TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary) (user search)
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  TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary) (search mode)
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Author Topic: TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary)  (Read 4812 times)
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
« on: December 31, 2015, 06:22:06 PM »
California is, probably, one of the worst Trump states, in terms of white vote.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2016, 04:50:51 AM »
Quote from: - StatesPoll.com - on January 01, 2016, 04:40:27 AM
California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

The problem is that even if the GOP won 47% of votes in California, they would not be able to find that extra 3% needed to bring them over the top. The floor for Democratic votes in California is too high.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2016, 04:56:53 AM »
Quote from: - StatesPoll.com - on January 01, 2016, 04:53:40 AM
Quote from: Ljube on January 01, 2016, 04:50:51 AM
Quote from: - StatesPoll.com - on January 01, 2016, 04:40:27 AM
California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

The problem is that even if the GOP won 47% of votes in California, they would not be able to find that extra 3% needed to bring them over the top. The floor for Democratic votes in California is too high.

it's not neccesary to get 50% to win.
49% is enough to win. (thinking about 3rd candidates votes) even 48.5% is possible number to win.

If the nominee is Trump, he won't even come close to that. The Republicans in California are quite effluent and educated. They don't like Trump (ask Torie).
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2016, 05:22:43 AM »
Hillary will do worse than Obama among all demographics.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2016, 05:41:59 AM »
Quote from: OC on January 01, 2016, 05:38:27 AM
Quote from: Ljube on January 01, 2016, 05:22:43 AM
Hillary will do worse than Obama among all demographics.

The female vote & Latino vote, the vote she needs to carry a state like California is what really matters. Having Kamelaa Harris instead of Boxer energies younger women.

Definitely. Kamala is a great candidate.
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