAP:

California: Strong D-Tossup (for whether to recall now, if Newsom hangs on, this instantly becomes Strong D again)

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/20pL.png

MAP IF I HAD TO PICK A WINNER FOR EVERY RACE:

California: Strong D-Lean D
Michigan: Lean D-Lean R

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/0GVn.png