Underrated Biden advantage; Republican brain drain?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mentioned this briefly in another thread but thought it deserved its own thread

The increasing educational polarization in our politics is well known with Dems gaining with college voters and Republicans with non-college voters. Generally, the most educated dislike Trump and are leaving the GOP en-masse. On the flip side most political conspiracy theorists have found a home in the GOP, including conspiracies that used to be more associated with left-wing politics like vaccine skepticism.

This at least theoretically means Biden and Dem campaign strategists have a larger high quality pool of people to choose from to help run the campaign when it comes to things like messaging, electoral strategy, ect.

Additionally, Trump’s ego means even if the RNC has smart people they’re more likely to be ignored so Trump can spend in Virginia or somewhere silly.

It also just means Republicans are going to be more prone to situations like the whole speakership fiasco and deal with the Boeberts and Gaetz of the world.

Can this dynamic actually make enough of an impact on the election?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's a decent argument but wouldn't Dems have always had this advantage? Obama had big support among college educated voters, Gore/Kerry had an "intellectual" base against "low IQ" Republicans, and I doubt anyone ever wanted to work for Dole's DOA campaign. I think this is one of those things that's less of an advantage but more of a small detail that is baked in the cake already.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Over 150 million people voted in the last election. It isn't that hard for the Republicans to find a few good people out of them. This is the power of large numbers.

(I don't believe this is quite the same thing as the law of large numbers.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's a decent argument but wouldn't Dems have always had this advantage? Obama had big support among college educated voters, Gore/Kerry had an "intellectual" base against "low IQ" Republicans, and I doubt anyone ever wanted to work for Dole's DOA campaign. I think this is one of those things that's less of an advantage but more of a small detail that is baked in the cake already.

Yeah this is a fair point, but I wonder if it’s gotten worse. This isn’t quite analogous but in the past few years a lot of Republican rising stars with seemingly bright futures have basically left politics because they don’t like putting up with it (I.e. Gallagher, Paul Ryan, ect).

I could see a similar thing going on in the machine where many of the GOPs historically best strategists, researchers, and campaign managers just no longer want to put up with Trump all the time and have left.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Over 150 million people voted in the last election. It isn't that hard for the Republicans to find a few good people out of them. This is the power of large numbers.

(I don't believe this is quite the same thing as the law of large numbers.)

You say that but across the country state GOP’s are going bankrupt from Michigan to Colorado. The whole party is basically the Trump Legal Defense Fund

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Over 150 million people voted in the last election. It isn't that hard for the Republicans to find a few good people out of them. This is the power of large numbers.

(I don't believe this is quite the same thing as the law of large numbers.)

You say that but across the country state GOP’s are going bankrupt from Michigan to Colorado. The whole party is basically the Trump Legal Defense Fund

That's not quite the same issue, but yes, there are very weak state Republican Parties just as there are very weak state Democratic Parties like in Florida. If you point out that Michigan is a competitive state, I'd point out that probably the second weakest state Democratic Party is in New York.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think that's the big question of this election. Really, any election. What will the electorate look like? Who will it benefit? And is persuasion or turnout more important?

[Flyersfan232]

there is nothing biden can do to win my vote but they are alot he can do to make me vote trump and he is testing me hard on this the israel ammo stuff is a good a example he is blowing it on that front

[Senator Incitatus]

Educated and even intelligent people are by no means better at campaigning.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... campaign staffers are generally young people, often straight out of college.  Like 40% of young people are graduating college now, so I doubt the marginal Gen Z college grad is substantially smarter and/or more academically motivated than average anymore.  Campaign jobs don't pay well compared to most post-college jobs and aren't filled in a particularly meritocratic way, so there's no reason to expect they would disproportionately be drawing the smartest/most conscientious college grads out there. 

So no, I don't really think there's a significant brain drain effect, at least for campaign workers.  Also, keep in mind that Republican candidates/elected officials are still overwhelmingly college grads or higher in educational attainment (and from an era when many fewer people went to college).  There's literally 1 US Senator who didn't graduate a 4 year equivalent college, and he's a business owner plumber who reported 10's of millions of dollars in assets on his financial filings. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Educated and even intelligent people are by no means better at campaigning.

Not inherently, but when it comes to things like where and how to spend money, you'd much rather have intelligent people directing things.

[Del Tachi]

How many people do you think it takes to run a presidential campaign?  Millions?  There is no shortage of young, bright conservatives to staff the RNC/Trump campaign.

And the role of the parties/campaigns is over-valued, anyway.  Trump's 2016 campaign had practically no real support from the institutional GOP and he still managed to win.  If anything, he's way better off in this regard than he was 8 years ago.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden's real advantage is his experience.

As he fades into his 'nice old man' era, his legacy is a very strong attribute to consider for voters.

He would have to be one of the most experienced politicians in the US.

He has a long track record demonstrating his qualities and a vast experience of decision making to help go forward.

Biden as a Youth

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6xHu8xgmZd/

He was a pleasant young boy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be the same way in 28 Rs are gonna underrated Newsom chances, that's why I endorsed Newsom he is stronger than Harris

[Mr. Smith]

Educated and even intelligent people are by no means better at campaigning.

No means worse either.

[kwabbit]

A lot of GOP campaign professionals have just kept working for GOP campaigns even if they don't like Trump. It's not like they can just become a Dem campaign professional and don't want to throw away their careers.

A bigger effect of educational polarization is that Democrats now dominate among the professional class that represents most of small donors and consequently have much better funded campaigns. Although the dumb hick was a GOP caricature in 2004, so was the rich White person. Now a lot more of those are Democrats.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is a big long term issue for the GOP but offset by Biden not running a great campaign himself as well as terrible fundamentals.

[pbrower2a]

Well-educated people might seem more open-minded... until someone spouts nonsense. Nonsense includes pseudoscience, extremism, and empty slogans.

Well-educated people are likely to see such a slogan as "Make America Great Again"  and ask "in what way?" Life would be easier in America if we still had 150 million people instead of 350 million... but I can't say that we did so well with that few people. Jim Crow, male chauvinism, heavier smoking, polio, neglect of the handicapped, and the Red Scare? Nope. I don't miss the Blood Alley intercity roads like much of old Route 66 west of Chicago and Deadly 20 east of Chicago and the vehicular deathtraps of the 1950's. Because travel was more difficult, Americans may have had more community. Maybe we can recover that if we are wise. All that was better was that real estate was cheaper.




 

[BlueSwan]

Educated and even intelligent people are by no means better at campaigning.

True.

In general, the idea that you can pursuade people by having superior academic arguments is widespread amongst the intellectual elite, and it is DEEPLY flawed, unfortunately. Infact, simply by formulating a nuanced a well-thought-out logical argument, you risk alienating a lot of stupid people who respond more much to zingers and just appearing "strong" and not like a "nerd" or a "technocrat".

Always remember that stupid people outnumber smart people by quite a massive distance. The unfortunate reality is that democrats need to dumb down their message to regain their strength amongst the working class.