Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).

[Sam Spade]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)
2) Sealing the deal (A certain bit of the big movement will stick, more likely than not it would have happened anyway, but the polling says that Sestak's "made the offer".  Over the next few days, we'll know whether he can close the deal.  Recently, think of this as similar to what happened in Britain.)

[Sam Spade]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

Indeed, as I've said countless times, competitive primaries really screw up general election polling as, in the heat of the primary, staunch supporters of one candidate always claim that they could NEVER back the other candidate, which isn't usually quite the case.

The question, however, is who is more likely to win back the support of the entire Democratic coalition?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, will be able to turn out voters that the other one wouldn't?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, is best able to appeal to moderate Democrats who supported the other, but are torn between Toomey and them?  Does Specter's biography as a senior, as a moderate Republican, as someone connected to the Democratic machine, matter more, or does Sestak's biography as a consistent progressive, as a military veteran, do more for appeal?

I pay very little attention to GE polling during competitive primaries - totally agree on that front.

[Sam Spade]

Sestak retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

You mean Specter right, wrt the Muhlenberg thingy?