United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership (user search)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 180339 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: June 09, 2016, 02:01:23 PM »
Quote from: Phony Moderate on June 08, 2016, 02:57:52 PM
Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

The "certain to vote" % (10/10) in the latest polls is only 70% though ...

I think it will be more like 70-75% in the end.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2016, 05:01:32 AM »
My prediction:

54.4% REMAIN
45.6% Leave

Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish, the Londoners and even the conservative people in the countryside will come around on election day.

Turnout: ~70%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2016, 07:51:23 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 11, 2016, 05:01:32 AM
My prediction:

54.4% REMAIN
45.6% Leave

Turnout: ~70%

Still sticking with my prediction, even after the disgusting killing of the Labour MP.

Turnout will probably be higher at ~75% though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 01:58:37 PM »
My final prediction:

53.6% Remain
46.4% Leave

Turnout: 70.3%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2016, 01:06:46 PM »
Quote from: Omega21 on June 23, 2016, 12:52:31 PM
Who benefits most from high turnout, Remain or Leave?

Probably remain, because more younger people are voting with high turnout.

But it's not 100% certain that big turnout would benefit remain.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2016, 12:10:45 AM »
Well, that was ... unexpected.

I thought the UK would vote to remain. Funny that the UK voted slightly more nationalist than Austria a month ago ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2016, 12:14:29 AM »
Quote from: Senator Smith (Labor-MA) on June 24, 2016, 12:11:55 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 24, 2016, 12:10:45 AM
Well, that was ... unexpected.

I thought the UK would vote to remain. Funny that the UK voted slightly more nationalist than Austria a month ago ... Tongue

Stop.

Huh
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2016, 01:25:23 PM »
Good map (in German, but still):

http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DHW8S/2/?fs=1
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