MS-01 Special Election Thread

[RFayette]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

It's a different kind of conservatism though. North Mississippi is more of a strong social conservatism while South Mississippi conservatives are generally more concerned about the fiscal side of politics (this is especially true in the more 'urban' areas like Gulfport/Biloxi and Hattiesburg). South Mississippians are generally social conservatives as well, but most vote GOP because of their stances on fiscal issues.

Yes. IMHO, that's distinction is exemplified by such well-known figures of the past from NE Mississippi as  Theodore Bilbo (racist, anti-Semite, but New Dealer) and, to some extent, John Rankin (racist, anti-Semite, but, at least initially, somewhat New Dealer too). Of course - South Mississippi politicians of the past tended to be racist too (Colmer, for example), but seldom - of the same intensity...

That makes sense given the # of Dixiecrats still in Northern Mississippi.  The area seems to be very conservative now, but it certainly seems to care more about values voters.

[gespb19]

Trent Lott endorsed Sam Adcock yesterday, per his website.

[smoltchanov]

Trent Lott endorsed Sam Adcock yesterday, per his website.

An act of courtesy?

P.S. And as an afterthought: half century ago in this district it would be almost exactly opposite: about dozen Democratic candidates (probably, all - white, and, at least, right-of-center) and,  may be, a single Republican with no chances to get elected....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, the election is tomorrow. I'm predicting a Tagert/Kelly runoff.

Anyone think Zinn, the only democrat, will make the runoff?

[gespb19]

Well, the election is tomorrow. I'm predicting a Tagert/Kelly runoff.

Anyone think Zinn, the only democrat, will make the runoff?

I'd at least say he has a chance. The GOP candidates could split the vote enough to where he sneaks in the top 2.

[gespb19]

My prediction/guess

1. Mike Tagert
2. Trent Kelly
-----
3. Walter Zinn
4. Boyce Adams
5. Chip Mills

[Maxwell]

I think it'll be a surprise...

1. Mike Tagert
2. Sam Adcock
--------------------
3. Walter Zinn
4. Starner Jones
5. Trent Kelly

[NewYorkExpress]

My guess;

Making the runoff:

Mike Tagaert
Nancy Collins

Everyone else, in order
Sam Adcock
Trent Kelly
Walter Zinn
Henry Ross
Chip Mills
Boyce Adams
Quentin Whitwell
Greg Pirkle
Starner Jones
Daniel Sparks
Ed Holliday

[Del Tachi]

My bets are Tagert and Kelly in the runoff, with Adcock and Adams potentially pulling upsets to get to the #2 spot

[mds32]

Who I think will make the runoff:

Trent Kelly
Nancy Collins

Everyone else in the order which they come:
Sam Adcock
Henry Ross
Chip Mills
Walter Zinn
Boyce Adams
Quentin Whitwell
Greg Pirkle
Starner Jones
Daniel Sparks
Ed Holliday

[Del Tachi]

Nancy Collins has almost zero campaign presence.  I'm actually really surprised by how fickle her campaign has been. 

There's a bond issue in Lowndes County today, so that should boost turnout in what will otherwise be an anemic race.  Look for that to help Adams and Adcock the most.

In fact, all of y'all are underestimating Boyce Adams.  He's a top-tier candidate in this race (much more so than Nancy Collins, Henry Ross, or Chip Mills) and has a very realistic shot of making the runoff.  He has the backing of the incumbent governor's apparatus. 

Mike Tagert = Haley Barbour's campaign apparatus
Boyce Adams = Phil Bryant's apparatus
Trent Kelly = Alan Nunnelee loyalists
Sam Adcock = whatever Trent Lott has left in the state?  lol

Those four are the only serious contenders. 

[gespb19]

Secretary of State Hosemann was quoted as saying turnout is "alarmingly low".

[gespb19]

Nancy Collins has almost zero campaign presence.  I'm actually really surprised by how fickle her campaign has been. 

There's a bond issue in Lowndes County today, so that should boost turnout in what will otherwise be an anemic race.  Look for that to help Adams and Adcock the most.

In fact, all of y'all are underestimating Boyce Adams.  He's a top-tier candidate in this race (much more so than Nancy Collins, Henry Ross, or Chip Mills) and has a very realistic shot of making the runoff.  He has the backing of the incumbent governor's apparatus. 

