Ireland Election 2007

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Red C/Sunday Business Post [Sample: 1261]
(Change on March RedC poll)
FF 35 (-1)
FG 27 (+4)
Lab 11 (-1)
GP 9 (+1)
SF 8 (-2)
PD 3 (Unchanged)
Ind 7 (-1)

This poll would give a FG/Lab/Green government, no? Even alone, FG/Lab ties FF/PD for the first time in a while.

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May might be quite the month for elections, then. France, UK locals, Scotland, Wales, Manitoba, and now Ireland.

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FTR, my own prediction currently stands as follows:

FF 70 (-9)
FG 37 (+5)
Lab 25 (+4)
GP 9 (+3)
SF 9 (+4)
PD 4 (-4)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 10 (-4)

FF/PD would need every Independent to support them in order to govern. Is that realistic?

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So what would happen? An unstable FF/PD minority (or just FF minority), an unstable FG/Lab (or maybe FG/Lab/Green) minority, a FF/Lab suicide pact, or a FF/FG grand coalition?

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So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

Nope. Never really close.

Fine Gael came 5 seats and 6% short of surpassing Fianna Fail in November 1982, the closest any party has ever come to beating Fianna Fail into second since 1932, when Fianna Fail defeated Cumann na nGaedhael, the forerunners of Fine Gael who came first in both 1927 elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election%2C_November_1982

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On numbers like that, is it possible that the PDs will get wiped out?

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Just wondering: who do you support, Jas? I don't think I know.

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When do polls close? They must have closed by now; it's 9 PM in Ireland. Will there be exit polls?

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When do polls close? They must have closed by now; it's 9 PM in Ireland. Will there be exit polls?

Just looked it up; apparently polls were open until 10:30! No wonder the Irish wait until the next day to begin counts.

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McDowell will lose his seat to Fianna Fail if that keeps up.

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Mary Harney's been elected in Dublin Mid-West, so the PDs won't be totally wiped out. The Socialists lost their seat in Dublin West, though, so they're gone.

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Except for Laois-Offaly, I've finished a map of the winners on the first vote and percentages in each constituency. FG won Mayo, Kerry North and Roscommon-South Leitrim, Independents topped the poll in Tipperary North and FF led everywhere else.

Unfortunate, imageshack is down right now. Maybe I'll work on maps by party in the meantime.

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This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost; they were much like the UK Liberals in the 1960s: a few high-profile candidates with few real ideological connections winning on local campaigns and name recognition rather than their party. Losing so many TDs is also a loss of a lot of that essential name recognition.

We shall see if Mary Harney can pull the PDs back together, but I doubt it. It's beginning to look as if this wipeout would have happened in 2002 but for the "FF Majority!" scare tactic.

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Any chance still for a FG+Lab+Green government?

Technically possible, but they'd need the PDs and every favorable Independent supporting. Highly unlikely.

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In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.