https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1704312969549787390?t=jSt_hSYRdSaFpWCep...
Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising, the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election. Essentially, these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.
Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.
I agree with your post other than that it implies an improved Dem environment. You can still have a more dem-leaning electorate, even if GOP precincts uniformly turn out more than Dem precincts, if there is a confounding variable within the precincts (namely differences in turnout by partisanship and education level).
The same thing happened on the NE-1 special. GOP precincts turned out more than Dem precincts in the special but the special almost certainly had higher overall Dem turnout based on how much better the GOP candidate performed in November.
I would buy into a Dem-leaning environment if we are given data that Shaler township had the same voter registration and education distribution as 2020 or 2022.
