UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems Bercow has banning another vote on May's deal unless it changes significantly which will for sure not take place by 3/29.

Good, that puts a stop to the May's "let's put the same deal to a vote for about 30 times" nonsense, leaving only a Article 50 extension or a no-deal Brexit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

May is going to write a letter to Donald Tusk, requesting an Article 50 extension. The UK government hasn't released yet how long of an extension she's planning to ask for.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/brexit-may-to-ask-eu-for-brexit-extension-as-uk-slides-into-political-crisis

[Middle-aged Europe]

May has requested a delay until June 30:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/theresa-may-asks-eu-for-brexit-delay-until-30-june

The EU's response will now be: To do what?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donald Tusk says he's willing to grant a "short" Article 50 extension, provided that the House of Commons passes the Brexit deal next week.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tusk's full statement:

In the light of the consultations that I have conducted over the past days, I believe that a short extension would be possible.

But it would be conditional on a positive vote on the withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons.

The question remains open as to the duration of such an extension.

At this time, I do not foresee an extraordinary European council.

If the leaders approve my recommendations and there is a positive vote in the House of Commons next week, we can finalise and formalise the decision on extension in the written procedure.

However, if there is such a need, I will not hesitate to invite the members of the European council for a meeting to Brussels next week.

Although Brexit fatigue is increasingly visible and justified, we cannot give up seeking until the very last moment a positive solution - of course, without opening up the withdrawal agreement.

We have reacted with patience and goodwill to numerous turns of events and I am confident that also now we will not lack the same patience and goodwill at this most critical point in this process.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, what happens now???


John Bercow: Mhm, I was just kidding, of course we can hold another vote on the deal!!

Jeremy Corbyn: Alright, since we are left with no other options now we'll vote for the damn deal.... but this is entirely Theresa May's fault and we'll only pass the Brexit deal if she calls a general election and steps down!!


?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

Nobody can't know for sure what someone votes for or not with the back against a wall.

The EU effectively says that they must either accept the Brexit deal or face a no-deal Brexit. The Speaker of the House of Commons says that this deal was already rejected and that you can't vote on the same deal twice. So, the fate of the United Kingdom depends entirely on Bercow's whims. Question is what happens if he continues to block another vote on the deal? Does May offer the EU a second referendum and will the EU accept such a proposal?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

[Middle-aged Europe]

'kay, it's probably gonna be a no-deal Brexit:


https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1108448464462114818


https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1108448558582251523

[Middle-aged Europe]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

She can still revoke Article 50 entirely without the rest of the EU consenting.

And reinvoke it to get a 2 year extension. But she probably wants an extension of less than 2 years.

If she does this she probably wouldn't be PM much longer. Either that or the Tories wouldn't exist as a single, unified party much longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU has rejected May's request for an Article 50 extension until June 30, saying May 22 (immediately before the beginning of the European Parliament elections) is the latest date für a withdrawal from the Europan Union. They're really playing hardball now:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control


Meanwhile, the UK government’s petitions website crashed after a petition asking for a revocation of Article 50 had received 1,500 signatures per minute:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems like the EU leaders discussing many different options right now.


https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1108809044356145152


The latest report is about an possible Article 50 extension until May 7, with the option to prolong it until the end of the year provided that the United Kingdom invokes this option until April 11 and agrees to participate in the EP elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Passing the Brexit deal next week as a pre-condition for granting any extension also seems to be off the table now. This option was initially preferred by Macron, who apparently was talked out of it by countries like Ireland in exchange for an (initial) extension that ends even earlier than May 22.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They're carrying on discussing this over dinner. This could take a while.

Delicious!

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1108821605952749568

[Middle-aged Europe]

'kay


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're now at "extension until May 22 if House of Commons approves deal next week, and until April 11 with the option of further extensions if the deal is voted down again".


https://twitter.com/gerardofortuna/status/1108835101977251863

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1108855848200257536

[Middle-aged Europe]

So if I'm hearing this correctly, May is willing to go for a no deal Brexit?

Either that or it's just her "strategy" to pretend that she will.

I'm not really sure whether May herself knows at this point if she's gonna go for no-deal Brexit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

1.The European Council takes note of the letter of Prime Minister Theresa May of 20 March 2019.

2.In response, the European Council approves the Instrument relating to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Joint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration agreed between the European Commission and the government of the United Kingdom in Strasbourg on 11 March 2019.

3.The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.

4.The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement that was agreed between the Union and the United Kingdom in November 2018. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement.

5.The European Council calls for work to be continued on preparedness and contingency at all levels for the consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal, taking into account all possible outcomes.

6.The European Council will remain seized of the matter.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38744/21-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf


At least we know now that Brexit is not going to happen on March 29. Stay tuned!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following more than an hour of explanations that with days left until Britain might crash out she could win over lawmakers who have twice rejected her EU withdrawal deal, May left the summit room on Thursday and the other 27 leaders conferred — finding a consensus that they were even less convinced than before, officials familiar with their discussions told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron told the room that before coming to Brussels he had thought May had only a 10 percent chance of winning the vote. After listening to the prime minister, he said, he had cut his estimate — to five percent.

To general assent, one person present said, summit chair Donald Tusk shot back that Macron was being “very optimistic”.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

[Middle-aged Europe]

So are we going to have to elect EU Parliamentarians...?

We won't know that before the second week of April, apparently.

Since the House of Commons will in all likelihood reject the Brexit deal for a third time, the current extension will probably last only until April 12. Then the EU will want to know whether the UK prefers a no-deal Brexit or some sort of other solution which then would recquire another extension and a participation of the UK in the EP elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's real pity that you can't hold "either/or" votes btw.

Otherwise you could simply force the House of Commons to choose to vote for either a no-deal Brexit, the withdrawal agreement, or revoking Article 50 altogether. If neither option receives a majority on the first ballot, there would be a run-off between the two options with the most votes. A no vote wouldn't be possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Britain is saved! Uri Geller personally takes control of the Brexit process:


https://twitter.com/JewishTelegraph/status/1109145636216152065

[Middle-aged Europe]

Unfortunately I don't have any pictures of the anti-Brexit rally by Scottish expatriates I witnessed a couple of weeks ago at the Alexanderplatz. But here's an advertisement for a "Brexit special" at a Japanese karaoke joint in Berlin:

[Middle-aged Europe]

No-deal Brexit or Brexit cancellation.... from that point on, there would always be one side in British politics who would never forgive this and that's a reality British society will have to face.