Mike Tagert = Haley Barbour's campaign apparatus
Boyce Adams = Phil Bryant's apparatus
Trent Kelly = Alan Nunnelee loyalists
Sam Adcock = whatever Trent Lott has left in the state?  lol

Those four are the only serious contenders. 

I feel like Mills will be top 5 because I think he will take Itawamba and maybe Monroe County, which will be enough for a decent-ish finish. Wouldn't be surprised if Adams finishes top 2 but I'm not real high on Adcock. Agree on Collins though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results for Tonight: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_0512.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Polls closing in 72 Minutes.

[136or142]

ELECTION UPDATE: LIGHT TURNOUT IN THE FIRST DISTRICT, CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTION
Jackson, Miss.—As of mid-morning, the Secretary of State’s Office has seen low turnout in the Special Congressional Election with few issues reported.  Desoto and Lee County are seeing slightly higher voter turnout.

“The turnout for this election is alarmingly low,” says Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann.  “We hope Mississippians in the First District will honor the memory of former Congressman Alan Nunnelee and cast a ballot in the election.”

Absentee ballots are typically a good indicator of voter turnout.  Thus far, only 2,856 ballots have been cast in the Congressional Special election.  The average number of absentee ballots cast for each election is generally 5 to 6%.

“Our observers are noting exceptionally low turnout in the precincts,” adds Secretary Hosemann.  “We are electing one of only four Mississippi Representatives to the United States House.  It is important to our State and our Country.”

The Secretary of State’s Office sent 15 observers to the First Congressional District for the election.

http://www.sos.ms.gov/About/Pages/Press-Release.aspx?pr=607

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would be hilarious if one candidate wins outright.

It's not happening. Forget about it.

[RogueBeaver]

AOSHQDD says no results for 20-60 minutes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AOSHQDD says no results for 20-60 minutes.

Typical Mississippi.

[136or142]

First return now in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With turnout so low, why does it take that long to count the votes?

Mississippi has been a very slow counting state for years now. No one ever notices because networks can usually call it based on exit polling since it's so uncompetitive in federal/gubernatorial races, but it's (usually) a very slow counting state.

 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Results!

Name           Party   Votes   Vote %
Ross, Henry   NP   46   27%
Kelly, Trent           NP     43   25%
Tagert, Mike   NP   32   19%
Adcock, Sam   NP   12   7%
Jones, Starner   NP   12   7%
Adams, Boyce   NP   6   4%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   5   3%
Collins, Nancy   NP   4   2%
Holliday, Edward   NP   3   2%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   3   2%
Zinn, Walter   NP   2   1%
Mills, Mike           NP   1   1%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   0   0%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
13 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 3%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name    Party   Votes    Vote %
Kelly, Trent   NP   537   30%
Zinn, Walter   NP   348   19%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   143   8%
Tagert, Mike   NP   138   8%
Mills, Mike   NP   130   7%
Ross, Henry   NP   117   7%
Collins, Nancy   NP   96   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   77   4%
Jones, Starner   NP   71   4%
Holliday, Edward   NP   60   3%
Adams, Boyce   NP   49   3%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   20   1%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   13   1%

[gespb19]

Zinn has over 65% of the vote in Marshall County so far. Obama won this county in '12.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Zinn has over 65% of the vote in Marshall County so far. Obama won this county in '12.

Do you have a link for the county by county results?

They're on the AOSHQDD website.

New Results!

U.S. House - District 1 - Special General
Northeast, Tupelo
41 of 426 Precincts Reporting - 10%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Kelly, Trent   NP   1,513   26%
Zinn, Walter   NP   909   16%
Tagert, Mike   NP   549   10%
Pirkle, Greg   NP   522   9%
Holliday, Edward   NP   516   9%
Jones, Starner   NP   358   6%
Collins, Nancy   NP   346   6%
Mills, Mike   NP   333   6%
Ross, Henry   NP   270   5%
Adcock, Sam   NP   167   3%
Whitwell, Quentin   NP   108   2%
Adams, Boyce   NP   89   2%
Sparks, Daniel   NP   83   1%

[gespb19]

Mills killing it in Itawamba, thought that might happen.