what part of the country will the democrats do best in in 2012

[freepcrusher]

by that I mean where will a lot of the pickups be? I can see them picking up a lot of seats in the great lakes areas.

I mean the republican party isn't even trying to hide their disdain for organized labor anymore. I can see the dems picking up MN 8 (Iron Range is heavily unionized), and dave obey's old seat.

Then you have a D+8 state like Illinois where republicans strangely enough have an 11-8 delegation. The 17th district is heavily unionized and I could see a backlash in that district. Although the 8th district is heavily white collar and non-union, I don't see how they will re-elect a teabagger like Joe Walsh (although Phil Crane was as nutty if not nuttier and represented that area for 30+ years).

Michigan is another state with a democratic PVI where the democrats are underrepresented. Even worse in Pennsylvania. I can see the democrats pick up some low hanging fruit there. Its interesting how in Pennsylvania you have R+5 districts held by democrats and D+5 districts held by republicans.

Another area the democrats could pick up one or two seats is Ohio. Ohio is a state where the AFL-CIO has a lot of strength and with Brown on the ballot, he may have some electoral coattails.

Another thing that helps is that you probably have a lot of "Reagan Democrats" in this region, who are quickly becoming the democratic party's prodigal son.

[freepcrusher]

@OP: Union country.

Everywhere else favors the GOP, unless Dems succeed in scaring the bejesus out of grandma.

not true at all, especially if Obama wins by 10-15 points. I could see the northern head of AZ 5 being chopped off and Harry Mitchell running again (although he will be 72 in 2012)